Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Binghamton, NY

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FXUS61 KBGM 210836
AFDBGM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY
436 AM EDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM. THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WILL BE
UNSETTLED AND COOL WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WHICH COULD MIX
WITH WET SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS. SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT MOST LOCATIONS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
4 AM UPDATE...

BACK EDGE OF CURRENT RAIN HAS MOVED INTO CENTRAL NY ON ITS WAY
EAST. BY 8 AM ONLY EXPECTING IT IN THE FAR EAST OF THE CWA.
LIGHTNING HAS ENDED. SO FAR SOME RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND AN INCH
WITH THIS RAIN BUT NO WATER PROBLEMS. RIVERS HAVE STOPPED FALLING
OR RISEN SLIGHTLY. FORECASTED RIVER LEVELS WERE LOWERED TO BELOW
CAUTION STAGE.

DURING THE DAY SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH A SHORT WAVE. BEST CHANCE
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
PRODUCING SOME CAPE. STILL SOME SHEAR BUT NOT AS MUCH AT LOW
LEVELS AS LATE MONDAY. LIS AND SHOWALTERS DROP TO AROUND ZERO.
SPC HAS THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER WHICH THE SOUNDINGS SUPPORT.
ADDED A SCHC OF THUNDER TO THE CHC/LIKELY RAIN SHOWERS. WITH THE
COLDER AIR PWATS BELOW HALF AN INCH. RAINFALL POTENTIAL AND
AMOUNTS WILL BE LOW. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH
WITH ISOLATED HALF INCH AMOUNTS IN TSTORMS. SEVERE THREAT VERY LOW
WITH LOW CAPE AND LITTLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR. DEEP SHEAR DECENT WITH
ANOTHER UL JET MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
4 AM UPDATE...

A LARGE STACKED LOW BETWEEN MICHIGAN AND HUDSON BAY MOVES
SOUTHEAST TO MAINE THE REST OF THE WEEK. COLD AIR ADVECTION OCCURS
AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW TAKES OVER. TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE COLD
ENOUGH AS EARLY AS TONIGHT FOR RAIN TO MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW.
WITH THE WARM GROUND IT WILL TAKE A STEADY SNOW SHOWER TO
ACCUMULATE. FOR NOW THIS COULD HAPPEN LATE WED NGT AND LATE THU
NGT WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND FREEZING. WITH SHOWERS MOSTLY LIGHT
THIS PERIOD ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE ONLY A FEW TENTHS AT
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

SHOWER POTENTIAL LOOKS BEST WED WITH ANOTHER WAVE AND COLD FRONT
GOING THROUGH. RAINFALL LESS THAN HALF AN INCH. AFTER THAT FORCING
WEAK.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE LONG RANGE PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
OVER EASTERN CANADA AND DEEP NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST U.S. SOME DIFFERENCES ARE SEEN BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS
STARTING AS EARLY AS THE SATURDAY... WITH THE ECMWF SHOWING THE
UPPER LOW SHIFTING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A SYSTEM PROGRESSING
EAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. MEANWHILE THE GFS IS NOT
PROGRESSIVE AT ALL SHOWING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER
QUEBEC THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ECMWF FORECAST WOULD NOT BE QUITE
AS COOL AS THE GFS ALTHOUGH BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE GFS FORECAST WOULD BE COLD ENOUGH FOR
SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE THE
ECMWF WOULD BE MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THIS TIME DO NOT
SEE ENOUGH MODEL CONSENSUS TO SUPPORT ANY REAL CHANGES TO OUR
ONGOING FORECAST... AND HAVE KEPT MAINLY 20-40 POPS THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL... SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AND SCATTERED RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS DURING THE OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT ARE STILL PUSHING EAST
OVER CENTRAL NY AND NORTHEAST PA AND LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAVE
STARTED TO DIMINISH. FOR THE MOST PART... SHOWERS ARE VFR WITH
MVFR VISBYS. EXPECT A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CIGS OVER KITH... KELM...
AND KBGM UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH. RAIN SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED
TO LINGER BEHIND THE FROPA THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...
THEN A BREAK IN ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
RAIN SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE THUNDER ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES UNSTABLE AGAIN.
DECIDED TO NOT MENTION TSRA IN TAF ATTM AS CONFIDENCE IS NOT THERE
ON TIMING.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SHORTLY AFTER 14Z THIS MORNING AND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE WESTERLY AND BREEZY THROUGH SUNSET. WINDS WILL
THEN BECOME LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY.

.OUTLOOK...

TUE NIGHT-SAT...UNSETTLED PATTERN. RESTRICTIONS IN -SHRA, LOW
CLOUDS...ESP MON NGT.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NY...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TAC
NEAR TERM...TAC
SHORT TERM...TAC
LONG TERM...MSE
AVIATION...KAH


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