Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 041144
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
644 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

...UPDATED FOR 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

SOME LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KS
EARLY THIS MORNING...AS CURRENT RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WEAK MCV
POSSIBLY SWIRLING INTO CENTRAL KS THIS MORNING. CURRENT SHORT
TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER ACROSS CENTRAL
KS THIS MORNING...WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE CONSIDERING THE MCV
MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA.

FOCUS THEN TURNS TO THIS AFTERNOON...AS LAST NIGHTS CONVECTION IN
NORTHERN NEB PUSHED THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY A LITTLE FURTHER
SOUTH...CLOSER TO CENTRAL KS.  AN UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO
POOL ALONG THIS BOUNDARY FOR THIS AFTERNOON...AS CAPPING INVERSION
SLOWLY ERODES LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE IN NEW
MEXICO LIFTS NE ACROSS KS. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME STRONG TO
MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL KS...GIVEN THE
UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KTS. THINK MULTICELL
CLUSTERS WILL BE THE MAIN STORM MODE...WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN...GIVEN THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR.

NOT SURE HOW FAR SOUTH THE STORMS WILL PROPAGATE THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT...GIVEN THE WEAK MID LEVEL FLOW. SO WILL KEEP MOST OF THE
POPS NORTHWEST OF A GREAT BEND TO SALINA LINE.

AFTER THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...EXPECT THE STORM ACTIVITY TO WANE
OR END FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS ON TUE. BUT THIS BREAK IN THE PRECIP
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS THE NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE SW FLOW BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE PLAINS FOR TUE AFTERNOON AND TUE NIGHT. INCREASED
MOISTURE TRANSPORT WILL BE LOCATED ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THIS
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE NAM/WRF
AND THE GFS/ECMWF ON HOW THIS SHORTWAVE WILL LIFT NE ACROSS KS. GFS
BRINGS A PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS THE PLAINS ON TUE AFTERNOON AND THEN
THE MAIN IMPULSE FOR TUE NIGHT. WHILE THE NAM/WRF AND ECMWF BRING
THIS IMPULSE THROUGH MAINLY TUE NIGHT. PREFER THE MORE CONSISTENT
ECMWF AND NAM/WRF...SO WILL HOLD OFF ON THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL TUE NIGHT AFTER 00Z/WED.  SURFACE BASED
INSTABILITY/SHEAR APPEARS MEAGER FOR A WIDESPREAD SEVERE STORM
CHANCE GIVEN THE WEAK MID LEVEL WINDS. COULD SEE SOME STRONG STORMS
GIVEN SOME ENHANCED EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR FROM THE IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA. CERTAINLY LOOKS LIKE A WIDESPREAD RAIN CHANCE FOR
MOST LOCATIONS...AS MOISTURE RICH SOUTHERLY FLOW LEADS TO NUMEROUS
MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA.

SHEAR AND INSTABILITY INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION FOR WED. BUT NOT
SURE HOW WED WILL PLAY OUT AS TUE NIGHT CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS
THE AREA FOR THE MORNING HOURS ON WED WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER.
EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO WANE DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON WED...AS SOME
SUBSIDENCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA...BUT IF THE AIRMASS CAN RECOVER
FOR WED AFTERNOON/WED EVENING. THEN ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS POSSIBLE AS A DRY LINE PUSHES INTO WRN SECTIONS
OF THE FORECAST AREA. BULK SHEAR AND INSTABILITY LOOKS A LOT MORE
IMPRESSIVE FOR WED EVENING...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A MORE WIDESPREAD
SEVERE WEATHER CHANCE AS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTS A SUPERCELL
CHANCE. COULD SEE MORE DISCRETE STORMS ON WED EVENING.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 324 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

SW TO SOUTHERLY FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA FOR THU
THROUGH SAT. A SERIES OF IMPULSES ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE SW
US AND MOVE NE ACROSS THE PLAINS FOR THIS TIME FRAME...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO PERIODIC STORM CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH PRECIP THE FORECAST AREA GETS ON
TUE/WED...SATURATED GROUNDS MAY LEAD TO AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
LOCALIZED FLOODING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. WITH THE SW FLOW
REMAINING IN PLACE...THE QUASI STATIONARY SURFACE BOUNDARY IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL KS. INCREASED SHEAR FOR BOTH
THU/FRI AND COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND AN UNSTABLE
AIRMASS SUGGESTS A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THU
(CENTRAL KS) AND THE REST OF THE AREA FOR FRI. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE
TO KEEP AN EYE ON CENTRAL KS FOR FLOODING CONCERNS DUE TO THE SLOW
MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS AND POTENTIAL TRAINING STORMS.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 644 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

MAIN AVIATION FORECAST CONCERN THIS MORNING IS WIND
DIRECTION...AND THE MAIN CONCERN LATER TODAY/TONIGHT IS
CONVECTION. A FRONT COMBINED WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAVE MADE
MORNING SURFACE WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
KANSAS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ELSEWHERE. EXPECT
SOUTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND BE BREEZY AT
THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS...INCLUDING KICT/KCNU/KHUT. KRSL/KSLN COULD
SEE MORE VARIABLE WINDS AS THE FRONT COULD RESIDE NEAR THERE
LONGER BEFORE WINDS SWITCH BACK TO THE SOUTH.

EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO IMPACT THE REGION LATER TODAY INTO THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE MAIN AREA OF CONCERN WILL IS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS IN THE KRSL/KSLN TAFS AFTER
00Z FOR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBILITIES ALONG/NEAR THE FRONT. OTHERWISE
EXPECT VFR TAFS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    82  61  77  62 /  10  10  10  80
HUTCHINSON      81  61  77  62 /  20  20  20  80
NEWTON          81  60  76  62 /  10  10  10  80
ELDORADO        81  61  78  61 /  10  10  10  80
WINFIELD-KWLD   82  61  77  62 /  10  10  10  80
RUSSELL         82  59  75  61 /  60  50  50  70
GREAT BEND      82  59  73  61 /  40  40  50  70
SALINA          81  61  78  63 /  30  30  10  80
MCPHERSON       81  61  76  62 /  20  20  10  80
COFFEYVILLE     81  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  70
CHANUTE         80  59  79  61 /  10  10  10  70
IOLA            80  59  79  60 /  10  10  10  70
PARSONS-KPPF    81  60  79  61 /  10  10  10  70

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$



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