Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 271803
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
103 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

EARLY MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A WELL-DEFINED UPPER
LOW MEANDERING SLOWLY EAST OVER THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. AN
ASSOCIATED LOBE OF MID-LEVEL VORTICITY...COUPLED WITH A ZONE OF
850-700MB FRONTOGENESIS/CONVERGENCE BENEATH STRONG DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT HAS RESULTED IN AN WEST-EAST BAND OF RAIN/EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING. DUAL POL
RADAR ESTIMATES INDICATE NEAR ONE INCH OF RAIN HAS ALREADY FALLEN
ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF HARPER-SUMNER COUNTIES. WITH
THE UPPER LOW TRACKING EAST TODAY ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND MAKING
LITTLE TO NO NORTHWARD JOG...ANTICIPATE THE VAST MAJORITY OF
RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN OVER FAR SOUTHERN KS
TODAY...MAINLY SOUTH OF A LINE EXTENDING FROM HUTCHINSON-WICHITA-
CHANUTE. LITTLE TO NO RAIN IS EXPECTED NORTH OF THIS LINE.
WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL HOLD TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S-60S TODAY.
ANTICIPATE THE PRECIPITATION TO GRADUALLY EXIT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT. STORM-TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TONIGHT WILL
EXCEED ONE INCH NEAR THE OK BORDER OF SOUTH- CENTRAL KS...WITH UP
TO ONE-HALF INCH NEAR OK BORDER OVER SOUTHEAST KS. LIMITED
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

DRY AND TRANQUIL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AS
UPPER RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD OVER MID-AMERICA. BUILDING
HEIGHTS/THICKNESS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB INTO THE 70S BY
WEDNESDAY.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT MON APR 27 2015

A FLATTENING WESTERN CONUS RIDGE AND ASSOCIATED STRONGER WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE FRONT RANGE WILL ALLOW LEE TROUGHING TO
COMMENCE BY THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY
FLOW...WARMER TEMPERATURES AND MODEST NORTHWARD MOISTURE RETURN BY
LATE WEEK. GFS/ECMWF LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT MID- UPPER 70S
THU-FRI...WITH 80S LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND. PER MODEL CONSENSUS...A
WEEK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ATTEMPT TO PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL KS
LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND...AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY RACES ACROSS THE
NORTHERN CONUS. CONSEQUENTLY...THINKING LOW PROBABILITIES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST OVER MAINLY WESTERN...CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN KS FROM FRIDAY NIGHT ONWARD. MEAGER MOISTURE/INSTABILITY
AND LIMITED FORCING WILL LIKELY LIMIT SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

A QUICK GLANCE AT THE VERY LONG RANGE PORTION OF THE GFS/ECMWF
SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE RETURN TO A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN
THUNDERSTORM-WISE BY NEXT WEEK...AS A MEAN WESTERN CONUS TROUGH
BECOMES ESTABLISHED AND HIGHER QUALITY LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS
NORTH INTO THE HEARTLAND.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1245 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH THE NEXT
24 HOURS AND LIKELY BEYOND.

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO CHURN OVER THE TX PANHANDLE WITH THIS
FEATURE EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY SLOW OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. BY 12Z
TUE THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHEAST TX AND APPROACHING THE
ARKLATEX REGION. SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FAR SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECTED TO STAY FAR
ENOUGH SOUTH TO MISS ALL TAF SITES. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT
CEILINGS WILL REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS WITH WINDS COMING AROUND TO THE
NORTHEAST AND EVENTUALLY NORTH.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    60  45  68  44 /  30  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      61  43  69  42 /  10  10   0  10
NEWTON          61  43  66  44 /  10  10   0  10
ELDORADO        61  44  67  43 /  20  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  45  67  43 /  80  40  20  10
RUSSELL         64  40  69  43 /  10   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      63  40  68  41 /  10  10   0  10
SALINA          65  42  70  43 /  10   0   0  10
MCPHERSON       63  42  68  43 /  10  10   0  10
COFFEYVILLE     62  46  66  44 /  30  30  20  10
CHANUTE         63  45  66  43 /  10  10  10  10
IOLA            63  44  66  43 /  10  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    62  46  66  43 /  20  20  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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