Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 262349
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
649 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY ADVECTION ON EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SOME EROSION INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE VANGUARD CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST WILL BE MADE
WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OVER
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BETTER LIFT THOUGH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. THAT
SAID...SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY...AND WILL
KEEP MENTION FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400. A LARGE
POP GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A GENERAL DRYING TREND WILL GET
UNDERWAY DURING TUESDAY AS THE LOW MIGRATES EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A DRY AND TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
COMMENCE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF MIGRATORY
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND
THE AFFECTS OF DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THE
GFS DEVELOPS MORE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THOUGH ECMWF MAINTAINS SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE. ABSENCE OF A FOCUS/FORCING MECHANISM BEIT
A SURFACE FRONT OR UPPER TROF WILL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED OR VERY LOW PROBABILITY PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 649 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CLOUD DECK THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY IS
SLOWLY ERODING FROM THE NORTHEAST...AS SOME LOW LEVEL DRY AIR TRYS
TO WORK IN. SO WILL SEE THE MVFR CIGS SLOWLY ERODE THIS
EVENING...FIRST AT KCNU AND KICT/KSLN...WITH KRSL AND KHUT CLEARING
LAST.  BUT JUST AS THE LOW CLOUDS CLEAR...INCREASING MID LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IN NM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
OVERNIGHT.

AS THIS UPPER LOW MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
WILL SEE SOME WRAPAROUND SHRA ON THE NORTHEAST-NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW
MOVE INTO SRN KS FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON MON. WILL GO WITH SOME
VCSH FOR THIS CHANCE FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAFS AFTER 10-12Z/MON. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS RAIN SHIELD WILL REACH...GIVEN THE
DRIER AIR AT LOW LAYERS LEADING TO A SHARP NORTHERN EDGE TO THE
PRECIP....WITH SRN KS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION FOR SOME SHRA.

MOST OF THE MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRA CHANCE WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE KICT/KHUT AREAS...WITH MID LEVEL VFR CLOUD LEVELS AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  60  44  66 /  50  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      45  60  42  67 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          45  60  42  66 /  30  30  20  10
ELDORADO        47  60  43  66 /  30  40  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  58  44  65 /  60  70  50  20
RUSSELL         42  60  39  69 /  20  20  10   0
GREAT BEND      43  59  39  68 /  30  30  10   0
SALINA          42  63  41  69 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       44  61  41  67 /  20  30  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     49  62  45  64 /  40  50  50  20
CHANUTE         46  62  44  65 /  20  30  30  10
IOLA            45  62  43  65 /  20  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    48  62  45  65 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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