Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 010830
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
330 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 330 CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE PERSISTED OVER NORTHWEST KS NEAR SE-MOVING
DECELERATING SURFACE TROF. UPSTAIRS...A RIDGE IS PUNCHING NE FROM
AZ & NM TO LAKE SUPERIOR THEN ALMOST DUE NORTH TO HUDSON BAY WITH
BY FAR THE SHARPEST AMPLITUDE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN DAKOTAS
TO HUDSON BAY. WEAK SE LOWER DECK FLOW HAS PREVAILED ACROSS MOST
OF KS WHICH HAS HELPED TO CAUSE ONLY SLIGHTLY COOLING TEMPERATURES
IN THE LOWER-MID 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

TODAY-SUN:
WITH BROADENING MID-UPPER DECK RIDGING SLOWLY TRANSITIONING INTO A
WEAK ZONAL REGIME OVER THE CENTRAL & SOUTHERN PLAINS ANY SHOWER &
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WOULD BE CONFINED TO IA & NEBRASKA & AREAS
TO THE NORTH WHERE MUCH CLOSER TO A SHARPENING UPPER-DECK THAT`LL
SPRINT E FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA REACHING THE MANITOBA/ONTARIO
BORDER SUNDAY NIGHT. AS THE APPROACHING MID-UPER DECK SHORTWAVE
CROSSES THE ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWN BORDER SAT EVENING A SURFACE TROF
WILL DEVELOP IN A NORTH-SOUTH MANNER CLOSE TO THE CO/KS BORDER AS
IS OFTEN THE CASE. THIS WOULD ENABLE LOWER DECK FLOW TO BECOME DUE
SOUTH & SLOWLY ASSERT ITSELF THIS WEEKEND. A SUCH A GRADUAL WARMING
TREND IS STILL SLATED FOR ALL AREAS THIS WEEKEND. THUNDERSTORMS ARE
STILL SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE SUNDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY CENTRAL KS).
THE PATTERN UPSTAIRS OVER THE KS NEIGHBORHOOD IS FEEBLE SO ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BEHAVE THEMSELVES.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 330 AM CDT FRI MAY 1 2015

CHANCES FOR RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
A COLD FRONT SAGS S/SE INTO CENTRAL KS ON MONDAYAS THE AFORE
MENTIONED UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE SPRINTS E ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA.
WITH THE UPPER-DECK SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THEN CROSSES ONTARIO &
QUEBEC MON & MON NIGHT THE FRONT SHOULD STALL IN AN ALMOST E-W
MANNER THROUGH NORTHERN & CENTRAL KS. AS THE SHORTWAVE CROSSES
QUEBEC MON NIGHT THE STALLING FRONT SHOULD EXPERIENCE WARM
FRONTOGENESIS & LIFT N/NW ACROSS NEBRASKA THEN DISSIPATE AS IT
VENTURES TOWARD THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON TUE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1126 PM CDT THU APR 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD. SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS IS POSSIBLE FRI IN CENTRAL KS. OUTSIDE
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION INVOF KRSL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON/
EVENING...BUT CHANCES APPEAR TO BE TOO SMALL TO MENTION AT THIS
TIME. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    77  56  82  60 /   0   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      77  56  83  60 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          76  56  81  59 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        77  56  80  60 /   0   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  56  81  60 /   0   0  10  10
RUSSELL         78  57  85  60 /  20  20  10  10
GREAT BEND      79  56  86  59 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          77  56  83  61 /  10  20  10  10
MCPHERSON       77  57  82  60 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     77  53  79  58 /   0   0  10  10
CHANUTE         76  53  78  58 /   0   0  10  10
IOLA            75  53  78  58 /   0   0  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    76  53  78  59 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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