Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS63 KICT 190505
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1205 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH MAY OBVIOUSLY ACHIEVE SEVERITY...HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WEST OF I-135.
AS WAS EXPECTED...THE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED IN AREAS WHERE SKIES
HAD CLEARED AND WITH 55-60F DEWPOINTS DESTABLIZATION WAS FAIRLY
RAPID. AT 252 PM CDT PING PONG BALL-SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED IN
BARTON COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

TONIGHT:
OBVIOUSLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE DRAWING GREATEST ATTENTION. THE
WELL-DEFINED MID-UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAS BEEN A TOPIC THE PAST 3 OR
4 DAYS IS DRIFTING TOWARD THE CO/KS BORDER TO PROMOTE DECENT UPPER
DECK DIFFLUENCE. WITH THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW STILL SITUATED
OVER EASTERN KS INDUCING MODEST E-SE LOWER-DECK FLOW...DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR...BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL...SHOULD SLOWLY INCREASE WITH
30-40KTS LIKELY BY EARLY THIS EVENING. WITH MODEST UPPER-DECK COLD
ADVECTION APPROACHING CENTRAL & SOUTH-CENTRAL KS LARGE HAIL
PERHAPS 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT. MOST
FACETS OF INHERITED FORECAST ARE KEPT INTACT. LATE TONIGHT THE
UPPER-DECK LOW OVER EASTERN CO WILL EVOLVE INTO A WAVE AS IT
PHASES WITH A 2ND UPPER-DECK WAVE SWEEPING EAST ACROSS THE
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA BORDER. BOTH WILL TEAM TO SWEEP A COLD FRONT
SE THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND WESTERN KANSAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

SUNDAY & SUNDAY NIGHT:
THE SOUTHEAST PROGRESS OF THE COLD FRONT WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY.
AS THE 2 UPPER WAVES PHASE THE SOUTHERN COHORT WOULD WEAKEN. THIS
WOULD LIKELY CAUSE THE COLD FRONT TO DECELLERATE AS IT APPROACHES
SOUTHEAST KS EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE NAM DEPICTS THIS SCENARIO
MORE SO THAN IT`S COHORTS AND IS BEING FOLLOWED. AS SUCH THE AIR
MASS OVER SOUTHEAST KS WOULD DESTABILIZE CONSIDERABLY. AS SUCH
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM FOR SOUTHEAST KS WOULD INCREASE CONSIDERABLY
& WITH THE NAM PREFERRED MLCAPES FROM 2,000-2,300 "CARAT JEWELS"
ARE LIKELY EARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. COMBINED WITH MODEST UPPER-DECK
COLD ADVECTION TARGETING THIS AREA LARGE HAIL...PERHAPS GOLF BALL
SIZED...WOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREAT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AS THE COLD
FRONT PUSHES SE OF THIS AREA DEEP BRISK NW FLOW SPREADS SE ACROSS
KS THEREBY SHUNTING THE SEVERE THREAT S-SE OF KICT COUNTRY EARLY
SUNDAY EVENING.

MONDAY-TUESDAY:
THE WORK-WEEK SHOULD START QUIETLY AS AN INTENSE MID-UPPER CYCLONE
BEGINS TO GYRATE OVER THE GREAT LAKES PER GFS & ECMWF. THIS WOULD
DRIVE LARGE BU WEAK HIGH PRESSURE E/SE ACROSS THE CENTRAL &
SOUTHERN PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD RETURN TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD WED & WED NIGHT
BUT WITH DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS HAVE KEPT FORECAST ESSENTIALLY
UNCHANGED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1201 AM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

MESOSCALE COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER S-CNTRL KS/FLINT HILLS
SHOULD CONTINUE PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD OVERNIGHT. TSRA WILL
AFFECT ICT IN THE FIRST COUPLE HOURS OF TAF VALID PERIOD...AND THE
CNU TERMINAL OVERNIGHT. VARIABLE WINDS WILL FOLLOW IN ITS WAKE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS. MVFR
VSBYS POSSIBLE IN LIGHT FOG EARLY SUNDAY MORNING IN CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL KS.

ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN KS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY.

JMC

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 358 PM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAIN & THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP THE GRASSLAND
FIRE IN CHECK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    40  62  40  67 /  10   0  10  10
HUTCHINSON      39  62  39  68 /  10   0  10  10
NEWTON          40  60  39  65 /  10   0  10  10
ELDORADO        42  62  40  66 /  10   0  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   41  63  41  66 /  10   0  10  10
RUSSELL         37  61  36  68 /  10   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      36  60  37  68 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          39  62  37  67 /  10   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       39  61  38  66 /  10   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     43  64  42  66 /  20  10  10  10
CHANUTE         43  63  40  65 /  20  10  10  10
IOLA            43  62  40  64 /  20  10   0  10
PARSONS-KPPF    43  63  41  66 /  20  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.