Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 261729
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1229 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW STRATUS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA INTO
THE MORNING HOURS TODAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF A
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE MAINLY WEST
OF HIGHWAY 14 INTO THE HIGH PLAINS...WHERE UPSLOPE MOISTENING
SHOULD MAXIMIZE.

STRONG UPPER TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO DIG INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
STATES TODAY...FORMING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST
TEXAS BY LATE TODAY/TONIGHT. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO SLIDE
SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY...AS SHORTWAVE TROUGHING DIGS SOUTHEASTWARD OUT OF CANADA
INTO THE GREAT LAKES. IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS UPPER LOW...THE
HIGHEST MEAN RH AND 850-650 MB FRONTOGENESIS AXIS WILL STRETCH
FROM THE TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES INTO NORTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA.
HEAVIEST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR WITHIN THIS ZONE. RAIN CHANCES IN OUR
AREA WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGHER 40-75% IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
CLOSER TO THE OKLAHOMA BORDER WHERE RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE
BENEFICIAL (.30 TO 1.25 IN.)...BUT NOT HEAVY OR EXCESSIVE. THE
ASCENT IS LESS DEEPER/STRONGER AND THE LOW LEVELS DRIER FURTHER
NORTHEAST INTO CENTRAL/EAST-CENTRAL KS WHERE RAIN CHANCES WILL BE
MUCH LESS WITH THIS SYSTEM (NIL-SLIGHT). MODEST ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS PROGGED ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THIS SYSTEM OVER
THOSE COUNTIES NEAR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER...WHERE EMBEDDED THUNDER
IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH AND
END LATER MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW SHIFTS
EASTWARD.

THE EFFECTS FROM THIS UPPER LOW WILL KEEP HIGH TEMPERATURES
COOLER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES FOR LATE APRIL...FOR TODAY
THROUGH TUESDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 AM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

THE 00Z NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN AND 00Z ECMWF ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT
WITH THE UPPER PATTERN ACROSS THE CONUS DURING THIS EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD. THIS LEADS TO ABOVE AVERAGE FORECAST CONFIDENCE.
UPPER RIDGING WILL SPREAD EAST FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
TROUGHING PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON SATURDAY. THIS
WILL SUPPORT A GOOD DEAL OF SUNSHINE MID-LATE WEEK...WITH
TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES BY LATE WEEK AS
THE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH SMALL CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLY
ARRIVING SOMETIME OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE MODELS HINTING AT A
WEAK FRONT SETTLING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND GULF
MOISTURE RETURNING.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1224 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE SOME BREAKS FINALLY OCCUR EARLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
FROM EAST TO WEST ACROSS THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS LINGERING THE
LONGEST OVER CENTRAL KANSAS. MEANWHILE...A UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO WESTERN TEXAS WITH RAIN SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS AROUND DAYBREAK AND INTO
THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY.

JAKUB

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    66  48  59  45 /  10  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      63  45  59  43 /  10  30  30  30
NEWTON          63  45  60  43 /  10  30  30  30
ELDORADO        65  47  61  44 /  10  30  40  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   68  49  59  45 /  10  60  60  50
RUSSELL         57  43  59  40 /  10  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      58  44  58  40 /  10  30  30  20
SALINA          63  43  62  42 /  10  10  20  10
MCPHERSON       63  44  61  42 /  10  20  20  20
COFFEYVILLE     68  49  63  46 /  10  40  40  50
CHANUTE         66  47  62  45 /  10  20  20  30
IOLA            64  46  62  44 /  10  10  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    67  48  63  46 /  10  30  30  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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