Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albuquerque, NM

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FXUS65 KABQ 020929
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
329 AM MDT THU APR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AS A STORM SYSTEM SLIDES EAST THROUGH UTAH AND COLORADO TODAY...STRONG
WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE
REGION TONIGHT...LOWERING HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY TO NEAR AVERAGE
WEST AND BELOW AVERAGE EAST. WINDS WILL ALSO SUBSIDE IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE AND THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SHOWERS LATE-DAY SATURDAY
INTO SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE MODERATE TO STRONG WEST WINDS PUSH THE
MOISTURE EAST OF THE SATE SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIVING INTO NRN CALIFORNIA AND NW NEVADA EARLY
THIS MORNING. INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE HAS ALREADY MOVED OVER NM AND WILL MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF DAYTIME HEATING. WIND ADVISORY SPEEDS
ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH WIND ADVISORIES IN EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL JUST AFTER
SUNSET. ASSOCIATED DRY COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF NM THIS EVENING. NAM AND GFS BOTH TRENDING DRIER WITH
PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACKDOOR FRONTAL SURGE EXPECTED
AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE FAR NE PLAINS
TONIGHT AS A RESULT.

EAST/SE RETURN FLOW SETS UP FRIDAY NIGHT...TRANSPORTING LOW LEVEL
GULF MOISTURE INTO THE FORECAST AREA. BOTH NAM AND GFS INDICATING
A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL NM SATURDAY EVENING AND
SATURDAY NIGHT AS A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH. SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE SUNDAY...SCOURING OUT THE
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. THE STRONG WEST WINDS CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AHEAD
OF SEVERAL WAVES RACING EAST-NEWD THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES.

MODELS CONTINUE SOMEWHAT AT ODDS BEYOND TUESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER WITH
A CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS
FEATURE IS PROGGED TO EVENTUALLY DRIFT SEWD THROUGH NRN NM DURING
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK. ECMWF IS WEAKER WITH THE LOW AND
IS MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH REGARD TO ITS EAST OR SE MOVEMENT. BOTH
MODELS...HOWEVER...KEEP THE SFC PATTERN AND RESULTING SENSIBLE
WEATHER SIMILAR DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
OCCASIONAL BACKDOOR FRONTS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND PERHAPS AS FAR WEST AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TODAY...AND LIKELY
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...

VERY DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE FOR MUCH OF
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK. A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL RESULT IN LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE EAST ON FRIDAY AND CENTRAL ZONES ON
SATURDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS DOMINATING THROUGH MID WEEK.

NEAR ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY IN PLACE OVER NEW MEXICO...
WITH A TROUGH DEEPENING OVER THE WEST COAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE JUST NORTH OF THE STATE. A STRONG JET BETWEEN THESE TWO
SYSTEMS IS ALREADY POSITIONED OVER NORTHWEST ZONES AND WILL MAKE
STEADY EASTWARD PROGRESS DURING THE DAY. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES
RANGE FROM POOR TO FAIR...AND DAYTIME RH VALUES WILL STEADILY
DECREASE DURING THE MORNING HOURS. REASONABLY DEEP MIXING AND A
DEEPENING SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHERN COLORADO WILL SUPPORT STRONG
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS BY AFTERNOON AS HAINES VALUES INCREASE TO 5
OR 6 OVER MUCH OF THE AREA.  THUS...THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS
UNCHANGED WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED ALL ZONES
BUT THE NORTHERN HIGHEST TERRAIN WHERE SNOW PACK IS STILL IN PLACE.
AN AREA OF CONVECTION NORTHEAST OF THE STATE HAS RESULTED IN A WEAK
WIND SHIFT INTO THE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL MIX OUT FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS
MORNING...BUT THE NORTHEAST ZONES WILL BE A LITTLE SLOWER TO DEVELOP
GUSTY WINDS.

TEMPERATURES TO DROP A FEW DEGREES TODAY AND EVEN MORESO TONIGHT AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS AND THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST OF THE STATE.

A SHORT BREAK FROM CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES EAST...WINDS SHIFT TO
THE NORTH ACROSS EASTERN ZONES WITH A BACK DOOR FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT ON THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. COOLER AIR
AND INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN
PLACE EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY. CENTRAL AND WESTERN
ZONES REMAIN VERY DRY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES...BUT NORTHWEST
WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER AND BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

GAP WINDS INTO THE CENTRAL VALLEY OVERNIGHT ON FRIDAY WILL RESULT IN
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. MIN RH WILL
REMAIN BELOW 15 PERCENT ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BUT
WINDS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS...BUT THIS AREA COULD
SEE SOME SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS FOR AN HOUR OR TWO IN THE LATE
AFTERNOON. RH RECOVERIES BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE
FROM POOR ACROSS THE WEST TO FAIR TO GOOD ACROSS THE EAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WEST OF THE STATE AND SURFACE LEE TROUGHING
ARE IN PLACE BY SUNDAY SUPPORTING THE RETURN OF WINDY AND DRY
CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOK TO FAVOR THE
WEST...THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS ON SUNDAY WITH AN
INCREASE IN COVERAGE ON MONDAY.

EXTENDED MODELS AGREE THAT DRY AIR REMAINS INTO AT LEAST THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. BREEZY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AND ARE CURRENTLY
JUST BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLDS IN THE GRIDS...BUT WITH HIGH HAINES
BOTH DAYS SOME AREAS WITH CRITICAL CONDITIONS CANT BE RULED OUT AT
THIS TIME.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SFC WIND SHIFT NE NM DUE TO LINE OF CONVECTION OVER KS EXPECTED
06Z-12Z...THEN SFC LOW/LEE TROF TO REDEVELOP AND DEEPEN...AS
UPPER DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN AND SRN CO. AT THE
SAME TIME...WLY WINDS ALOFT TO STRENGTHEN...AND MIX DOWN TO THE
SFC AFT 18Z. GUSTS TO 40-45KTS POSSIBLE WITH LOCALIZED REDUCED
VSBYS IN BLDU.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  69  28  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  65  23  59  23 /   0   5   0   0
CUBA............................  66  27  58  28 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  68  24  61  25 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  63  23  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  69  23  62  25 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  66  29  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  73  38  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  58  23  52  24 /   0   5   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  64  34  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  64  32  58  31 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  62  25  55  25 /   0   5   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  53  23  48  24 /   0   5   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  56  21  51  19 /   0   5   0   5
TAOS............................  63  26  55  25 /   0   5   0   0
MORA............................  63  29  54  27 /   0   5   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  71  35  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  65  35  58  34 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  69  31  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  72  38  64  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  75  40  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  77  36  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  76  39  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  79  35  68  35 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  75  39  66  39 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  81  41  70  41 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  67  33  59  32 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  69  33  61  31 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  29  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  69  33  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  69  37  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  75  41  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  70  37  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  65  27  51  28 /   0  10   5   5
RATON...........................  68  27  56  26 /   0  10   5   5
SPRINGER........................  70  30  56  28 /   0   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  67  28  55  28 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  74  35  56  34 /   0  10  10   5
ROY.............................  74  31  57  30 /   0   5   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  80  42  61  38 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  78  40  61  36 /   0   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  84  40  62  35 /   0   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  81  41  60  36 /   0   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  84  42  61  36 /   0   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  82  43  62  38 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  87  47  68  41 /   0   5   0   5
PICACHO.........................  78  45  63  38 /   0   5   0   5
ELK.............................  73  45  62  37 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ501>506-510-515-521>523-526>529.

&&

$$

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