Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX

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FXUS64 KCRP 051104 AAA
AFDCRP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
604 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015

.DISCUSSION...DID NOT REALIZE THAT CALHOUN COUNTY WAS NOT IN THE
RIP CURRENT RISK...SO INCLUDED THEM. IT IS A BORDERLINE HIGH
RISK...BUT PREFER TO ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION. UPDATES SENT. SEE
12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

&&

.AVIATION...TOOK SOME TIME BUT MVFR CIGS FINALLY IN ALL BUT KVCT
AREA...WHICH MAY NOT SEE THEM (MAY PUT IN A TEMPO THERE).
OTHERWISE...06Z FORECAST PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH VFR CONDTIONS
DEVELOPING LATER THIS MORNING THEN MVFR RETURNING TONIGHT...LATE
IF AT ALL AT KVCT. AGAIN...LOOKS PRIME FOR A PERSISTENCE FORECAST
FOR THE TERMINALS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT TUE MAY 5 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS
THE POP/RAIN CHANCE FORECAST TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME UPPER
LEVEL SUPPORT/Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE TODAY BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE
NORTH. MOISTURE ADVECTION IS CONFINED TO THE INLAND AREAS.
CONFIDENCE IN CONVECTION TODAY AND TONIGHT IS NOT VERY HIGH...WITH
THE UPPER SUPPORT WEAK AND MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND MODERATE WINDS
WILL INHIBIT DEEP CONVECTION BY DAYTIME HEATING. THUS...WILL ONLY
GO WITH 20 POPS AT BEST EXCEPT OVER THE NORTHWEST CLOSEST TO THE
UPPER SUPPORT AND WHERE BEST AFTERNOON AND EVENING MOISTURE
ADVECTION WILL RESIDE. APPEARS THAT AN MCS MAY MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA TONIGHT...BUT SOME COULD GET INTO THE NORTHERN-MOST PORTIONS
OF THE CWFA OVERNIGHT. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN THE 20 POPS FOR THESE
AREAS. FOR WEDNESDAY...MAY SEE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN
ALTHOUGH BEST PART OF MID LEVEL THETA-E RIDGE WILL MOVE NORTH
AND/OR OUT OF CWFA. SINCE WE HAVE BEEN GOING WITH 20 POPS (AND
SURROUNDING OFFICES CONTINUE TO DO THE SAME...COVERAGE MAY BE LESS
BUT MOISTURE IS DEFINITELY THERE). BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES
WARM TODAY AND WEDNESDAY...THUS AM EXPECTING JUST A DEGREE OR SO
INCREASE IN TEMPERATURES TODAY MOST AREAS (AND HOPEFULLY A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER NEAR THE RIO GRANDE WHERE LAREDO BARELY GOT INTO
THE 80S...DO NOT EXPECT CLOUDS TO REMAIN AS MUCH TODAY GIVEN MID
LEVEL WINDS SUPPLYING SOME DRYING). WARM AND HUMID TONIGHT...WITH
ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO INCREASE IN MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES FOR
WEDNESDAY.

MARINE (TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA
BUT COULD BE CLOSE. DRIER MID LEVEL AIR STILL RESIDES OUT IN THE
GULF...SO CONVECTION STILL EXPECTED TO BE VERY ISOLATED AT BEST
(AND IF ANY LIKELY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN AREAS). WINDS MAYBE A
BIT LESS ON WEDNESDAY...BUT STILL NEAR THE SCEC RANGE FOR THE
SOUTHERN BAYS/NEARSHORE.

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...THROUGH THE EXTENDED
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC TO CHC OF CONVECTION EACH DAY DUE TO A SERIES
OF DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODELS PROG DEEPER MOISTURE
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE WED NIGHT/THU ALONG WITH A SHORT WAVE. HOWEVER
A WEAK UPPER JET WILL NOT BE QUITE IN A FAVORABLE POSITION.
THEREFORE KEPT POPS 20-30 RANGE WITH THE HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE NW
ON THU. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRI WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED
SHORT WAVE. THE GFS PROGS HIGHER QPF VALUES ACROSS THE W FRI...BUT
ECMWF HAS THE HIGHER QPF/DYNAMICS MUCH FARTHER N. THUS...KEPT
SIMILAR POPS FOR FRI AND AGAIN SAT. THE SUPERBLEND OUTPUT WENT WITH
VERY HIGH POPS BY SUN AND MON BUT WITH DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS
ON TIMING OF SHORT WAVES AND AMOUNT OF MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...HAVE
LOWERED POPS BUT DID KEEP THEM IN THE CHC CATEGORY. TEMPS THROUGH
THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN VERY WARM TO HOT WITH HUMID CONDITIONS.
ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BREEZY EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS S TX
WITH GENERALLY A MOD FLOW ACROSS THE WATERS. SPEEDS MAY APPROACH SCA
OVER THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
CORPUS CHRISTI    84  73  85  74  85  /  10  10  10  10  20
VICTORIA          84  72  86  72  85  /  20  20  10  10  20
LAREDO            87  73  90  72  91  /  20  10  20  20  20
ALICE             88  72  89  72  89  /  20  10  10  10  20
ROCKPORT          84  74  84  74  82  /  20  10  10  10  10
COTULLA           86  71  88  71  88  /  30  20  20  20  30
KINGSVILLE        86  73  87  74  88  /  10  10  10  10  20
NAVY CORPUS       83  74  84  75  83  /  10  10  10  10  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: ARANSAS...CALHOUN...KLEBERG...NUECES.

GM...NONE.

&&

$$

GW/86...AVIATION


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