Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 192035
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SCATT6ERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL & SOUTH
CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHEAST-MOVING
COLD FRONT THAT WAS ENTERING EXTREME EASTERN OK & NORTHWEST AR AT
3 PM. THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED PRIMARILY BY SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THE NW WINDS THAT HAVE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ARE STRONG WITH SUSTAINED 30-35 MPH & GUSTS FROM 40-45
MPH OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS EVENING:
THE PRIMARY FORECAST IS ON SOUTHEAST KS WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSEST TO
WHERE THE SPC HAS PAINTED AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. (FROM EASTERN OK TO ACROSS ALL OF AR. A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION STILL CLIPS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL & MORE SO
SOUTHEAST KS AS WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY.) MLCAPES AREN`T NEARLY AS
HIGH AS WAS DEPICTED FOR SOUTHEAST KS ON YESTERDAY`S MODELS. THE
NAM & GFS HAD BOTH DEPICTED 2000-2500 J/KG FOR SOUTHEAST KS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAD MADE SENSE AS THERE WERE INDCATIONS THAT THE
SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WOULD DECELLERATE AS IT APPROACHED
SOUTHEAST KS IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING MID-UPPER WAVE THAT WAS THE
REMNANT OF A POWERFUL MID-UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAD MOVED EAST FROM
COLORADO. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH NICKEL-SIZED
HAIL & 40-50 MPH WINDS STILL EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALL RAINFALL SHOULD END BY 8-9PM AS MUCH COOLER AIR
SPREADS THESE AREAS.

TONIGHT:
THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT FROST MAY DEVELLOP IN RUSSELL & BARTON
COUNTIES EARLY MON MORNING BUT CHECKED THE SWING ON ISSUING A
FROST ADVISORY AS NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

TUE-WED:
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN & PERHAPS A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXISTS FROM LATE TUE NIGHT (FOR MOST AREAS) TO PRIMARILY
SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS ON WED AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES KS. THE WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SE ON WED...WITH THE BOUNDARY TAKING ON A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION
AS THE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION SCOOTS E ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY.
THE PATTERN IS FEEBLE SO ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BEHAVE ITSELF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE GREATLY FRI AFTERNOON AS A
POTENT MID-UPPER DECK WAVE CROSSES AZ/NM FRI EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
CHARACTER SHEARS SLIGHTLY AS MOVES EAST ACROSS KS & OK A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

UPPER LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS PLAGUED THE AREA FOR THE LAST FEW
DAYS IS MAKING SLOW PROGRESS ALONG THE KS/OK BORDER AT THIS TIME.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME MVFR CIGS ARE LOCATED TO THE NW OF THIS
LOW...FROM JUST NW OF KHUT TO KSLN.  EXPECT THIS BAND OF SHOWERS AND
MVFR CIGS TO CONTINUE TO PROGRESS SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON...
AFFECTING INITIALLY THE KRSL/KSLN TAFS...BUT THINK KHUT AND KICT
WILL DROP TO MVFR CIGS IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

FURTHER TO THE EAST OF THE LOW...COULD SEE SOME TSRA REDEVELOPMENT
OVER SE KS...WHICH MAY IMPACT THE KCNU TAF. SO WILL KEEP A VCTS
MENTION IN THIS LOCATION FOR A FEW HOURS.  THINK THIS TSRA CHANCE
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND STORMS SHIFTS EAST OF
THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING.

KETCHAM


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE MON AFTERNOON
AS WINDS BACK TO A W/NW COMPONENT FROM 10-15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  65  42  68 /  10   0   0  20
HUTCHINSON      36  64  40  68 /  10   0   0  20
NEWTON          36  63  40  66 /  10   0   0  20
ELDORADO        38  65  41  67 /  10   0   0  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  66  43  68 /  10   0   0  20
RUSSELL         33  63  38  69 /  10   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      33  63  38  69 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          36  65  38  68 /  10   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       36  63  39  67 /  10   0   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     41  65  42  66 /  20   0   0  20
CHANUTE         40  65  40  66 /  20   0   0  20
IOLA            40  64  40  66 /  20   0   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    40  65  41  66 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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