Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID

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FXUS65 KBOI 210908
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
308 AM MDT TUE APR 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...CENTER OF DRY AIRMASS
ON WATER VAPOR OVER OREGON/SW ID BORDER THIS MORNING HAS WARMER
SINKING AIR UNDER IT SO HIGHS WILL BE ABOUT 3F DEGREES WARMER
THAN MONDAY. SW FLOW ALONG THE OREGON COAST WILL SPREAD MID LAYER
MOISTURE INLAND WITH A SMALL THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS FROM STEENS
MTN W AND N THROUGH THE EVENING. EAST OF IDAHO CITY...FORECAST
MOISTURE/QPF IN NAM AGAIN IS EXPECTED TO STAY E OF OUR AREA AGAIN
TODAY...CLOSER TO THE MTNS AROUND SUN VALLEY AWAY FROM SUBSIDENCE
CENTER NEAR THE ORE-IDA BORDER.

WINDS SHIFTING TO NW 10-20 MPH ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SE OREGON
TONIGHT AS A PACIFIC-ORIGIN COLD FRONT SPREADS TO THE ORE-IDA
BORDER ABOUT SUNRISE NEAR 7AM WED. BEST MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT
EJECTS NNE BEHIND THE FRONT SO INCREASING WIND ...GUSTS AROUND 30
MPH... AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE MAIN WX STORY
ACROSS OREGON TO AROUND BOISE WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON COLD
FRONTAL TIMING STILL ALLOWS FOR HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE W
MAGIC VALLEY. MOISTURE IN THE SW FLOW ALOFT STILL SUPPORTS A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MAINLY THE MTNS OF
CENTRAL TO S-CENTRAL IDAHO WED. AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER AIR
ENERGY/LOW CENTER CONTINUES TO LIFT NE AWAY FROM THE AREA...AND
SPLIT FLOW DEVELOPS OVER SRN IDAHO.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EXPECT SPLIT FLOW
OVER THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY WITH SYSTEMS PASSING TO
THE NORTH AND SOUTH. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
AS DYNAMICS WILL BE LIMITED. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT IN THE
FORECAST MODELS WITH A WEAK TROUGH AND COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON
FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWN TO SPLIT AS IT CROSSES THE FORECAST
AREA BUT SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ACROSS THE AREA. LATEST MODELS SPLIT ON THE AMPLIFICATION OF THE
RIDGE AND UP STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT WEAK. 00Z
ECMWF AMPLIFIES UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE ENTIRE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BY
MONDAY FOR WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. 00Z GFS SHOWS LESS AMPLIFICATION
OF THE RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING THROUGH
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY. WILL WAIT FOR BETTER MODEL
CONTINUITY BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW NORMAL ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY THEN ABOVE NEAR NORMAL ON SUNDAY.MONDAY...


&&

.AVIATION...


&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

SHORT TERM...VM
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION.....JS


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