Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 171211
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
711 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A MAIN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A LINE OF STRATIFORM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST...NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WITH A
SECONDARY LINE MOVING EAST...NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS
WILL BE WHAT TO WATCH FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BRINGING SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO SOME PARCHED AREAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS PERIOD REMAINS ACTIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SPINNING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AND SLOWLY EJECTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THIS WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER...AND RAIN PRODUCER FOR THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

TODAY/TONIGHT:
CURRENTLY TRACKING THE TWO LINES OF CONVECTION...THE FIRST A
FIZZLING AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH THE SECOND STILL A
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD. SHORT-TERM HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWED THIS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND EVENTUALLY BY MID DAY UP OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS.
THIS WILL BRING A NICE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN DEVELOP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT REALLY EXPECT
THAT THREAT TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS AN MCS EXITING TO THE EAST BY MORNING.

SATURDAY:
THINK SATURDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER...AND ENDING IN A WET DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY OVER COLORADO...WESTERN
KANSAS. THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD. THINK
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE DRY IN THE MORNING AS THE
EARLIER POSSIBLE MCS WILL BE OVER EAST. DEPENDING ON THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM...CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF AN
EARLIER START...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST WITH A MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON START. AGAIN PARAMETERS ARE IN LINE FOR SEVERE
STORMS...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. TORNADOES AGAIN AREA A
CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL EHI/HELICITY/CAPE VALUES IN LINE. WILL
WANT TO WATCH AS THE PERIOD NEARS. BETTER VALUES DO STAY SOUTH IN
OKLAHOMA...BUT THEY EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS.

SUNDAY:
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD...LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL FORCE PRECIP. AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INSTABILITY
WILL WANE AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL TURN TO RAIN SHOWERS.

OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING AN AVERAGE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
TO THE AREA WITH AREAS SEEING MORE OR LESS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE STORMS. HOPEFULLY HELPING THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS
OF KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME EXITING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND KANSAS WILL SIT IN THE WAKE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. THERE REMAIN SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 709 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

CHALLENGING AVIATION FORECAST. SHORT TERM MODELS WERE STRUGGLING
WITH CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM OVER THE AREA. EXPECT
THIS SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHEAST THIS MORNING AS IT
WEAKENS. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE RAIN SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL
THUNDERSTORM FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH VISIBILITY BRIEFLY DROPPING TO
MVFR IN THE STRONGER STORMS.  MOST MODELS SHOWING VIRTUALLY NO
CIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA AND RESPECTABLE INSTABILITY.
THINKING BY LATE AFTERNOON...COULD SEE FAIRLY DECENT THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE OVER MOST OF THE AREA...WHICH WOULD PERSIST INTO THE EVENING.
CONFIDENCE IS NOT OVERLY HIGH WITH PROBABILITY OF OCCURRANCE OR
TIMING...SO WILL KEE FAIRLY LENGTHY VCTS FOR NOW -HOWERTON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
FORECAST WITH WET CONDITIONS BEING THE MAIN FORECAST TREND.
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX REMAINS BELOW CRITICAL INDICES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  58  75  53 /  60  70  50  50
HUTCHINSON      73  56  74  51 /  60  80  50  50
NEWTON          73  58  74  52 /  60  70  40  50
ELDORADO        75  59  74  54 /  60  70  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  59  75  54 /  60  70  50  50
RUSSELL         70  53  73  49 /  70  80  50  50
GREAT BEND      70  53  75  49 /  70  80  50  50
SALINA          74  57  75  52 /  60  70  50  50
MCPHERSON       74  57  74  51 /  60  80  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     78  60  73  56 /  40  70  70  50
CHANUTE         77  60  72  55 /  50  70  70  50
IOLA            76  60  71  55 /  40  70  70  50
PARSONS-KPPF    77  60  73  56 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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