Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 192333
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
633 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

SCATTERED SHOWERS & THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL & SOUTH
CENTRAL KS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THE WAKE OF A SOUTHEAST-MOVING
COLD FRONT THAT WAS ENTERING EXTREME EASTERN OK & NORTHWEST AR AT
3 PM. THE CONVECTION IS BEING TRIGGERED PRIMARILY BY SOME ELEVATED
INSTABILITY. THE NW WINDS THAT HAVE SPREAD ACROSS CENTRAL & SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ARE STRONG WITH SUSTAINED 30-35 MPH & GUSTS FROM 40-45
MPH OCCURRING IN THESE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THIS EVENING:
THE PRIMARY FORECAST IS ON SOUTHEAST KS WHERE NO DOUBT CLOSEST TO
WHERE THE SPC HAS PAINTED AN ENHANCED RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. (FROM EASTERN OK TO ACROSS ALL OF AR. A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE CONVECTION STILL CLIPS FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL & MORE SO
SOUTHEAST KS AS WAS DEPICTED YESTERDAY.) MLCAPES AREN`T NEARLY AS
HIGH AS WAS DEPICTED FOR SOUTHEAST KS ON YESTERDAY`S MODELS. THE
NAM & GFS HAD BOTH DEPICTED 2000-2500 J/KG FOR SOUTHEAST KS THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS HAD MADE SENSE AS THERE WERE INDICATIONS THAT THE
SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT WOULD DECELERATE AS IT APPROACHED
SOUTHEAST KS IN RESPONSE TO A SHEARING MID-UPPER WAVE THAT WAS THE
REMNANT OF A POWERFUL MID-UPPER CYCLONE THAT HAD MOVED EAST FROM
COLORADO. POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH NICKEL-SIZED
HAIL & 40-50 MPH WINDS STILL EXISTS ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS EARLY THIS
EVENING. ALL RAINFALL SHOULD END BY 8-9PM AS MUCH COOLER AIR
SPREADS THESE AREAS.

TONIGHT:
THERE WAS SOME CONCERN THAT FROST MAY DEVELOP IN RUSSELL & BARTON
COUNTIES EARLY MON MORNING BUT CHECKED THE SWING ON ISSUING A
FROST ADVISORY AS NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH WINDS SHOULD INHIBIT FROST
DEVELOPMENT.

TUE-WED:
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN & PERHAPS A COUPLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
STILL EXISTS FROM LATE TUE NIGHT (FOR MOST AREAS) TO PRIMARILY
SOUTH-CENTRAL & SOUTHEAST KS ON WED AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
CROSSES KS. THE WEAK MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
SE ON WED...WITH THE BOUNDARY TAKING ON A WEST-EAST ORIENTATION AS
THE MID-LEVEL PERTURBATION SCOOTS E ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY. THE
PATTERN IS FEEBLE SO ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD BEHAVE
ITSELF.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE GREATLY FRI AFTERNOON AS A
POTENT MID-UPPER DECK WAVE CROSSES AZ/NM FRI EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
CHARACTER SHEARS SLIGHTLY AS MOVES EAST ACROSS KS & OK A FEW OF
THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE QUITE STRONG.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

FOR ICT-SLN-HUT-RSL-CNU...VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIT EAST OF CNU BY
00Z. STOUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TO AROUND 10 KTS BY
01-02Z THIS EVENING...AS BOUNDARY LAYER DECOUPLES. BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED ONCE AGAIN BY LATE MORNING
MONDAY...ALTHOUGH NOT NEARLY AS STRONG AS THIS AFTERNOON`S WINDS.

ADK

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 335 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2015

THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE MON AFTERNOON
AS WINDS BACK TO A W/NW COMPONENT FROM 10-15 MPH.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    37  65  42  68 /  10   0   0  20
HUTCHINSON      36  64  40  68 /  10   0   0  20
NEWTON          36  63  40  66 /  10   0   0  20
ELDORADO        38  65  41  67 /  10   0   0  20
WINFIELD-KWLD   37  66  43  68 /  10   0   0  20
RUSSELL         33  63  38  69 /  10   0   0  10
GREAT BEND      33  63  38  69 /  10   0  10  10
SALINA          36  65  38  68 /  10   0   0  20
MCPHERSON       36  63  39  67 /  10   0   0  20
COFFEYVILLE     41  65  42  66 /  20   0   0  20
CHANUTE         40  65  40  66 /  20   0   0  20
IOLA            40  64  40  66 /  20   0   0  20
PARSONS-KPPF    40  65  41  66 /  20   0   0  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$


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