Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 250444
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1144 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

MESOSCALE FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
LATEST SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH
ASSOCIATED DRY SLOT OVER THE WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL
CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST AND INTO CENTRAL KANSAS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. STRONG SURFACE HEATING IS UNDERWAY OVER WESTERN KANSAS
AND SPREADING EASTWARD RAPIDLY INTO CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS
HELPING TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. WE ARE EXPECTING THE WARM
FRONT BOUNDARY TO SHARPEN UP ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS NEAR THE I-70
CORRIDOR...WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASING AND INITIATING
THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE 3-4PM TIME FRAME. EVEN THOUGH ADVECTION
OF THE HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE BEING HELD IN CHECK DUE TO
MORNING/AFTERNOON CONVECTION ALONG THE RED RIVER AREA...UPPER 50S
TO LOW 60S DEWPOINTS WILL STILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY AS
VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVERSPREADS THE REGION FROM
APPROACHING UPPER WAVE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO VERY STRONG WIND SHEAR
ALOFT WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY RISK...HOWEVER
IF LOW LEVEL WINDS CAN MAINTAIN A SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH COMPONENT A
TORNADO RISK WILL EXIST ALONG THE WARM FRONT. THE STORMS COULD THEN
FORM INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS THAT WOULD SINK SOUTHEAST TONIGHT.
ADDITIONAL STORMS COULD TRY AND DEVELOP FURTHER SOUTH ALONG THE DRY
LINE ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS EITHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EVENING...WITH A SLIGHTLY HIGHER RISK OF TORNADOES DUE TO BETTER
QUALITY MOISTURE PUSHING NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA AND POSSIBLE
DISCRETE NATURE OF THESE STORMS.

JAKUB

OVERNIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SHOULD EXIT SOUTHEAST
KANSAS BY DAWN SATURDAY. THE DEEPER CYCLONE WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS
NORTHERN MISSOURI INTO CENTRAL ILLINOIS DURING SATURDAY AS A
SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH AND BACKDOORS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
KANSAS. IT APPEARS SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY COMBINED WITH DIURNAL HEATING MAY PROVIDE
IMPETUS FOR ISOLATED LATE DAY CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA.
IF SO...IT COULD LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING BEFORE WANING.
OTHERWISE...COOLER AIR WILL GRADUALLY SETTLE SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE DEVELOPING CLOSED UPPER LOW
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL APPEAR ON THE
TRACK OF THIS FEATURE EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS CONTINUING
ITS MORE NORTHERLY TRACK...WHERE AS THE ECMWF IS FURTHER SOUTH
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN RELATIVELY
HIGHER CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AFTER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA
BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...THE WEATHER PATTERN LOOKS
DRY AND SEASONABLY MILD FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.
UPPER RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS
EXPECTED TO SLIDE GRADUALLY EAST INTO THE PLAINS.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE UPPER LOW LIFTING ACROSS NORTHEAST
KS. STORMS DEVELOPED A FEW HOURS AGO ALONG THE DRYLINE/COLD FRONT
AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY SOUTHEAST. THESE STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH KICT THE MOST LIKELY SITE IMPACTED.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW TO WHETHER THESE STORMS MAKE IT TO KCNU. SCT
SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL KS FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD UPPER LOW. BY AROUND 09-10Z MOST OF
THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE
STRONGER STORMS LOOK TO BE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS WHERE HAIL UP TO
NICKEL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS OVERNIGHT.

LAWSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    55  79  50  65 /  40  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      53  77  47  63 /  60  10  10  10
NEWTON          54  76  47  62 /  60  10  10  10
ELDORADO        56  78  48  65 /  40  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   55  80  50  66 /  30  10  10  10
RUSSELL         51  76  45  60 /  80  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      52  77  46  61 /  70  10  10  20
SALINA          52  75  46  62 /  90  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       52  76  46  62 /  80  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     59  80  50  67 /  40  10  10  10
CHANUTE         59  77  49  65 /  50  10  10  10
IOLA            59  76  48  64 /  50  20  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  50  67 /  50  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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