Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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FXUS63 KICT 061725
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1225 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

TODAY-TONIGHT: WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST OR EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS. COULD ACTUALLY BE SEEING THE BACK EDGE OF THE
SHOWERS OVER WRN OK AT THIS TIME. EXPECT MOST OF THE SHOWER
ACTIVITY TO END FROM SW TO NE AS THE MORNING CONTINUES. SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW THIS AFTERNOON WILL EVOLVE AS LOTS OF REMNANT
CLOUD COVER WILL HAMPER ATMOSPHERIC RECOVERY ACROSS THE AREA FOR
LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM CHANCES.

LATEST SHORT TERM HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST MOST OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS
WILL BREAK OUT FROM THE CLOUD COVER....AS DRYLINE BEGINS TO PUSH
EAST TOWARDS AREAS JUST WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS. WITH THIS INCREASED HEATING...LATEST FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW AREAS SW OF ICT BECOMING UNCAPPED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MLCAPE VALUES OF 2000-2500 J/KG AND BULK SHEAR OF
35-40 KTS. SO THINK A FEW DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
TRIPLE POINT SOMEWHERE TO THE SW OF KICT LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR
EARLY THIS EVENING.  THIS KIND OF SHEAR AND DIRECTIONAL SHEAR (NICE
CURVING HODOGRAPH) SUGGESTS LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO...GIVEN THIS HODOGRAPH...AS 0-1KM
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY INCREASES TO 200 J2/KG2...AND SURFACE WINDS
BACK JUST AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE. NOT EXPECTING AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE
WEATHER...BUT THINK A COUPLE OF SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS MAY PRODUCE
SOME SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER WITH POSSIBLY SOME VERY LARGE HAIL.

THINK THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL
AROUND MIDNIGHT...WITH THE SUPERCELLS AND POSSIBLE TORNADO THREAT
CONTINUING WELL AFTER DARK...AS MLCAPE REMAINS AROUND 2000 J/KG AND
THE LOW LEVEL JET INCREASES DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LAYERS.

EXPECT STORMS TO WANE AFTER MIDNIGHT AS SOME WARMER AIR ALOFT
EFFECTIVELY ENDS THE STORMS.

THU-FRI: THE MOISTURE RICH ENVIRONMENT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE
REGION FOR THU AND INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL LEAD
TO SEVERAL PERIODS OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS TIME FRAME.

EXPECT THE DRYLINE/SURFACE BOUNDARY TO MAKE A LITTLE MORE PROGRESS
TO THE EAST INTO CENTRAL KS FOR THU AFTERNOON/EVENING AS A LOW
PRESSURE AREA DEVELOPS OVER SW KS. THIS WILL CREATE ANOTHER TRIPLE
POINT ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS...AS CONVERGENCE IS A LITTLE BETTER ON
THU THAN TODAY.  SO THINK SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD ON THU AS ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES LATE THU AFTERNOON
AND CONVERGENCE INCREASES. BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KTS AND MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1500-2000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO PRODUCE SEVERE WEATHER WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  CANNOT RULE OUT A TORNADO OR TWO
...ESPECIALLY OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS...DURING THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...AS SURFACE WINDS BACK NEAR THE TRIPLE POINT.

AS THU EVENING PROGRESSES...LOW LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE...WHICH WILL
LEAD TO CONVECTION FILLING IN AND BECOMING SOME SORT OF NORTHEAST
FORWARD PROPAGATING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS). WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS ON THU...FOR POSSIBLE TRAINING STORMS AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING.

FORECAST GETS A LITTLE MESSIER FOR FRI...AS POSITION OF THE MAIN
SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL BE PROBLEMATIC AT BEST.  BUT GFS AND ECMWF
SUGGESTS THAT THE BOUNDARY WILL BE BECOME QUASI STATIONARY ON
FRI...LOCATED SOMEWHERE ACROSS CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL  KS.
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LOCATED TO THE
SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...AS ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE ROTATES NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS FOR FRI AFTERNOON/EVENING. COULD SEE ANOTHER SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT ON FRI EVENING...WITH 40 KTS OF BULK SHEAR AND AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE. GFS STILL SUGGESTS CONVECTION
WILL EVOLVE INTO A SLOW MOVING CONVECTIVE COMPLEX (MCS) OF STORMS
ACROSS SOUTHERN KS FRI NIGHT. WILL CERTAINLY HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON
THE FLOODING THREAT...AS SOILS WILL PROBABLY BE SATURATED BY THIS
TIME...AND THIS MCS COULD LEAD TO ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVY RAIN.

KETCHAM

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

A MORE SIGNIFICANT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS LOOKS TO ARRIVE ON SAT
AFTERNOON...AS THE MAIN UPPER LOW THAT HAS KEPT MOST OF THE PLAINS
IN THE SW FLOW BEGINS TO FINALLY PUSHES EAST-NORTHEAST INTO THE
PLAINS FOR SAT.  WITH THE BETTER ASCENT AND INCREASED BULK SHEAR AND
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE STILL AROUND UNDER A WEAKLY CAPPED
ENVIRONMENT...THIS SUGGESTS A POSSIBLE HIGH END SEVERE STORM CHANCE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SOME PARAMETERS SUGGESTING A MORE
WIDESPREAD OUTBREAK OF SEVERE WEATHER AND SUPERCELLS FOR SAT
EVENING.

DRIER AIR LOOKS TO PUSH INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
SUNDAY...WITH THE MAIN SURFACE BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS THE FLINT
HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KS.  SOME UNCERTAINTY ON PLACEMENT OF THE
BOUNDARY FOR SUNDAY...WITH A SLOWER MOVEMENT SUGGESTING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SEVERE STORMS FOR SE KS ON SUN.

MEDIUM RANGE CONSENSUS SUPPORTS MUCH QUIETER WEATHER BY EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE EJECTS NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION...AND A DRYER AIRMASS FILTERS SOUTH INTO THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL ALLOW THE REGION TO DRY OUT AT LEAST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK.

KETCHAM

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

ONGOING WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CEILINGS ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL
KS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE WITH HEIGHT DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WITH SOME BREAKS LIKLEY AS MIXING INCREASES.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SEPARATED SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS
PM/EVE...POSSIBLY AFFECTING TERMINALS ALONG/WEST OF INTERSTATE
135. WILL INCLUDE VCTS AT RSL...SLN...HUT...ICT SINCE COVERAGE
IS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. STORMS MAY AFFECT CNU LATE TONIGHT
ALTHOUGH DIMINISHING IN INTENSITY BY THEN. AREAS OF LOW MVFR OR
IFR CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS UNDERNEATH LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS.

JMC

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 341 AM CDT WED MAY 6 2015

WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT..WITH SOME AREAS RECEIVING OVER AN INCH OF RAINFALL.
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN
TODAY AND EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING THROUGH SAT.  ADDITIONAL HEAVY
RAINFALL MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING THIS EVENING...WITH THE
CHANCES OF FLOODING AND RIVER FLOODING INCREASING FOR THU THROUGH
SAT NIGHTS.

KETCHAM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    76  66  79  62 /  50  40  40  70
HUTCHINSON      77  64  79  59 /  40  40  40  70
NEWTON          75  64  78  60 /  50  40  40  70
ELDORADO        75  65  78  62 /  60  40  40  70
WINFIELD-KWLD   77  66  78  63 /  50  40  30  70
RUSSELL         77  61  80  55 /  50  40  50  50
GREAT BEND      77  62  79  56 /  50  30  50  60
SALINA          76  65  79  58 /  50  40  50  60
MCPHERSON       76  64  78  59 /  40  40  40  70
COFFEYVILLE     75  66  79  64 /  70  30  40  60
CHANUTE         75  65  79  63 /  70  30  40  60
IOLA            75  64  78  63 /  70  30  30  60
PARSONS-KPPF    75  66  79  64 /  70  30  40  60

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>051-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

$$


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