Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 010451
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1151 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE MAIN CHALLENGE IS CONVECTIVE CHANCES/TRENDS WEDNESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY. A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN BOUNDARY
LAYER MOISTURE WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN EASTWARD MIGRATING SHORTWAVE ALOFT WHICH
WILL MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL CONUS. THIS
MOISTURE FLUX IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG
BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THERE IS
ALSO A REMOTE CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION WITH WEAK OR
LITTLE CAPPING. HOWEVER THE LOW LEVEL JET IS NOT PARTICULARLY
STRONG AND FORCING RELATIVELY WEAK...SO WILL KEEP THE FORECAST
DRY FOR NOW. THE SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO FAR
NORTHERN KANSAS BY WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH AN ATTENDANT DRY-LINE
EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS. THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR SURFACE BASED CONVECTION...THOUGH STORM CHANCES APPEAR
SOMEWHAT MORE CONDITIONAL PRIOR TO SUNSET ALONG THE DRY-LINE DUE
TO SOME CAPPING AND RELATIVELY WEAK CONVERGENCE. CHANCES APPEAR
BETTER WITH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT BY
LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KANSAS. THE WAS HANDLED FAIRLY WELL IN THE
GOING FORECAST...SO ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS WERE NEEDED WITH THIS
FORECAST UPDATE. OTHERWISE...IT WILL BE A WINDY AND UNSEASONABLY
WARM DAY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH MAXS WELL INTO THE 80S.

A TRAILING UPPER TROF IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL TAKE A MORE
SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS LATE THURSDAY INTO
EARLY FRIDAY...WHICH WILL RESULT IN RENEWED CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...BEFORE CLEARING SOUTHEAST KANSAS BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL BECOME PROGRESSIVELY COOLER
INTO THURSDAY AND ESPECIALLY FRIDAY...WHICH AGAIN IS IN THE
SPIRIT OF THE GOING FORECAST.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTER PERIODS OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
MADE WITH THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MIGRATORY SHORTWAVE RIDGING
ALOFT LOOKS TO AFFECT THE AREA OVER MUCH OF THE WEEKEND WITH
DRY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGE.
SOME INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER TROUGHING DEVELOPS
ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS...WHICH COULD MIGRATE EAST AND AFFECT
THE PLAINS LATE IN THE FORECAST PERIODS WITH PRECIP CHANCES.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1146 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS REMAIN LOW CLOUDS WED MORNING.

STILL THINKING THAT LOW CLOUDS WILL WORK NORTH LATE TONIGHT INTO
WED MORNING WITH ALL MODELS REMAINING CONSISTENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO. ONE CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS TAFS WAS TO DELAY THE ONSET
BY ABOUT AN HOUR AND TO REMOVE THE LOW CLOUDS FROM KRSL AND KSLN.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS KICT AND KCNU WOULD HAVE THE BEST CHANCES
AT SEEING LOW CLOUDS WITH KICT HAVING THE BEST CHANCE AT IFR
CONDITIONS. SHOULD ALSO SEE SOME FOG WITH THE LOWER CEILINGS AND
FOR NOW RAN WITH 3SM AT KICT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN NEBRASKA WED EVENING AND FILL DOWN TO THE
SOUTHWEST...REACHING CENTRAL KS AFTER 00Z. KRSL AND KSLN HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE TO SEE THESE STORMS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

STRONG AND GUSTY SOUTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY UNSEASONABLY
WARM TEMPERATURES. DESPITE SLIGHTLY HIGHER DAYTIME HUMIDITY
VALUES...THE WARM WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RESULT IN SEVERAL HOURS
FOR EXTREME GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS WITH VERY
HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
KANSAS.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    57  85  55  71 /  10  10  30  20
HUTCHINSON      55  86  51  69 /  10  10  40  20
NEWTON          55  84  52  68 /  10  10  50  20
ELDORADO        56  83  55  70 /  10  10  50  30
WINFIELD-KWLD   57  83  57  73 /  10  10  30  20
RUSSELL         54  87  46  66 /   0  30  50  10
GREAT BEND      54  87  47  67 /  10  30  50  10
SALINA          54  87  49  68 /  10  10  60  10
MCPHERSON       55  86  50  68 /  10  10  50  20
COFFEYVILLE     56  81  61  74 /  10  20  30  50
CHANUTE         54  80  58  72 /  10  20  50  50
IOLA            54  81  57  71 /  10  20  60  50
PARSONS-KPPF    56  81  60  73 /  10  20  30  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>051-067.

&&

$$



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