Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 150437
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER KANSAS/OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...WILL EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
WHILE SLOWLY WEAKENING. THIS WILL BE IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE ROCKIES. WILL MAINTAIN A LOW CHANCE
(20-40%) OF VERY LIGHT SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...MAINLY FOR ALONG/EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE WHERE
RELATIVELY HIGHER PRECIPITABLE WATER IS PROGGED. SUBSIDENCE BEHIND
THE DEPARTING WAVE WILL END ANY REMAINING SHOWERS WED PM.
OTHERWISE...TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR CLIMO AVERAGE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY.

ISOLATED STRONG SURFACE-BASED STORMS MAY FORM NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
LATE WED PM/EVE OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...SUPPORTED BY
STRONG INSOLATION/MARGINAL INSTABILITY...MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
FALLS...AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE A
WEAKER WAVE EJECTING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES UPPER
LOW...ACROSS CENTRAL KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE COINCIDENT
WITH A DEVELOPING LOW-LEVEL JET WHICH WILL ALLOW ELEVATED
INSTABILITY TO SPREAD INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS OVERNIGHT. A
CLUSTER OR TWO OF NOCTURNAL ELEVATED STORMS APPEARS REASONABLE IN
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE OPERATIONAL GFS WAS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH MOVING THE UPPER LOW
EASTWARD THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT COMPARED TO THE ENSEMBLE
MEAN. IT APPEARS INFLUENCED BY A SHORTWAVE DIGGING OUT OF SOUTH
CENTRAL CANADA. THE UKMET/CANADIAN/ECMWF KEEP THE UPPER LOW PINCHED
OFF FROM THE NORTHERN BRANCH THROUGH FRIDAY WAITING FOR A SYSTEM TO
DIG OUT OF SOUTHWESTERN CANADA. WITH CONFIDENCE BELOW
AVERAGE...LEANED TOWARD THE SLOWER EJECTING OF THE ROCKIES UPPER
LOW. THEREFORE...A PERIOD OR TWO OF SHOWERS/THUNDER APPEARS VERY
REASONABLE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT WILL NOT RAIN
THE ENTIRE TIME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES
THURSDAY-FRIDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

THE UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO EJECT EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS OVER THE WEEKEND...WITH A DEEP UPPER TROUGH FORMING
OVER THE GREAT LAKES BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THEREFORE...EXPECTING
PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO DIMINISH BY LATE SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH UPPER
PATTERN DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AND CONFIDENCE BELOW AVERAGE EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WILL CARRY MAINLY A DRY FORECAST FOR NOW. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL...SPRING-LIKE AVERAGES FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1125 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER FOR TONIGHT INTO THE MORNING
HOURS...AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES. THE LOW CLOUD HEIGHTS
SHOULD BEGIN TO IMPROVE DURING THE LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON
HOURS...WITH SOUTHEAST WINDS INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

JAKUB

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 308 PM CDT TUE APR 14 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...AND
THE OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    44  68  53  71 /  20  10  30  50
HUTCHINSON      44  68  51  70 /  20  10  30  60
NEWTON          44  67  51  70 /  20  10  20  50
ELDORADO        45  67  52  72 /  30  10  20  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   45  68  54  73 /  30  10  20  40
RUSSELL         40  68  49  66 /  10  10  50  60
GREAT BEND      41  68  49  68 /  10  10  50  60
SALINA          43  67  50  68 /  20  10  30  50
MCPHERSON       44  67  50  69 /  20  10  30  60
COFFEYVILLE     48  67  52  75 /  40  20  10  30
CHANUTE         46  66  51  73 /  40  20  10  30
IOLA            46  65  51  73 /  40  20  10  30
PARSONS-KPPF    47  67  52  75 /  40  20  10  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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