Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT

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FXUS65 KBYZ 030945
AFDBYZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
345 AM MDT SUN MAY 3 2015

.SHORT TERM...VALID FOR TDY AND MON...

QUIET END TO THE WEEKEND EXPECTED AS A WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL
CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SATELLITE SHOWING AN AREA
OF CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE
WITH CLEARING JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO
MOVE EAST ALLOWING FOR PARTLY SUNNY SKIES TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY. RADAR HAS BEEN SHOWING SOME RETURNS FROM ABOUT BIG
HORN COUNTY EAST TO THE DAKOTAS. HOWEVER...BELIEVE MOST IF NOT ALL
OF THIS IS VIRGA AS TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE QUITE HIGH
AND CLOUD BASES ARE AROUND 11K FEET. TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE A
GOOD 10 DEGREES COOLER AS A RESULT OF THE FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH
LAST EVENING. MOST AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE 60S WHICH IS NORMAL
FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

AN UPPER LOW AND TROUGH APPROACH THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST LATE
IN THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW TO BUCKLE SOMEWHAT
RESULTING IN WEAK RIDGING BUILDING ACROSS OUR AREA...AS WELL AS A
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GREAT BASIN AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BRINGING
A SLIGHT SHOWER AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE TO OUR FAR
WESTERN AREAS WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH
AND BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES EAST...THE BETTER SHOWER CHANCES WILL SHIFT ACROSS OUR
SOUTHEAST COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL WARM
BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL WITH READINGS IN THE 70S...EXCEPT FOR SOME
60S OUT TOWARD THE DAKOTA BORDERS. HOOLEY

.LONG TERM...VALID FOR TUE...WED...THU...FRI...SAT...

MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THE SAME GENERAL PATTERN IN THE
LONG TERM...WETTER AND COOLER. TUESDAY THE LOW OVER THE PACIFIC
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE ALONG THE COAST AS IT DIGS SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA. THE FLOW WILL GENERALLY
BE UNSETTLED AS SEVERAL IMPULSES OF ENERGY MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW.
THIS WILL GIVE THE AREA A SHOT AT RAIN...BUT MOSTLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS. THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL COME TOWARDS THE WEEKEND
AS THE LOW IN THE GREAT BASIN LIFTS INTO WYOMING. THIS WILL BRING
THE GREATEST ENERGY MOVING THROUGH COINCIDENT WITH SOME DECENT
FORCING. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME TIMING AND PLACEMENT ISSUES
BETWEEN THE MODELS WITH THE PRECIP...SO HAVE NOT GOTTEN TO
SPECIFIC. WITH THE INCREASE MOISTURE AND CLOUDINESS...CONTINUE TO
EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR NORMAL...GENERALLY IN THE 60S FOR
HIGHS. REIMER

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SOME SHOWERS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH LOCALIZED
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION. REIMER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS...

    TDY MON     TUE     WED     THU     FRI     SAT
-------------------------------------------------------
BIL 065 043/076 048/076 047/063 043/053 038/059 042/059
    1/B 11/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    44/W    55/W
LVM 066 037/074 043/075 041/060 038/050 033/053 036/059
    1/B 12/T    23/T    44/T    45/W    54/W    55/W
HDN 067 043/078 045/079 047/065 041/053 035/061 041/064
    1/B 21/B    22/T    43/T    44/W    34/W    55/W
MLS 066 043/073 048/077 050/066 042/054 037/060 042/062
    0/B 11/B    12/T    43/T    33/W    33/W    34/W
4BQ 066 043/070 046/075 049/064 043/054 035/057 041/059
    1/B 32/W    12/T    44/T    43/W    33/W    45/W
BHK 063 038/068 043/070 049/061 041/055 033/056 038/059
    1/B 12/W    11/N    44/T    43/W    22/W    44/W
SHR 065 041/070 042/073 045/061 040/053 033/056 038/054
    2/T 32/T    23/T    44/T    44/W    45/W    67/W

&&

.BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$
WEATHER.GOV/BILLINGS


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