Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 182346
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
646 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY OBVIOUSLY ACHIEVE SEVERITY...HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WEST OF I-135.
AS WAS EXPECTED...THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN AREAS WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED AND WITH 55-60F DEWPOINTS DESTABLIZATION WAS FAIRLY
RAPID. AT 252 PM CDT PING PONG BALL-SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
BARTON COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TONIGHT:
OBVIOUSLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRAWING GREATEST ATTENTION. THE
WELL-DEFINED MID-UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN A TOPIC THE PAST 3 OR
4 DAYS IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER TO PROMOTE DECENT UPPER
DECK DIFFLUENCE. WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW STILL SITUATED
OVER EASTERN KS INDUCING MODEST E-SE LOWER-DECK FLOW...DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL...SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE WITH
30-40KTS LIKELY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MODEST UPPER-DECK COLD
ADVECTION APPROACHING CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS LARGE HAIL
PERHAPS 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. MOST
FACETS OF INHERITED FORECAST ARE KEPT INTACT. LATE TONIGHT THE
UPPER-DECK LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL EVOLVE INTO A WAVE AS IT
PHASES WITH A 2ND UPPER-DECK WAVE SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. BOTH WILL TEAM TO SWEEP A COLD FRONT
SE THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS THE 2 UPPER WAVES PHASE THE SOUTHERN COHORT WOULD WEAKEN. THIS
WOULD LIKELY CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO DECELLERATE AS IT APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO
MORE SO THAN IT`S COHORTS AND IS BEING FOLLOWED. AS SUCH THE AIR
MASS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WOULD DESTABILIZE CONSIDERABLY. AS SUCH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR SOUTHEAST KS WOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
& WITH THE NAM PREFERRED MLCAPES FROM 2,000-2,300 "CARAT JEWELS"
ARE LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MODEST UPPER-DECK
COLD ADVECTION TARGETING THIS AREA LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS GOLF BALL
SIZED...WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES SE OF THIS AREA DEEP BRISK NW FLOW SPREADS SE ACROSS
KS THEREBY SHUNTING THE SEVERE THREAT S-SE OF KICT COUNTRY EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THE WORK-WEEK SHOULD START QUIETLY AS AN INTENSE MID-UPPER CYCLONE
BEGINS TO GYRATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PER GFS & ECMWF. THIS WOULD
DRIVE LARGE BU WEAK HIGH PRESSURE E/SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL &
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD WED & WED NIGHT
BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS HAVE KEPT FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 641 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

MESOSCALE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS...SHOULD PROGRESS SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...AS A WEAK LOW-
LEVEL JET DEVELOPS AND GRADUALLY VEERS NORTHEAST. ICT AND CNU
TERMINALS STAND THE BEST PROBABILITY OF BEING IMPACTED BY
THUNDERSTORMS. WINDS WILL BE HIGHLY VARIABLE OVERNIGHT BEHIND
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS COULD AFFECT CNU TERMINAL SUNDAY...WITH WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE UPPER
TROUGH ADVANCES EASTWARD THRU EASTERN KS/OK.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP THE GRASSLAND
FIRE IN CHECK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  64  40  62 /  80  80  10   0
HUTCHINSON      53  60  39  62 /  80  70  10   0
NEWTON          54  61  40  60 /  80  80  10   0
ELDORADO        55  67  42  62 /  80  90  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  68  41  63 /  80  90  10   0
RUSSELL         52  60  37  61 /  70  80  10   0
GREAT BEND      51  60  36  60 /  70  70  10   0
SALINA          53  60  39  62 /  80  70  10   0
MCPHERSON       53  59  39  61 /  80  70  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     57  68  43  64 /  70  80  20  10
CHANUTE         57  68  43  63 /  70  90  20  10
IOLA            57  67  43  62 /  70  90  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    57  68  43  63 /  70  80  20  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.