Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KICT 161533
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1033 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A VIGOROUS TROUGH CONTINUES TO TRANSLATE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE
CENTRAL GREAT BASIN AREA TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION. AS THIS
SYSTEM SLOWLY APPROACHES...ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL SURGE NORTH ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES BRINGING INCREASING CHANCES
FOR PERIODIC STORMS THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY BEFORE THE STORM SYSTEM
BEGINS TO EXIT TOWARD THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA.

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1033 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

VISIBILITIES ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS ARE QUICKLY IMPROVING AND AS SUCH
THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED ON SCHEDULE. WITH A CUT-OFF MID
TO UPPER DECK CYCLONE CAMPING OUT OVER THE UT/AZ BORDER...HAVE
ADJUSTED POPS...WEATHER & ASSOCIATED RAINFALL FOR THE REST OF THE
MORNING TO REFLECT LATEST DOPPLER TRENDS (I.E. PRIMARILY CENTRAL
KS) AND TO LOWER POPS...ESPECIALLY ALONG & EAST OF I-135 THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THE ASSOCIATED WEATHER AND QPF.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING WITHIN AN AREA OF ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE.
PARCELS ARE PROGGED TO REMAIN WEAKLY CAPPED NEAR H85 AND MAINTAINED
LOW POPS FOR ANY ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS.

MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES REMAINING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA OR ALONG AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 14. THE BIGGEST CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS TO TREND POPS LOWER ACROSS MUCH OF
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS AS RECENT MODEL TRENDS ARE
SLOWING THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE MID/UPPER TROUGH. MAINTAINED
LOW POPS EAST OF THE DRYLINE WITH MINIMAL CINH AND ABUNDANT
INSTABILITY.

THE BETTER CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP MOIST CONVECTION
IMPACTING THE FORECAST AREA WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
ANOTHER ROUND LIKELY ON SATURDAY AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES
EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. CAPE/SHEAR PROFILES
SUPPORT THE POSSIBILITY FOR SEVERE STORMS ON BOTH DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

ANY LINGERING LIGHT PRECIPITATION ON SUNDAY SHOULD COME TO A RAPID
DEMISE AS THE MID/UPPER TROUGH TRANSLATES EAST OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS
IN THE 60S. MAINTAINED LOW POPS AS WE MOVE TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE WEEK WITH NORTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW PREVAILING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 639 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

IFR/LIFR FOG VSBYS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEAST KANSAS UNTIL MID-
MORNING...WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE FURTHER WEST
ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. REMNANT SHOWERS FROM SOUTHWEST KANSAS MAY
AFFECT WESTERN PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS THIS MORNING...THOUGH
BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION SHOULD RESIDE JUST WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA UNTIL LATER TONIGHT.

KED


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 305 AM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...AND
THE OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    75  57  72  55 /  30  50  70  60
HUTCHINSON      74  55  72  54 /  40  60  70  60
NEWTON          75  56  71  55 /  30  50  70  60
ELDORADO        75  57  73  56 /  20  40  70  60
WINFIELD-KWLD   75  57  74  57 /  20  50  70  60
RUSSELL         70  52  70  50 /  80  80  70  60
GREAT BEND      72  53  70  49 /  70  80  70  60
SALINA          74  55  72  55 /  40  60  70  60
MCPHERSON       73  55  72  55 /  40  50  70  60
COFFEYVILLE     77  58  75  58 /  10  30  60  60
CHANUTE         76  57  75  59 /  10  20  50  60
IOLA            75  57  76  59 /  10  20  50  60
PARSONS-KPPF    76  57  75  58 /  10  30  50  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.