Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 050453
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1153 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 839 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

CURRENT THINKING BASED ON QUICK LOOK AT 00Z DATA AND RECENT HI RES
MODELS SUG STORMS MAY HANG ON A BIT LONGER...BUT SHOULD DIMINISH
SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. APPEARS THAT 30-35KT 850MB JET IS
IMPINGING ON THE 850MB BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL EXPIRE
ON SCHEDULE AS STORMS HAVE CONTINUED TO SHOW A SLOW WEAKENING
TREND.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS CENTRAL KS WHERE THE
HIGHEST POPS WILL BE MAINTAINED. OTHER MORE ISOLATED DIURNALLY
DRIVEN ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHERN KANSAS. SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCE IS
SUGGESTING THAT OUTFLOW WILL FORCE THE BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND
TRENDED POPS UP SLIGHTLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST KS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS SCENARIO. BY 07-09Z THE WARM
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH BRINGING AN END TO ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION.

MUCH OF TUESDAY MAY BE DRY BUT MAINTAINED MID POPS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AS ANY ACTIVITY DEVELOPING
ACROSS SW KS MAY DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATER IN THE DAY
AND THE AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN WEAKLY CAPPED. BETTER CHANCES
FOR MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL ARRIVE LATE TUE NIGHT INTO
EARLY WED AS A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMERGES OVER THE CENTRAL
HIGH PLAINS. THIS WAS HANDLED WELL IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND
THE PRIMARY CHANGE WAS TO SLOW POPS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES
ARRIVING AFTER 06Z ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WED-THU...THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS PROGGED TO INCREASE ON WED AS THE
FOCUS FOR DEEP MOIST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG HWY 281
ALONG A DRYLINE. MAINTAINED MID POPS WED NIGHT INTO THU AS THE
AIRMASS IS PROGGED TO REMAIN UNSTABLE WITH A CONTINUATION OF
SOUTHWEST MID/UPPER FLOW. TIMING ANY SHORTWAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT
OF THE SOUTHWEST BECOMES CHALLENGING AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

A MID/UPPER TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHWEST AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE PERIOD IS PROGGED TO MOVE EAST/NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN
AND CENTRAL ROCKIES OVER THE WEEKEND. RICH MOISTURE IS PROGGED TO
REMAIN ENTRENCHED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES
WHERE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF DEEP MOIST CONVECTION ARE EXPECTED LATE
IN THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MAINTAINED MID POPS THROUGH MUCH
OF THE PERIOD WITH SEASONABLY MILD TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1150 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

STORMS HAVE BEEN A BIT SLOWER TO EXIT CENTRAL KS THAN ANTICIPATED...
BUT SHORT TERM MODELS ARE STILL ADAMANT THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
PUSH NORTH EARLY IN THE FORECAST. LATEST RAP IS A BIT DIFFERENT
KEEPING OUTFLOW/SURFACE BOUNDARY QUASISTATIONARY BUT STILL MOVING
PRECIPITATION TO THE NORTH. THIS SEEMS PLAUSIBLE BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS. FOCUS THEN TURNS TO TIMING OF CONVECTION TOMORROW.
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MIGHT FOCUS INITIAL UPDRAFTS...BUT INABILITY TO
ACCURATELY FORECAST ITS LOCATION PRECLUDES AN EARLY MENTION IN
TAFS. WILL STICK WITH HIGHER PROBABILITY OF JUST PRIOR TO 0000
UTC AT KRSL/KHUT AND AFTER 0000 UTC AT KSLN/KHUT. HAVE KEPT KCNU
DRY FOR NOW...BUT ROGUE CELL COULD AFFECT KCNU DURING PK HEATING.
-HOWERTON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    62  77  63  77 /  20  20  90  60
HUTCHINSON      62  76  61  77 /  40  20  90  50
NEWTON          61  74  59  73 /  20  10  90  60
ELDORADO        61  79  63  76 /  10  10  90  70
WINFIELD-KWLD   61  77  62  76 /  10  20  90  60
RUSSELL         59  75  59  78 /  70  50  80  50
GREAT BEND      59  73  59  78 /  90  60  80  40
SALINA          61  78  61  77 /  90  20  90  50
MCPHERSON       61  75  60  74 /  50  20  90  50
COFFEYVILLE     59  78  63  74 /  10  20  80  80
CHANUTE         60  79  63  75 /  10  10  70  80
IOLA            60  78  63  73 /  10  10  70  80
PARSONS-KPPF    59  79  63  75 /  10  20  70  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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