Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 170535
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1235 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

A STRONG UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...BEFORE SHIFTING OVER PRIMARILY COLORADO/NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. THE UPPER LOW IS PROGGED TO GRADUALLY OPEN UP AND
WEAKEN SOME LATER IN THE WEEKEND...AS IT TRAVERSES SLOWLY EASTWARD
ACROSS KANSAS. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM NEAR THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY THIS EVE...WITH A DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL EXTEND
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. THE FRONT WILL
LIFT BACK NORTH ON FRIDAY...WITH THE DRYLINE REMAINING OVER THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. THE DRYLINE WILL SHIFT EAST TO CENTRAL
KS ON SATURDAY...AND WILL BE OVERTAKEN BY A COLD FRONT PASSING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS KANSAS ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

SCATTERED-NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING FROM THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
INTO CENTRAL KANSAS...AS A MID-UPPER JET STREAK (NOTED ON SATELLITE
WV IMAGERY) NOSES INTO THE REGION FROM NEW MEXICO ENHANCING LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND DRYLINE. SHEAR/INSTABILITY
FAVOR SUPERCELLS MAINLY FROM SOUTHWEST KS SOUTHWARD INTO THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES...AND STRONG-SEVERE MULTICELLS FURTHER NORTHEAST ALONG
THE FRONT. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL AFFECT CENTRAL KS AND THE
WESTERN PART OF S-CNTRL KS. HOWEVER...THE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR DROPS OFF
ROUGHLY TO THE EAST OF I-135. REDUCED RAIN CHANCES SUBSTANTIALLY
EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...WITH THE LIFT FOCUSING FURTHER WEST.

CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED MORNING CONVECTION (SOME CORES WITH HAIL) COULD
BE ONGOING FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN KS...AND THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD PROGRESS EAST AND DIMINISH DURING THE AFTERNOON. RENEWED
SURFACE-BASED STRONG-SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FRIDAY
PM/EVE...GIVEN SUFFICIENT CLEARING/INSOLATION NEAR AND JUST EAST OF
THE DRYLINE EXTENDING FROM NORTHWEST KS...TO WESTERN OK. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP IN RESPONSE TO DIFFLUENT UPPER FLOW AND STRONG
SURFACE-850 CONVERGENCE NEAR THE DRYLINE...HOWEVER IT WILL INITIATE
TO THE WEST OF CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS AND 850-300 MB MEAN FLOW
FAVORS NORTHWARD MOVING STORMS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD REACH
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET
VEERS...BUT WOULD ANTICIPATE A WEAKENING TREND OVERNIGHT WITH
DIURNAL INSTABILITY DROPPING OFF QUICKLY.

LINGERING CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED CONVECTION OVER EASTERN KANSAS
SATURDAY MORNING...SHOULD DIMINISH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE UPPER LOW
AND DRYLINE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY EAST SATURDAY...PUTTING
CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR SURFACE-BASED
STRONG-SEVERE STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVE. THE NAM12 PATTERN
RESEMBLES H5 COLD CORE/LOW TOPPED SUPERCELL POTENTIAL VIA SEVERAL
ASPECTS INCLUDING 150-300 J/KG OF SURFACE-3KM CAPE...GIVEN STRONG
INSOLATION OCCURS WITH STEEPENED LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES.

LINGERING SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AS THE REMNANT
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH EASTERN KS. RAIN CHANCES WILL END
SUNDAY NIGHT BEHIND THE DEPARTING WAVE.

SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMO TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY...TAPERING BACK TO NEAR CLIMO ON SUNDAY.

JMC

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

THE MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD WILL FEATURE A SPLIT UPPER FLOW
PATTERN...WITH A PERSISTENT UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES...A
CLOSED UPPER HIGH FORMING OVER WESTERN CANADA...AND A NEW UPPER LOW
FORMING WITHIN THE SUBTROPICAL BELT OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS FOR THE LATTER PART OF
APRIL. A DRIER AIRMASS WILL AFFECT THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK BEHIND
THIS WEEKEND`S DEPARTING SYSTEM. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES MAY RETURN
TOWARD MID-LATE WEEK...AS WEAK SHORTWAVES EJECT OUT OF THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES CLOSED LOW...AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS
RETURNING NORTHWARD.

JMC

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1229 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

AVIATION CONCERNS WILL BE STORMS OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH LOW CLOUD
AND FOG POTENTIAL.

AS THE STORMS VERY SLOWLY LIFTED OUT OF WESTERN OK THEY DEVELOPED
AN MCV WHICH IS VERY EVIDENT VIA REGIONAL 88D MOSAIC CENTERED OVER
HARPER COUNTY. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO VERY SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEAST WITH THE STORMS AFFECTING KICT AFTER 08Z. SO THE
THINKING HASN`T CHANGED THAT THE SITES ALONG AND WEST OF I-135
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE AT STORMS THROUGH 12Z. SOME FOG STILL
LOOKS POSSIBLE OVER KCNU AFTER 09Z BUT NOT NEARLY AS CONFIDENCE AS
I WAS LAST NIGHT AT THIS TIME. SO FOR NOW JUST RAN WITH A 2SM
TEMPO AFTER 09Z. WE SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN CONVECTION AFTER THIS
MCV LIFTS NORTHEAST AND WEAKENS DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING
HOURS.

LAWSON

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 220 PM CDT THU APR 16 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL REMAIN LOW GIVEN RECENT RAINFALL...AND
THE OUTLOOK FOR ADDITIONAL RAIN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  74  53  68 /  60  40  40  30
HUTCHINSON      56  74  51  66 /  60  40  40  40
NEWTON          59  74  53  66 /  60  40  40  40
ELDORADO        59  74  53  68 /  60  60  30  40
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  75  53  71 /  60  50  40  40
RUSSELL         52  73  48  63 /  60  40  40  40
GREAT BEND      53  73  48  63 /  60  40  40  30
SALINA          57  73  51  65 /  60  40  40  50
MCPHERSON       57  74  52  65 /  60  40  40  40
COFFEYVILLE     58  74  55  72 /  60  60  30  50
CHANUTE         59  73  55  70 /  60  60  30  60
IOLA            59  73  55  69 /  60  60  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    58  75  55  70 /  60  60  30  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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