Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

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000
FXUS63 KICT 171748
AFDICT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1248 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

...UPDATED FOR 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

A MAIN UPPER LOW IS SPINNING OFF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION IS
WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS FOR THE
NEXT FEW DAYS. A LINE OF STRATIFORM SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IS
SLOWLY MOVING EAST...NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS...WITH A
SECONDARY LINE MOVING EAST...NORTHEAST FROM WESTERN OKLAHOMA. THIS
WILL BE WHAT TO WATCH FOR THE MORNING HOURS...BRINGING SOME MUCH
NEEDED RAIN TO SOME PARCHED AREAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1040 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

INITIAL ROUND OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO
LIFT EAST-NORTHEAST FOR THE LATE MORNING HOURS. THIS AREA OF SHOWERS
ARE THE REMNANTS OF THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTIVE COMPLEX THAT MOVED
NORTHEAST OUT OF OK.  SEEING SOME CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE
CONVECTION ACROSS THE WRN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A BUBBLE HIGH
MOVES ACROSS NRN OK. BUT THIS PORTION OF THE AREA WAS WORKED OVER BY
THE OVERNIGHT STORMS.

MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER THE CO ROCKIES WITH MOST
OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAINING IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW AHEAD OF THIS
SYSTEM WITH LOTS OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS KS.  SO THE MAIN
CONCERN FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS WILL BE THE CLEARING ACROSS WRN KS
JUST AHEAD OF THIS LOW WITH THE AFTERNOON HEATING EXPECTED TO
DESTABILIZE MOST OF WRN KS AND WRN OK. ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME
UNCAPPED ACROSS KS THIS AFTERNOON....AS HEATING INCREASES THE
STABILITY FOR CONVECTION TO DEVELOP. LATEST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST
AREAS OVER WRN OK WILL DESTABILIZE FIRST...WITH SOME CONVECTION
ALREADY TRYING TO REDEVELOP. EXPECT THIS CONVECTION TO MAKE ITS WAY
NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH THE LIFT FROM THE UPPER LOW AND AN
UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL LEAD TO RAPID UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY
FOR AREAS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL KS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.  BULK SHEAR
AROUND 40 KTS AND INCREASED DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTS STRONG
STORMS...POSSIBLY A FEW SEVERE STORMS...WITH LARGE HAIL THE MAIN
CONCERN.  CANNOT RULE OUT A WEAK TORNADO OR TWO....ESPECIALLY OVER
CENTRAL KS...WHERE SOUTHEAST-EAST SURFACE WINDS MAY LEAD TO A COLD
CORE TORNADO CHANCE GIVEN THE INCREASED STRETCHING FROM THE STEEP
LAPSES. COULD SEE A MIXED STORM MODE...WITH SOME LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS AND MULTICELLS.

KETCHAM

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THIS PERIOD REMAINS ACTIVE WITH THE UPPER LOW SLOWLY SPINNING OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS AND SLOWLY EJECTING EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3
DAYS. THIS WILL BE THE WEATHER MAKER...AND RAIN PRODUCER FOR THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS.

TODAY/TONIGHT:
CURRENTLY TRACKING THE TWO LINES OF CONVECTION...THE FIRST A
FIZZLING AREA OF STRATIFORM RAIN WITH THE SECOND STILL A
CONVECTIVE LINE MOVING EAST NORTHEASTWARD. SHORT-TERM HIGH-RES
GUIDANCE SHOWED THIS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE EASTWARD OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL KANSAS AND EVENTUALLY BY MID DAY UP OVER NORTHEAST KANSAS.
THIS WILL BRING A NICE AREA OF LIGHT RAIN FOR THE MORNING.

BY THIS AFTERNOON CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO AGAIN DEVELOP WEST TO
SOUTHWEST OF THE AREA...CLOSER TO THE DRYLINE AND MOVE EASTWARD
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY
SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS BEING THE
MAIN THREAT...BUT A FEW TORNADOS ARE POSSIBLE...BUT REALLY EXPECT
THAT THREAT TO REMAIN SOUTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS AN MCS EXITING TO THE EAST BY MORNING.

SATURDAY:
THINK SATURDAY WILL BE YET ANOTHER DAY WITH SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER...AND ENDING IN A WET DAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL APPROACH
FROM THE WEST...WITH THE MAIN ENERGY OVER COLORADO...WESTERN
KANSAS. THE DRY LINE WILL PUSH SLIGHTLY FURTHER EASTWARD. THINK
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BE DRY IN THE MORNING AS THE
EARLIER POSSIBLE MCS WILL BE OVER EAST. DEPENDING ON THE DYNAMICS
OF THE SYSTEM...CONCERNED THAT THERE COULD BE SOMEWHAT OF AN
EARLIER START...BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGHEST WITH A MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON START. AGAIN PARAMETERS ARE IN LINE FOR SEVERE
STORMS...LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS. TORNADOES AGAIN AREA A
CONCERN WITH LOW LEVEL EHI/HELICITY/CAPE VALUES IN LINE. WILL
WANT TO WATCH AS THE PERIOD NEARS. BETTER VALUES DO STAY SOUTH IN
OKLAHOMA...BUT THEY EXTEND NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN KANSAS.

SUNDAY:
THE MAIN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD...LIFT AHEAD OF THE WAVE WILL FORCE PRECIP. AS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT AND UPPER LOW MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD INSTABILITY
WILL WANE AND THUNDERSHOWERS WILL TURN TO RAIN SHOWERS.

OVERALL...THIS SYSTEM COULD BRING AN AVERAGE OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN
TO THE AREA WITH AREAS SEEING MORE OR LESS WITH THE CONVECTIVE
NATURE OF THE STORMS. HOPEFULLY HELPING THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AREAS
OF KANSAS.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

THE UPPER LOW WILL TAKE ITS SWEET TIME EXITING TO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES...AND KANSAS WILL SIT IN THE WAKE.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MODERATE TO NEAR NORMAL IN THE 60S TO LOW
70S. THERE REMAIN SOME DISCREPANCIES AMONGST THE GUIDANCE BUT THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE REGION LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY WHEN THUNDERSTORMS RETURN TO THE FORECAST.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1247 PM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

EXPECT DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON AS AFTERNOON HEATING INCREASES AND AIRMASS DESTABILIZES.
SO WILL GO WITH VCTS FOR MOST AREAS...AS PINNING DOWN AREAS OF
HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF SHOWERS WILL BE DIFFICULT AT BEST...DUE TO
THE SCATTERED NATURE. EVEN WITH THE SCATTERED STORMS AROUND...CIGS
WILL REMAIN VFR...WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION AROUND STRONG TSRA WHERE
SOME MVFR VSBYS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

THINK THE CHANCES OF SCATTERED TSRA INCREASES THIS EVENING FOR MOST
LOCATIONS...WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTION DIMINISHING AFTER 09Z/SAT.

COULD SEE SOME MVFR CIGS DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THIS CONVECTION FOR
MOST TAF LOCATIONS BY AROUND 12Z/SAT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
HIGH.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 340 AM CDT FRI APR 17 2015

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ARE LOW THROUGH THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF THE
FORECAST WITH WET CONDITIONS BEING THE MAIN FORECAST TREND.
THE GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER INDEX REMAINS BELOW CRITICAL INDICES.

BILLINGS WRIGHT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    74  58  75  53 /  80  70  50  50
HUTCHINSON      73  56  74  51 /  80  80  50  50
NEWTON          73  58  74  52 /  90  70  40  50
ELDORADO        75  59  74  54 / 100  70  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   74  59  75  54 /  90  70  50  50
RUSSELL         70  53  73  49 /  70  80  50  50
GREAT BEND      70  53  75  49 /  70  80  50  50
SALINA          74  57  75  52 / 100  70  50  50
MCPHERSON       74  57  74  51 /  90  80  50  50
COFFEYVILLE     78  60  73  56 /  50  70  70  50
CHANUTE         77  60  72  55 /  50  70  70  50
IOLA            76  60  71  55 /  40  70  70  50
PARSONS-KPPF    77  60  73  56 /  50  70  70  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$


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