Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 222350
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
650 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
RED RIVER AREA...HOWEVER A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD TRY AND
MIGRATE NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE KS/OK BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COASTLINE OF BAJA AND CALIFORNIA.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH EXPANSION LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH CAPPING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS LOOKS
TO PROHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. OTHERWISE
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW LAYERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE
THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT BETTER CHANCES MIGHT AFFECT OUR NORTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE FOCUS ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS MORE FAVORABLE.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST WAVE AND BE A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHTS
WAVE. MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT INTO KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE KEY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE NORTHWARD
MIGRATION AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
DRYLINE...AS RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND BETWEEN THE TWO MENTIONED
BOUNDARIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND
MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR KANSAS WITH A MORE
NORTHERN PLACEMENT PROVIDING MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE AREA...MAINLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

ALL TERMINALS TO MAINTAIN VFR STATUS TIL ~15Z WHEN CIGS MAY LWR TO
~3,000FT OVER MOST AREAS. IN THE MEANTIME CIGS ~5,000FT SHOULD
SPREAD ACRS MOST AREAS AS LWR-DECK FLOW SLOWLY BECOMES MORE E/SELY
9-13KT/10-15MPH THEREBY ENABLING THE LOWER LEVELS (AOB 5,000FT) TO
MOISTEN. DETAILS REGARDING THU MORNING WILL BE PROVIDED WHEN MODEL
TRENDS COME INTO BETTER FOCUS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  63  54  77 /  10  10  30  40
HUTCHINSON      44  63  52  76 /  10  10  30  40
NEWTON          43  63  52  74 /  10  10  30  50
ELDORADO        44  63  53  73 /  10  10  30  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   46  63  54  76 /  20  10  30  40
RUSSELL         41  62  50  71 /  10  10  40  50
GREAT BEND      42  62  51  74 /  10  10  30  40
SALINA          41  62  50  69 /  10  10  40  60
MCPHERSON       42  63  51  73 /  10  10  40  50
COFFEYVILLE     45  61  52  72 /  20  10  40  50
CHANUTE         43  62  51  71 /  10  10  40  60
IOLA            42  62  51  70 /  10  10  40  60
PARSONS-KPPF    44  61  52  72 /  20  10  50  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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