Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 230507
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL
SOUTH OF KANSAS TONIGHT ALONG THE SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY NEAR THE
RED RIVER AREA...HOWEVER A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS COULD TRY AND
MIGRATE NORTHWARD CLOSE TO THE KS/OK BORDER LATE TONIGHT.

CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS TWO UPPER LEVEL WAVES
OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE COASTLINE OF BAJA AND CALIFORNIA.
THE FIRST WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON THURSDAY AND LIFT
NORTHEAST INTO WESTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA THURSDAY NIGHT. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS DURING THE DAY
ON THURSDAY ALONG WITH EXPANSION LOW CLOUDS. THE LOW CLOUDS WILL
LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING AND WITH CAPPING TEMPERATURES ALOFT THIS LOOKS
TO PROHIBIT STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS. OTHERWISE
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT IN THE LOW LAYERS SHOULD BEGIN TO SATURATE
THE LOW LEVELS THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH DRIZZLE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORM CHANCES GOING THURSDAY
NIGHT BUT BETTER CHANCES MIGHT AFFECT OUR NORTHEAST/EASTERN COUNTIES
WHERE FOCUS ALONG MID-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IS MORE FAVORABLE.

MEANWHILE...THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL WAVE WILL BE ON THE HEELS OF THE
FIRST WAVE AND BE A MUCH STRONGER SYSTEM COMPARED TO THURSDAY NIGHTS
WAVE. MODELS SHOW THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE MOVING OUT INTO KANSAS
DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE KEY FOR FRIDAY WILL BE THE NORTHWARD
MIGRATION AND PLACEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED
DRYLINE...AS RICHER GULF MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTHWARD INTO KANSAS
ALONG WITH INCREASING WIND SHEAR ALOFT. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
DECENT SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES TOO OCCUR FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
LOCATIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ALONG AND BETWEEN THE TWO MENTIONED
BOUNDARIES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH MODEL TRENDS ON THE PLACEMENT
OF THE WARM FRONT AND DRY LINE BOUNDARIES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 235 PM CDT WED APR 22 2015

LONG RANGE MODELS AGREE ON THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CUTTING OFF AND
MOVING VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...HOWEVER
THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT CENTER OF THIS SYSTEM.
THIS WILL AFFECT PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR KANSAS WITH A MORE
NORTHERN PLACEMENT PROVIDING MUCH HIGHER PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR
THE AREA...MAINLY DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT
PERIOD.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1207 AM CDT THU APR 23 2015

POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS (1,500-2,500FT) 12-15Z CONTINUE TO BE THE
AVIATION FOCUS FOR THE 23/06Z EDITION. KRSL & KHUT WOULD BE THE
FIRST TO EXPERIENCE MVFR CIGS (~12Z) BUT IT APPEARS CIGS WL REMAIN
IN MVFR COUNTRY FOR MOST OF THE DAY THU. STILL ANTICIPATE -SHRA/TS
TO SPREAD ACRS THE REGION THU AFTN BUT HAVE CHECKED SWING ON
PROVIDING SPECIFICS SO AS TO ALLOW SUCCESSOR CHANCE TO STUDY
SUBSEQUENT MODEL RUNS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    54  77  53  73 /  30  40  30  10
HUTCHINSON      52  76  52  72 /  30  40  40  10
NEWTON          52  74  53  69 /  30  50  40  10
ELDORADO        53  73  53  72 /  30  50  40  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   54  76  53  74 /  30  40  30  10
RUSSELL         50  71  51  70 /  40  50  50  10
GREAT BEND      51  74  51  70 /  30  40  40  10
SALINA          50  69  53  69 /  40  60  50  20
MCPHERSON       51  73  52  69 /  40  50  50  10
COFFEYVILLE     52  72  56  74 /  40  50  50  10
CHANUTE         51  71  54  71 /  40  60  60  20
IOLA            51  70  54  70 /  40  60  60  20
PARSONS-KPPF    52  72  55  73 /  50  50  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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