Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 201138
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
638 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT:
OTHERWISE STRAIGHT FORWARD FORECAST COMPLICATED BY TRANSIENT
RIPPLE IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. RELATIVELY DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER
SHOULD KEEP IT LIMITED TO A FEW SPRINKLES AT BEST. AMOUNT/
LONGEVITY OF DENSE MID CLOUDS COULD CUT INTO MAXES OVER WEST/
SOUTHWEST SECTIONS OF FORECAST AREA. SOME PATCHY FROST IS ALSO
POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL KS...HOWEVER
INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT SHOULD LIMIT FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

TUE-WED:
FOCUS THIS PERIOD TURNS TO RETURN FLOW...AND WHEN EXACTLY THAT
WILL OCCUR. THIS IS FURTHER COMPLICATED BY COLD FRONT BACKDOORING
INTO THE AREA. SOUTHWARD PROGRESS OF THIS FRONT WILL LIKELY
IMPACT TEMPERATURES. THE COMBO OF RETURN FLOW AND SURFACE BOUNDARY
MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME PRECIPITATION. NOT ENTIRELY THRILLED
TO HAVE HAVE PRECIPITATION IN THE FORECAST THIS PERIOD...GIVEN
PROPENSITY OF MODELS TO OVERDO THE RETURN FLOW EARLY ON...BUT WILL
KEEP SOME IN THERE STARTING TUE-TUE NIGHT AND AGAIN ON WED-WED
NIGHT. AT THIS POINT BELIEVE ABOUT THE ONLY REAL CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION IS WED NIGHT IN FAR SOUTHWEST SECTIONS...AS MODELS
TYPICALLY DRIBBLE TOO MUCH LIGHT QPF IN UPSLOPE FLOW. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING ONCE AGAIN WITH TRANSITION IN
UPPER FLOW AS TROUGH/LOW IN THE SOUTHWEST EJECTS INTO THE PLAINS
WHILE ANOTHER WAVE MOVES INTO NORTHWESTERN US. THIS IS EVIDENT IN
THE POSITION OF THE WOUND UP SURFACE LOW SAT MORNING...EITHER
OVER SOUTHEAST KS /ECMWF/ OR NE AR /GFS/. OF COURSE MODEL QPF IS
QUITE VARIED THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD...SO MODEL INITIALIZATION FOR
POPS WAS QUITE GENEROUS. SERIOUSLY DOUBT THERE WILL BE AS MUCH
RAIN AS GRIDS WILL SUGGEST. BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN APPEARS TO BE
FRIDAY...OR POSSIBLY FRI NIGHT IF MODELS SLOW UPPER LOW/TROUGH AS
IS SUSPECTED. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS ALL TAF SITES
TODAY. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH SOME MID-HIGH CLOUDS
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL DECREASE AS THE SUN SETS AND
BECOME MORE WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 304 AM CDT MON APR 20 2015

CONCERNS THIS PERIOD ARE RELATIVELY LIMITED. FUELS HAVE BEEN ON THE
DECREASE GIVEN GREENUP THAT IS UNDERWAY AND RELATIVELY LIGHT WINDS
ARE FORECAST THIS WEEK. SOME AREAS IN CENTRAL KS MAY BRIEFLY REACH
VERY HIGH CATEGORY OF THE GFDI THIS AFTERNOON. -HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  43  72  48 /  10  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      63  41  72  46 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          61  42  71  45 /   0  10  20  10
ELDORADO        62  43  71  47 /   0  10  20  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  45  72  51 /  10  10  20  10
RUSSELL         62  39  72  44 /   0   0  10  10
GREAT BEND      62  39  72  46 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          63  39  72  43 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       62  41  72  44 /   0  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     65  44  70  50 /   0  10  20  20
CHANUTE         63  42  70  48 /   0  10  20  20
IOLA            62  42  70  46 /   0   0  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    64  43  70  50 /   0  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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