Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 280354
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1054 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.
RAIN SHIELD ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW CONTINUES TO FLIRT WITH THE
KS/OK BORDER...WITH MOST OF THE MEASURABLE PRECIP STAYING IN
OK...AS DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LAYERS KEEPS ANY PRECIP FROM REACHING
INTO KS. LATEST SHORT TERM HIGH-RES MODELS SUGGEST THIS TREND WILL
CONTINUE...WITH MOST OF THE SOLUTIONS BEGINNING TO PULL THIS PRECIP
FURTHER SOUTH AWAY FROM KS OVERNIGHT.  SO WILL CUT OR BASICALLY
REMOVE MOST SLIGHT POPS FROM SRN KS FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  WILL
LINGER A FEW SPRINKLES ALONG THE BOTTOM ROW OF KS COUNTIES UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT DRY THINGS OUT BY TUE MORNING.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

TONIGHT-TUE:
WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER POPS ALONG OK BORDER TONIGHT AS UPPER LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EAST. CHANCES ON TUE LOOK TOO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS
POINT...ALTHOUGH AREA RIGHT ON OK BORDER IN SE KS MIGHT GET
CLIPPED BY A STRAY SHOWER. LOWS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY COOLER IN
NORTH WITH LESS CLOUDS AND DRIER AIR. WITH A BIT MORE INSOLATION
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA ON TUE...EXPECT HIGHS TO WARM SLIGHTLY AS
WELL.

TUE NIGHT-THU:
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA. MODELS ARE
CONSISTENT WITH VORTICITY MAXIMUM MOVING THROUGH TUE NIGHT/EARLY
WED WITH ATTENDENT INCREASE IN MID/HIGH CLOUDS. AT THIS POINT LOW
LEVELS REMAIN QUITE DRY AND WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY AS WELL...ALTHOUGH
SPRINKLES ARE POSSIBLE. -HOWERTON

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH UPPER FLOW TRANSITION
THROUGHOUT THIS PERIOD. RIDGING WILL BE THE RULE ON FRI-SAT. THIS
IS THEN QUICKLY REPLACED BY ZONAL FLOW FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST. WITH THIS COMES TWO ISSUES...POTENTIAL FOR WEAK RIPPLES
IN THE FLOW AND POSSIBILITY OF CONVECTION OVER HIGH PLAINS
ROLLING INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT. AT THIS POINT...BEST CHANCES WILL
BE IN THE NIGHT PERIODS IN CENTRAL KS...WITH CHANCES INCREASING
FOR SUN/MON AS A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
THROUGH. -HOWERTON

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1054 PM CDT MON APR 27 2015

LARGE UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO MAKE SLOW PROGRESS ACROSS SW OK AT THIS
TIME...WITH A LARGE EXPANSE OF SHRA TO THE NORTH OF THIS LOW...WITH
THE NORTHERN EDGE SKIMMING ALONG JUST SOUTH OF KS/OK BORDER.  SHORT
TERM HIGH-RES MODELS KEEP THIS PRECIP SHIELD SOUTH OF THE KS/OK
BORDER AND GRADUALLY DROPPING IT SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM KS BY TUE
MORNING.  EXPECT SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS PRECIP TO
CONTINUE OVER SOUTHERN KS...OTHERWISE THE ONLY TAF CONCERN WILL BE
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  67  44  73 /  20  10   0   0
HUTCHINSON      42  66  43  72 /  10   0   0   0
NEWTON          43  66  44  71 /  10   0   0   0
ELDORADO        45  67  44  71 /  10  10   0  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  67  43  73 /  40  10   0  10
RUSSELL         40  68  45  72 /   0   0  10   0
GREAT BEND      41  67  43  72 /  10   0   0   0
SALINA          42  68  44  72 /   0   0  10   0
MCPHERSON       41  67  44  72 /  10   0   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  65  43  72 /  30  10  10   0
CHANUTE         46  66  44  72 /  10  10   0   0
IOLA            46  66  43  71 /  10  10   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    47  66  43  72 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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