Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 172051
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
351 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

IN THE UPPER DECKS A LARGE CYCLONE REMAINS PARKED OVER CO WHICH
HAS KEPT ITS SURFACE COHORT PARKED OVER THE TX/OK PANHANDLES. THE
LATTER HAS KEPT ALL OF KICT COUNTRY IN A WEAK E-SE FLOW REGIME
WHICH...IN TURN...HAS KEPT TEMPERATURES IN CHECK WITH MOST AREAS
IN THE LOWER 70S.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

NO DOUBT THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAINS AND HAIL AS LARGE AS
HALF DOLLAR-SIZED CONTINUE TO GARNER THE GREATEST ATTENTION. WITH
A BROAD UPPER-DECK RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY
THE AFORE-MENTIONED UPPER-DECK CYCLONE IS LIKELY TO REMAIN PARKED
OVER CO UNTIL SAT AFTERNOON AT WHICH TIME IT`LL SLOWLY TRANSITION
INTO A DEEP TROF. SUCH AN UPPER-FLOW REGIME WILL KEEP KS BENEATH A
FAIRLY PRONOUNCED DIFFLUENT FLOW THRU SAT AFTERNOON/EVENING. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF BOTH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS REMAINS FROM SOUTHWEST KS TO WEST TX WHERE DEEP
LAYER SHEAR (BOTH SPEED AND DIRECTIONAL) ALONG 6 KM BULK OF
40-50KTS REMAIN STRONGEST. SUCH A DEEP FLOW REGIME IS JUXTAPOSED
WITH RAPID DESTABLIZATION. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN
THESE AREAS MAY ALSO PRODUCE A FEW TORNADOES AS HAS BEEN MENTIONED
THE PAST COUPLE DAYS. WITH THE UPPER-DECK CYCLONE MOVING VERY
LITTLE THRU SAT HAVE ASSIGNED HIGHEST POPS TO CENTRAL & SOUTH
CENTRAL KS FOR THIS EVENING WITH THUNDERSTORMS STEADILY INCREAGING
IN WEST-EAST MANNER AS A SERIES OF MID-UPPER DECK VORT LOBES
ROTATE AROUND THE CYCLONE AND EJECT EAST TOWARD CENTRAL KS LATER
TONIGHT. A SECOND UPPER-DECK CYCLONE DEVELOPS OVER SASKATCHEWAN
AND MANITOBA SAT NIGHT. WITH THE ATTENDANT UPPER-DECK WAVE PHASING
WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER WAVE THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE
SHOULD BEGIN TO GET FORCED EAST...REACHING THE EAST COAST SAT
NIGHT. AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES THE GREATEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER
STORMS WILL LIKEWISE SHIFT EAST TOWARD...THEN ACROSS...THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE DEEP UPPER-DECK WAVE WILL SWEEP A COLD FRONT
SE ACROSS KS ON SUN AND WITH THE BOUNDARY BISECTING SOUTHEAST KS
SUN AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WOULD BE CONFINED TO THIS
SUB-DIVISION SUN AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD POST COLD FRONTAL RAINS
OCCURRING OVER THE REST OF KS...WITH ALL PRECIPITATION EXITING THE
NEIGHBORHOOD SUN NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

TUE-WED:
DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FOR ALL AREAS AS UPPER-DECK SLOWLY
TRANSITIONS INTO A SEMI-ZONEL REGIME.

WED NIGHT-FRI:
THE NEXT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD ARRIVE WED NIGHT AND
CONTINUE THRU THU AS THE NEXT MID-UPPER WAVE APPROACHES THE
SOUTHERN & CENTRAL PLAINS. THIS CHARACTER SHOULD SHEAR
CONSIDERABLY THU AFTERNOON & EVENING AS IT ENCOUNTERS A BROAD
UPPER RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. THERE ARE DIFFERENCES
BETWEEN THE GFS & ITS ECMWF COUNTERPART WITH THE ECMWF SLOWER &
MORE PRONOUNCED WITH THE UPPER-DECK RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON HEATING INCREASES AND AIRMASS DESTABILIZES.
SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST AREAS...AS PINNING DOWN AREAS OF
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST...DUE TO
THE SCATTERED NATURE. EVEN WITH THE SCATTERED STORMS AROUND...CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION AROUND STRONG TSRA WHERE
SOME MVFR VSBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

THINK THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TSRA INCREASES THIS EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION DIMINISHING AFTER 09Z/SAT.

COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION FOR
MOST TAF LOCATIONS BY AROUND 12Z/SAT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 350 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN LOW THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND WITH WET
CONDITIONS BEING THE MAIN FORECAST TREND. THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER INDEX REMAINS BELOW CRITICAL INDICES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    59  74  54  65 /  80  50  50  50
HUTCHINSON      57  74  51  65 /  90  40  50  60
NEWTON          59  73  52  63 /  90  50  50  60
ELDORADO        59  73  55  67 /  80  70  50  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   59  74  55  68 /  80  70  50  50
RUSSELL         54  73  50  61 /  80  40  60  50
GREAT BEND      54  74  49  61 /  70  40  50  50
SALINA          58  74  52  63 /  90  50  60  60
MCPHERSON       57  73  52  63 /  90  40  60  60
COFFEYVILLE     60  73  57  69 /  80  90  50  60
CHANUTE         60  72  56  68 /  80  90  50  60
IOLA            60  71  56  67 /  80  90  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    60  72  56  68 /  80  90  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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