Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 270440
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1140 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 909 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

CURRENT UPPER LOW OVER NM IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS INTO THE SRN
PLAINS AT THIS TIME.  SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS ON THE NORTHEAST
PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM HAVE BEEN SLOW TO MOVE NORTH TOWARDS KS.
THIS RAIN AREA ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW IS STILL
FORECAST TO MOVE FURTHER NORTH-NORTHEAST AS THE OVERNIGHT
PROGRESSES...BUT HOW FAR NORTH AND HOW FAST IS THE REAL QUESTION.
LATEST SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SHOW A SLOWER TREND TO THE NORTHEAST
THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SO THINK ANY PRECIP MOVING INTO SRN KS WILL
BE DELAYED UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. EVEN AS THE RAIN MOVES
NORTHEAST...THIS NORTHERN EDGE WILL BE FIGHTING SOME DRIER AIR
MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM NE KS...WHICH COULD LEAD TO INITIAL RAIN
CHANCES BEING NOTHING MORE THAN SPRINKLES.  SO WILL PUSH TIMING OF
THE START OF THE PRECIP BACK...WITH A MENTION OF SPRINKLES FOR THE
ONSET.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

LOW CLOUDS HAVE BEEN STUBBORN TO SCOUR OUT ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT DRY ADVECTION ON EASTERLY FLOW WILL ALLOW
SOME EROSION INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE VANGUARD CLOUDS FROM THE
APPROACHING UPPER LOW BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT.
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST WILL BE MADE
WITH REGARD TO PRECIP CHANCES/TRENDS AND QPF AMOUNTS LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THE UPPER LOW WAS SPINNING OVER
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO AND WILL TRACK SLOWLY EAST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK. SOUTHERN KANSAS WILL
REMAIN IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE BETTER LIFT THOUGH MORE
WIDESPREAD PRECIP SHOULD REMAIN JUST SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. THAT
SAID...SOME WEAK ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN KANSAS LATER TONIGHT INTO PART OF MONDAY...AND WILL
KEEP MENTION FOR THUNDER MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 400. A LARGE
POP GRADIENT WILL BE MAINTAINED FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. A GENERAL DRYING TREND WILL GET
UNDERWAY DURING TUESDAY AS THE LOW MIGRATES EAST AWAY FROM
THE REGION...WITH NEAR SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 326 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A DRY AND TRANQUIL STRETCH OF WEATHER IS STILL ON TAP FOR
THE END OF THE WEEK AS AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS FROM THE SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS MIGRATES EAST ACROSS THE
MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO A BIT
ABOVE SEASONAL CLIMO. A SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL
COMMENCE LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND WHICH WILL
RESULT IN AT LEAST MODEST MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE AREA.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE TRACK OF MIGRATORY
SHORTWAVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL CONUS AND
THE AFFECTS OF DAMPENING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA. THE
GFS DEVELOPS MORE TROUGHING ACROSS THE WEST INTO THE PLAINS
BY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...THOUGH ECMWF MAINTAINS SOME
RIDGING IN PLACE. ABSENCE OF A FOCUS/FORCING MECHANISM BEIT
A SURFACE FRONT OR UPPER TROF WILL PRECLUDE MUCH MORE THAN
ISOLATED OR VERY LOW PROBABILITY PRECIP CHANCES FOR NOW.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1138 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

MVFR CLOUD DECK THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR MOST OF THE DAY HAS
ALL BUT ERODED...WITH KRSL THE ONLY EXCEPTION...AS SOME LOW LEVEL
DRY AIR WORKS IN. INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW IN NM WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT.

AS THIS UPPER LOW MAKES SLOW PROGRESS EAST INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
WILL SEE SOME WRAPAROUND SHRA AND EVEN A FEW TSRA ON THE NORTHEAST-
NORTH SIDE OF THE LOW MOVE INTO SRN KS LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY ON
MON. WILL GO WITH SOME VCTS FOR THIS CHANCE FOR THE KICT/KHUT TAFS
AFTER 10-12Z/MON...AS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FOR
STORMS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON HOW FAR NORTH THIS RAIN SHIELD WILL
REACH...GIVEN THE DRIER AIR AT LOW LAYERS LEADING TO A SHARP
NORTHERN EDGE TO THE PRECIP...WITH SRN KS THE MOST LIKELY LOCATION
FOR THE SHRA/TSRA.

MOST OF THE MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SHRA CHANCE WILL STAY
SOUTH OF THE KICT/KHUT AREAS...WITH MID LEVEL VFR CLOUD LEVELS AT
ALL TAF LOCATIONS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    48  60  44  66 /  50  50  30  10
HUTCHINSON      45  60  42  67 /  30  40  20  10
NEWTON          45  60  42  66 /  30  30  20  10
ELDORADO        47  60  43  66 /  30  40  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  58  44  65 /  60  70  50  20
RUSSELL         42  60  39  69 /  20  20  10   0
GREAT BEND      43  59  39  68 /  30  30  10   0
SALINA          42  63  41  69 /  20  20  10   0
MCPHERSON       44  61  41  67 /  20  30  20   0
COFFEYVILLE     49  62  45  64 /  40  50  50  20
CHANUTE         46  62  44  65 /  20  30  30  10
IOLA            45  62  43  65 /  20  20  20  10
PARSONS-KPPF    48  62  45  65 /  30  40  40  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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