Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 160809
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
309 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A VIGOROUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. AS THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PERIODIC STORMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO EXIT TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING WITHIN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
PARCELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WEAKLY CAPPED NEAR H85 AND MAINTAINED
LOW POPS FOR ANY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES REMAINING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OR ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 14. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE
SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. MAINTAINED
LOW POPS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ABUNDANT
INSTABILITY.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS ON BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME TO A RAPID
DEMISE AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. MAINTAINED LOW POPS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1136 PM CDT WED APR 15 2015

MAIN AVIATION CONCERNS REMAINS THE LOW CLOUD AND FOG POTENTIAL.

CHANGE FROM 00Z TAFS IS TO GO AHEAD AND INSERT SOME IFR
CONDITIONS AFTER 09Z AT ALL SITES AS MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT
DROPPING CONDITIONS DOWN. INCREASING MOISTURE COMBINED WITH SOME
UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LOW CLOUDS IN A FEW HOURS IN
ADDITION TO SOME 2-4SM BR. STILL FEEL THAT KHUT-KRSL WILL HAVE
THE BEST SHOT AT SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS AND VIS LESS THAN 3SM
ALONG WITH KCNU WHERE MOISTURE WILL BE DEEPER. CLEARED THESE
CEILINGS OUT AROUND 16Z BUT WOULDN`T BE TOO SHOCKED IF THEY
PERSIST SLIGHTLY LONGER. ALSO WENT AHEAD AND TOOK VCTS OUT OF KRSL
AS THE BETTER CHANCES LOOK TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST.

LAWSON


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...AND
THE OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  57  72  55 /  30  50  70  60
HUTCHINSON      74  55  72  54 /  40  60  70  60
NEWTON          75  56  71  55 /  30  50  70  60
ELDORADO        75  57  73  56 /  20  40  70  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  57  74  57 /  20  50  70  60
RUSSELL         70  52  70  50 /  80  80  70  60
GREAT BEND      72  53  70  49 /  70  80  70  60
SALINA          74  55  72  55 /  40  60  70  60
MCPHERSON       73  55  72  55 /  40  50  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  58  75  58 /  10  30  60  60
CHANUTE         76  57  75  59 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            75  57  76  59 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    76  57  75  58 /  10  30  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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