Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 212012
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH A FEW
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AS CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE
BOUNDARY WITH AIRMASS CURRENTLY UNCAPPED AND CAPE VALUES AROUND
1000J/KG. THERE IS ENOUGH SHEAR PRESENT ALOFT FOR A FEW STRONG
STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS TO OCCUR.

MEANWHILE...CURRENT SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A UPPER
LEVEL WAVE JUST OFF THE COASTLINE OF BAJA. THIS SYSTEM WILL TRACK
EAST/NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO
OKLAHOMA DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AHEAD OF THIS UPPER LEVEL WAVE WITH THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY
SOUTH OF THE KANSAS OKLAHOMA BORDER. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY AFFECTING
SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. OTHERWISE WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FOR THURSDAY...THUS KEEPING MUCH OF THE
AREA DRY HOWEVER UPSLOPE FLOW OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE COULD GENERATE
SOME AFTERNOON/EVENING STORMS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS OF EASTERN
COLORADO AND WESTERN KANSAS. A WARM FRONT BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO
LIFT NORTHWARD FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY ACROSS KANSAS...AS
NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE
COAST OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO BAJA REGION AND
EJECTS NORTHEAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE
TRANSPORT INCREASES WITH BETTER CHANCES OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
KANSAS...WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO ELEVATED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. THE RICHER GULF MOISTURE LOOKS TO BE IN PLACE OVER THE
REGION ON FRIDAY...WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT TIME HOURS GIVEN EXPECTED SHEAR/INSTABILITY
OVER THE AREA.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 258 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

MODELS SHOW ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKING TO AFFECT THE AREA ON
SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS/STORMS. OTHERWISE...DRY
AND QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD BE IN STORE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK
ACROSS KANSAS.

JAKUB

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1207 PM CDT TUE APR 21 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THRU THE FORECAST VALID PERIOD.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH ACROSS THE
AREA. THE RELATIVELY BETTER CHANCES WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...WHERE VCTS WILL BE MENTIONED. THE
DIURNALLY GUSTY WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME
LIGHT THIS EVENING BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST AND BECOMING
GUSTY FOR SEVERAL HOURS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

KED

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    46  63  46  64 /  10  10  10  10
HUTCHINSON      43  63  44  64 /  10  10  10  10
NEWTON          43  63  44  64 /  10  10  10  10
ELDORADO        45  63  45  64 /  10  10  10  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   49  64  47  65 /  30  30  20  10
RUSSELL         39  63  42  63 /  10  10  10  10
GREAT BEND      41  62  44  64 /  10  10  10  10
SALINA          39  61  41  63 /  10  10  10  10
MCPHERSON       42  62  43  64 /  10  10  10  10
COFFEYVILLE     49  64  46  64 /  30  20  20  30
CHANUTE         45  62  44  63 /  20  10  10  20
IOLA            44  61  44  63 /  20  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    47  63  45  64 /  20  20  20  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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