Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 011757
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1257 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1032 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED...AIDED BY A REMNANT MCV OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS
WILL IMPACT EXTREME PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST KANSAS. EXPECT THIS
QUICKLY MOVE OFF OVER MISSOURI...NOT IMPACTING SOUTHEAST KANSAS
MUCH OR FOR VERY LONG...AND NO SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. DID
UPDATE THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDER FOR THESE AREAS THOUGH.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND EARLY THIS MORNING AS WARM
FRONT/RICHER GULF MOISTURE MOVES NORTHWARD...ALONG WITH SOME
ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR SOUTHEAST KANSAS. COULD ALSO SEE
SOME PATCHY FOG WITH THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. ANOTHER VERY
WARM DAY WILL BE ON TAP ACROSS KANSAS ALONG WITH GUSTY SOUTH WINDS.
MEANWHILE...CURRENT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A HEALTHY
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OVER IDAHO/MONTANA. THIS UPPER WAVE WILL RACE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS FOR TODAY INTO TONIGHT...THUS
FORCING A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NEBRASKA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON THEN ZIPPER SOUTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT INTO
NORTHERN/WESTERN KANSAS. THE STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY FORM INTO A LINE
ALONG THE SURFACE COLD FRONT...WITH THE LINE OF STORMS AFFECTING
MAINLY NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. THE ACTIVITY WILL
SPREAD EASTWARD OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
POSSIBLE...HOWEVER THE BETTER SHEAR ALOFT IS LAGGING BEHIND A BIT.

THE MODELS SHOW THE SURFACE FRONT STALLING OUT ACROSS SOUTHEAST
KANSAS OR NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA ON THURSDAY...WITH EVEN RICHER GULF
MOISTURE PILING UP ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT. A SECOND UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE ROCKIES FOR
THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF ACTIVE WEATHER THURSDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT. THE THURSDAY SETUP
WILL HAVE MUCH STRONGER SHEAR ALOFT AND BETTER INSTABILITY THAN
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SEVERITY POTENTIAL OF THE STORMS
ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH COULD AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR AND GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL OVERSPREAD KANSAS
ON FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THURSDAY`S UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

A WARMING TREND WILL BE IN STORE FOR KANSAS THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK...AS THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN TRANSITIONS TO A SOUTHWEST
FLOW REGIME AND BRINGS WARMER LOW LEVEL AIR INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.
COULD SEE SOME SLIGHT CHANCES OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT THE BETTER
CHANCES LOOK TO HOLD OFF UNTIL THE NEXT FRONT ARRIVES POSSIBLY BY
TUESDAY IF THE LATEST LONG RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN IS THE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
LATER TONIGHT. CURRENTLY AN MCV HAS SPARKED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST KANSAS...BUT THIS IS OUT OF THE AREA OF CONCERN
AND SHOULD NOT IMPACT KCNU. THE LATEST HIGHER-RESOLUTION SHORT-
TERM GUIDANCE HAS SLOWED THE INITIATION OF THE STORMS DOWN
SLIGHTLY AND THINK THE BETTER CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOR THE KRSL AND KSLN TERMINALS AND EVENTUALLY KCNU TOWARDS
MORNING. THINK THE KRSL/KSLN TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED AFTER 00Z
WITH KSLN CLOSER TO 06Z. THE KHUT TERMINAL IS ON THE SOUTHERN END
OF THE AREA OF BEING IMPACTED...AND KICT IS NOT OUT OF IT
EITHER...BUT HAVE LEFT THE MENTION OUT AT THIS TIME. AND FOR NOW
HAVE ONLY INCLUDE VCTS AT KRSL/KSLN AND KCNU. ANY THUNDERSTORM
COULD DROP FLIGHT CONDITIONS TO MVFR OR IFR...BUT TIMING THAT
RIGHT NOW IS DIFFICULT SO WILL ALLOW THE LATER 00Z ISSUANCE TO
FOCUS ON THAT WITH THE THINKING THAT THE LATER INITIATION TIME
WILL BE LATER.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 249 AM CDT WED APR 1 2015

THE COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY DRY AIR AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS TODAY
WILL RESULT IN EXTREME AND VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS
THIS AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST RED FLAG WARNING FOR MORE DETAILS
ON THE HIGH RISK AREA...NO OUTDOOR RECOMMENDED FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
TODAY. PERIODS OF VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    86  56  71  45 /  10  30  20  30
HUTCHINSON      86  53  69  43 /  10  40  10  20
NEWTON          85  56  69  43 /  10  40  20  30
ELDORADO        84  58  71  45 /  10  40  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   86  59  73  47 /  10  20  30  40
RUSSELL         88  46  67  38 /  20  60  10  30
GREAT BEND      87  48  68  39 /  20  60  10  20
SALINA          86  51  67  40 /  10  70  10  20
MCPHERSON       85  53  68  42 /  10  50  10  20
COFFEYVILLE     83  63  76  49 /  20  20  50  70
CHANUTE         82  62  72  47 /  10  40  50  60
IOLA            81  62  70  46 /  10  60  50  50
PARSONS-KPPF    82  63  74  48 /  20  20  50  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>069-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$


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