Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 140740
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
240 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS IS
PROGGED TO DAMPEN AS IT MOVES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES THROUGH
TONIGHT. LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITHIN AN AREA OF
ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF THE
KANSAS TURNPIKE BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
LIGHT THROUGH TONIGHT. LIMITED INSOLATION MAY KEEP HIGHS FROM RISING
OUT OF THE 50S ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY
LINGER INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON WED...HOWEVER SHORTWAVE RIDGING
WILL ARRIVE BY MIDDAY BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION. WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS...HIGHS ARE EXPECTED
TO RETURN TO SEASONABLE VALUES WITH READINGS IN THE UPPER 60S/AROUND
70.

ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE/MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED TO INCREASE WITH A
DEVELOPING LLJ WED NIGHT AS A MID/UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT SPREADS DOWNSTREAM ACROSS
THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. MAINTAINED LIKELY POPS INTO THURSDAY &
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SLOWLY SOUTH AND
EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

UNSETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
SUNDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE GFS IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WHEN COMPARED TO THE
ECMWF SUPPORTING DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS AS WE MOVE INTO THE
BEGINNING OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY MAINTAINED
LOW POPS EARLY IN THE WEEK AS THE MID/UPPER FLOW TRANSITIONS TO
NORTHWEST ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1140 PM CDT MON APR 13 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24HRS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
KANSAS...AS HIGH AND MID-LEVEL CLOUDS FLOAT OVERHEAD. NORTHEAST
WINDS TONIGHT WILL GRADUALLY SWITCH TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST DURING
THE MORNING HOURS ON TUESDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 226 AM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RECENT RAIN AND THE
OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  47  68  54 /  20  30  10  50
HUTCHINSON      64  46  68  52 /  20  20  10  50
NEWTON          63  46  67  52 /  20  30  10  40
ELDORADO        62  46  67  53 /  30  30  10  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   60  48  68  55 /  30  40  10  30
RUSSELL         67  44  68  50 /  10  10  10  50
GREAT BEND      66  44  68  50 /  10  10  10  50
SALINA          66  45  67  51 /  10  20  10  40
MCPHERSON       64  45  67  51 /  20  20  10  40
COFFEYVILLE     58  50  67  53 /  50  50  20  20
CHANUTE         60  48  66  52 /  30  40  20  20
IOLA            61  48  65  52 /  30  40  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    59  49  67  53 /  40  50  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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