Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 302348
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
648 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

FORECAST CONCERNS: THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAINLY WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY...AND GUSTY WINDS/ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WEDNESDAY.

BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW IS PROGGED TO BECOME LARGELY DECOUPLED
TONIGHT BENEATH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHY
RADIATION FOG IN THE SOUTH IF DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS CAN LOWER
ENOUGH. ON TUESDAY...LOW-LEVEL WINDS BECOME EASTERLY TO THE NORTH
OF A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT OVER OKLAHOMA. LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES
SUGGEST HIGHS TUESDAY WILL BE A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN
TODAY WITH GOOD INSOLATION...DESPITE THE EASTERLY COMPONENT.

AN UPPER LOW WEST OF THE BAJA COAST...WILL TRANSLATE EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE A
STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
AND NORTHERN PLAINS. PRESSURE FALLS TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES WILL
ALLOW THE WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE 1000-2000 J/KG OF
MUCAPE...HOWEVER THE STRONGEST MOISTURE TRANSPORT IS PROGGED
NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE...IT`S UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT TO INDUCE CONVECTION AND WILL LEAVE
TUESDAY NIGHT DRY. THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION FROM THE WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF OUR
AREA...ALTHOUGH SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD CREEP JUST NORTH OF THE
OKLAHOMA BORDER DURING WEDNESDAY. OTHERWISE...EXPECTING THE WARM
SECTOR TO REMAIN CAPPED IN OUR AREA DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. AN
ISOLATED STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT WED PM/EVE NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER
THE HIGH PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE MORE PRIME AREA FOR STORM GENERATION
WILL BE ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND COLD FRONT/DRYLINE INTERSECTION WED
PM/EVE...FROM WESTERN IOWA INTO EASTERN NEBRASKA AND FAR NORTHWEST
KANSAS...THROUGH A COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPPER
SUPPORT. A VEERING 50 KT LOW-LEVEL JET AND WARM MID-LEVEL POCKET
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...SHOULD ALLOW AN MCS TO DEVELOP AND
PROPAGATE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD WITH HIGHEST THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ACROSS NORTHERN/NORTHEASTERN KANSAS WED NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS/HAIL
COULD ACCOMPANY THE MCS.

THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO HANG UP OVER FAR SOUTHEAST KS
THURSDAY...BEFORE PUSHING SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTS EASTWARD OUT OF THE ROCKIES. WILL CARRY 30-
50% CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST WHERE DEEPER LOW-LEVEL
MOISTURE AND STRONGER INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE...AND 15-30% CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. COOLER AIR WILL BEGIN SPREADING SOUTHWARD
THURSDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE FRONT.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

A COOLER AND DRIER PACIFIC AIRMASS WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD INTO THE
AREA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING STRONG SHORTWAVE
TROUGH. LATEST TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE FAVOR A SLOWER
EVOLUTION WITH REGARD TO AN UPPER LOW PUSHING INTO THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST SUNDAY/MONDAY. LEE TROUGHING AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES MODIFYING ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANY PRECIPITATION CHANCES WOULD BE SUPPRESSED OVER
EASTERN KANSAS BASED ON A SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH INDICATES AN
EML PLUME ACROSS KANSAS BY MONDAY.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE SOME LIGHT FOG OVER MAINLY SOUTHEAST KS
EARLY TUE MORNING.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SOME SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHEAST
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA AND WILL TRACK OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
TONIGHT. THIS FEATURE WILL PUSH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA...FLIPPING LIGHT WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH. SOME
SHALLOW FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER MAINLY SE KS EARLY TUE MORNING
AND FOR NOW WILL KEEP WITH THE SPIRIT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AND DROP TO 3SM FOR A FEW HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT BY LATE
TUE MORNING VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE AREA WIDE WITH EAST
WINDS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 252 PM CDT MON MAR 30 2015

LIGHTER EASTERLY WINDS ON TUESDAY SHOULD RESULT IN LESSER GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER COMPARED TO THIS AFTERNOON...HOWEVER GFDI VALUES WILL
STILL BE HIGH WITH FUELS STILL 90-100% CURED. STRENGTHENING LEE
TROUGH ON WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30
MPH. ALTHOUGH MINIMUM AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OF 30-45% ARE
PROJECTED WITH INCREASED DEWPOINTS...THE STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND
CURED FUELS WILL LEAD TO VERY HIGH TO POTENTIALLY EXTREME GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER FROM MIDDAY INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. FIRE DANGER
SHOULD LESSEN THURSDAY...BUT WILL REMAIN HIGH.

JMC

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  81  56  83 /   0  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      43  81  54  84 /   0  10  10  10
NEWTON          45  80  55  83 /   0  10  10  10
ELDORADO        45  80  55  82 /   0  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   48  81  56  83 /   0  10  10  10
RUSSELL         40  82  53  85 /   0   0  10  20
GREAT BEND      41  82  54  85 /   0   0  10  20
SALINA          43  80  54  84 /   0   0  10  10
MCPHERSON       43  80  54  84 /   0   0  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     48  78  55  80 /   0  10  10  20
CHANUTE         46  78  55  80 /   0  10  10  20
IOLA            45  77  54  80 /   0  10  10  20
PARSONS-KPPF    46  78  55  80 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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