Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 192223
AFDCAR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME
623 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY. SECONDARY LOW PRESSURE
WILL FORM ALONG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUESDAY. AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL KEEP UNSETTLED
CONDITIONS OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
6 PM UPDATE. MINOR ADJUSTMENT TO HRLY TEMPS...OTHERWISE PREVIOUS
FORECAST ON TRACK.

HIGH PRESSURE CURRENTLY OVER THE REGION WILL MOVE TO THE EAST
TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY.
EXPECT CLOUDS TO INCREASE IN THE MORNING IN WESTERN AREAS AND
DURING THE AFTERNOON MONDAY IN THE EAST. WILL BLEND THE NAM... GFS
AND ECMWF FOR POPS... SKY AND QPF. WILL USE THE MOSG25 FOR WINDS.
FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE HAVE USED THE BIAS CORRECTED ALL BLEND AND
THE BIAS CORRECTED RAW BLEND FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE BASE ON
VERIFICATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODELS CONT TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT WITH THE COMPLEX SFC AND
UPPER LOW APCHG THE FA FROM THE GREAT LKS AND S CNTRL CAN MON NGT
AND TUE. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM...A MDTLY STRONG SE LLVL JETS SETS
UP ACROSS THE REGION LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. THIS FEATURE WILL HELP
ADVCT ATLC MOISTURE INTO THE FA AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW...SPCLY VERY
LATE MON NGT THRU TUE. ATTM...THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MDT TO HVY
RNFL WILL BE ALG AND JUST SE OF THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AND THE
DONEAST COAST WHERE LCLY UPWARDS OF 1.50 INCHES OF RNFL IS
POSSIBLE....WITH LESSER TOTALS N AND E. ORGANIZED RNFL WILL TAPER
TO SCT SHWRS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE FA OVRNGT TUE INTO ERLY WED
MORN WITH THE PASSAGE OF A WARM OCCLUSION. ANOTHER CONCERN WILL BE
WIND SPEEDS SPCLY ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST ON TUE. WITH A SE SFC
WIND TRAJECTORY SLIGHTLY CROSSING A MORE S TO N LLVL JET AXIS ALF
IN THE 925-850 MB LAYER...MAX WIND GUSTS SHOULD MSLY REMAIN BLO
THE WIND ADV THRESHOLD OF 45 MPH...BUT COULD REACH 40 MPH OVER
OPEN...HIER TRRN ALG THE COAST.

THIS WILL LEAVE A BETTER DEFINED BREAK IN RNFL FOR WED MORN INTO
ERLY AFTN THEN INDICATED BY MODELS YSTDY ATTM...SO WE WERE ABLE TO
LOWER POPS FOR THIS PTN OF THE DAY. ANOTHER S/WV ROTATING ARND A
LARGE MID LVL VORTEX OVR THE GREAT LKS FROM SW TO NE ACROSS THE
FA LATR WED AFTN WILL LIKELY RESULT IN A ROUND OF MI/LATE AFTN
SHWRS MSLY FOR CNTRL AND SPCLY NRN PTNS OF THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
SUNSHINE WILL HELP DESTABLIZE THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE FOR THESE
SHWRS.

TEMPS ALF LOOK A BIT MILDER FOR MON NGT INTO TUE...SO ONLY
HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS ABV 1500 FT MSL MAY SEE WET SN MIX WITH
RN...WITH LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATION. OTHERWISE...HI TEMPS SHOULD
RECOVER INTO THE 40S BY TUE AFTN. AFT FAIRLY MILD LOWS TUE NGT...
HI TEMPS WED AFTN LOOK TO RECOVER INTO THE 50S AT MOST LCTNS
BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF MID TO LATE AFTN SHWRS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LOW FROM THE GREAT LKS MIGRATING EWRD OVR THE FA...
UNSELTTED COOL CONDITIONS WITH PERIODIC RNFL/SHWRS CAN BE XPCTED
WED NGT THRU SAT. THE BEXT DEFINED POTENTIAL OF FAIRLY SIG RNFL
ACROSS THE FA WILL BE LATE WED NGT INTO THU AS A S/WV TIED CLOSER
TO THE UPPER LOW...ROTATES SSW TO NNE OVR THE FA. OTHERWISE...TMG
OF RNFL AFTWRDS BECOMES LESS CERTAIN...BUT WE DID INDICATE A
DIURNAL HIGHER VS NOCTURNAL LOWER CYCLE OF POPS THU NGT THRU SAT.
WITH COLDER AIR ARRIVING ALF BEGINNING THU NGT AND THEN CONTG INTO
SAT. HIER TRRN LCTNS WILL HAVE A BETTER CHC FOR SN TO MIX WITH ANY
SHWRS LATE AT NGT INTO ERLY MORN HRS. SFC TEMPS WARMING AT LEAST
INTO THE 40S FRI AND SAT AFTN WILL QUICKLY CHG ANY SN BACK TO RN
OVER ANY XCPT HIGHEST TRRN LCTNS BY LATE MORN.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY.

SHORT TO LONG TERM: CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY DROP TO MVFR WITH CLD
CVR AND VSBYS WITH RN OVR OUR TAF SITES MON NIGHT THEN IFR BY TUE
MORN AND REMAIN IFR IN RAIN INTO TUESDAY EVE. CONDITIONS MAY
IMPROVE TO MVFR DOWNEAST TUESDAY NIGHT THEN MVFR TO VFR ON
WEDNESDAY...WHILE NRN TAF SITES IMPROVE TO MVFR ON WED. ALL SITES
LIKELY MVFR LATE WED NGT INTO THU WITH ANOTHER PD OF RNFL...THEN
DOWNEAST SITES SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FOR THU NGT AND FRI WHILE NRN
TAF SITES CONT MSLY MVFR CLGS.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: HAVE USED THE NAM12 FOR SUSTAINED WINDS. FOR WAVES:
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM TONIGHT COMPOSED OF LONG PERIOD WAVE FROM THE
SOUTHWEST (2 FEET/8 SECONDS). SOUTHEAST WIND WAVE WILL BECOME
PRIMARY WAVE SYSTEM MONDAY AS WINDS INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHEAST.

SHORT TERM: WE CONVERTED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WRNG FOR OVRNGT
MON NGT INTO TUE...WITH CONDITIONS SUBSIDING TO SCA TUE NGT INTO
WED. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY CONT INTO THU AS ANOTHER SFC LOW
TRACKS JUST W OF THE WATERS...WITH WINDS AND SEAS SLOWLY SUBSIDING
TO BLO SCA BY THE WEEKEND. KEPT CLOSE TO WW3 WV GUIDANCE FOR WV
HTS THIS FCST UPDATE.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
HAVE SEEN MORE ICE MOVEMENT ALONG THE ALLAGASH, SAINT JOHN, AND
AROOSTOOK RIVERS TODAY. FIRST AND FOREMOST, THE RIVER FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE AROOSTOOK RIVER AT WASHBURN. THE
RIVER GAGE STILL REMAINS WELL ABOVE FLOOD STAGE THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WE HAVE HAD REPORTS THAT THE ICE JAM UPSTREAM OF THE GAGE
WAS MOVING EARLIER THIS AFTERNOON. IT WAS ALSO REPORTED THAT THE
GARDNER CREEK ROAD IN WASHBURN WAS STILL FLOODED WITH A SIGNFICANT
AMOUNT OF WATER. HOWEVER, WITH THE ICE MOVING, THIS MAY OR MAY NOT
CHANGE AS WE HEAD INTO EVENING.

ELSEWHERE ON THE AROOSTOOK, THERE WAS ALSO A SMALLER JAM NEAR
CROUSEVILLE. IT IS UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME IF THIS JAM HAS MOVED.
FURTHER DOWNSTREAM, ICE HAD FLUSHED OVER THE CARIBOU DAM AND WAS
MOVING DOWN TO FORT FAIRFIELD. AN NWS EMPLOYEE REPORTED THAT THE
ICE JAM BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD AND TINKER DAM WAS MOVING EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON. WITH THIS ICE JAM MOVING, IT IS HOPED THAT THE ICE
FROM CARIBOU DAM TO FORT FAIRFIELD WILL BE ABLE TO MOVE THROUGH
TINKER DAM WITH NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES. RIVERSIDE AVENUE IN FORT
FAIRFIELD WAS STILL CLOSED AS OF 2 PM.

ON THE SAINT JOHN, MUCH OF THE ICE THAT WAS JAMMED IN THE ST
FRANCIS AREA FLUSHED OUT EARLY TODAY, ALONG WITH THE ICE THAT
STRETCHED FROM GRAND ISLE TO HAMLIN. AN NWS EMPLOYEE AND A FOREST
SERVICE RANGER BOTH REPORTED THAT ICE WAS FLUSHING OUT OF THE
ALLAGASH, AND THIS WAS EVERY EVIDENT ON THE USGS RIVER GAGE ON
THAT WATERWAY. THE ICE WAS FLOWING WELL AND WILL HOPEFULLY MOVE
DOWNSTREAM WITH NO ISSUES.

SUDDEN RIVER RISES AND FLOODING WITH LITTLE TO NO WARNING WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE AS LONG AS THERE IS ICE IN THE RIVERS.
PERSONS ALONG THESE RIVERS NEED TO REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING RIVER CONDITIONS UNTIL THE ICE IS TOTALLY FLUSHED OUT.

OF ADDED CONCERN IS THE WIDESPREAD RAIN EVENT FORECAST MONDAY
EVENING INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST...1.00 TO 1.50 INCHES
OF RAIN...IS POSSIBLE OVR THE CNTRL ME HIGHLANDS AREA... WHICH
COULD ADD TO HIGH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATQUIS AND PENOBSCOT RVR
BASINS ALREADY HIGH DUE TO PRIOR SNOW MELT AND ICE MOVEMENT.
ATTM...THE ADDITION OF THESE RN AMOUNTS OVR THESE RVRS DO NOT
QUITE BRING RVR LVS TO FLOOD STAGE AT OUR RVR FCST POINTS...BUT WE
WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS WITH FCST RNFL OVR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF UPDATES...SO A LMTD AREA FLOOD WATCH CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVR
PTNS OF THE FA ADJACENT TO CNTRL ME HIGHLAND LATE MON NGT INTO TUE
NGT.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SITUATION FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
LATE MONDAY NIGHT. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE HIGH AND WITH A
STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY WIND AND STORM SURGE OF AROUND 1 FT AS THE
SEAS BUILD THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERWASH AND
PERHAPS COASTAL FLOODING.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR MEZ029-030.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 11 PM MONDAY TO 6 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ050>052.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...NORTON/MIGNONE
SHORT TERM...VJN
LONG TERM...VJN
AVIATION...MIGNONE/VJN
MARINE...MIGNONE/VJN
HYDROLOGY...HASTINGS
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...


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