Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS State College, PA

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FXUS61 KCTP 181358
AFDCTP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
958 AM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN OUT OF NEW YORK AND MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL PRECEDE A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...FOLLOWED BY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE MONDAY AND EARLY MONDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE STATE. A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL THEN SET UP OVER UPPER
ONTARIO AND QUEBEC FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED ALONG THE MASON DIXON LINE WILL DRIFT EAST
AND OFF THE MID ATL COAST THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
AND JUST SOME THIN CIRRUS FOR THE BULK OF TODAY. AREAS OF HIGH
BASED CU WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE NRN MTNS THIS AFTERNOON AS A
SECONDARY...DRY CFRONT OVER THE LOWER GLAKES SWEEPS QUICKLY TO THE
SE.

THE PRIMARY EFFECT FROM THIS COLD FRONT WILL BE AN INCREASE IN
THE WINDS FROM THE WNW. DRY FRONTS ARE WINDY FRONTS. GUSTS COULD
BE 25-30 MPH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE NORTH
AND EAST OF KIPT. SEE FIRE WX SECTION FOR WHY THIS IS IMPORTANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
CLEAR TONIGHT WITH UPPER RIDGE CRESTING OVERHEAD IN THE MORNING.
RAIN WILL SPREAD INTO WRN PA IN THE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THE RAIN
WILL EVENTUALLY COVER ALL OF CENTRAL PA AROUND MIDNIGHT BEFORE
SLIDING TO THE EAST CLOSE TO SUNRISE. STRONG LLVL SERLY FLOW COULD
MAKE IT GUSTY AS THE RAIN MOVES IN...AND WILL SUPPLY PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN THE FORM OF 1-1.5INCH PWATS. 0.5 TO 1.0 INCH RAINFALL
WILL MAKE SOME RISES ON STREAMS...BUT RIVER RESPONSE LOOKS TO BE
GENERALLY MINOR.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WILL PROBABLY BE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE ACTION MONDAY MORNING AS WE
GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR. A ROUND OF SHOWERS THEN PUSHES THROUGH
WITH COLD FRONT LATER MON INTO MON NIGHT. QPF THROUGH THE WHOLE
EVENT LOOKS TO BE AROUND OR JUST OVER AN INCH IN THE SRN
TIER. MU CAPES IN THE 800-1200J/KG RANGE WILL LIKELY ALLOW TSRA
TO FORM. IF TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER HANGS AROUND THROUGH THE
MORNING/EARLY AFTN...TSRA WILL BE QUELLED OR AT LEAST MUCH LESS
WIDESPREAD THAN CURRENT THINKING.

BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MIDWEEK...THE UPPER LOW HANGS AROUND S
CANADA/NEW ENGLAND FOR SEVERAL DAYS KEEPING FAIRLY BRISK W/NW FLOW
ACROSS PA. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY STREAM OF COOLER AIR AS TEMPS
SLOWLY SLIP A BIT LOWER EACH DAY WITH BELOW NORMAL READINGS FOR A
SEVERAL DAY PERIOD LINGERING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. PROXIMITY OF UPPER
LOW WILL ALSO KEEP MENTION OF SCT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST...
MAINLY DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
RESULTING IN GUSTY NW WINDS DURING THE AFTN ACROSS THE NE HALF OF
THE STATE...WHERE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORT GUSTS TO AOA 20KTS.
WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHT ACROSS THE S/W AIRSPACE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SUB-VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN...SOME OF WHICH MAY BE
HEAVY. A PERIOD OF LLWS IS ALSO LKLY SUNDAY NIGHT WITH A STRONG
SOUTHERLY 50+KT LLJ.

OUTLOOK...

MON...SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH IFR TO MVFR RESTRICTIONS LKLY.

TUE-WED...NO SIG WX EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
IT WILL BE MILD AND DRY TODAY...WITH A GUSTY BUT DRY COLD FRONT
PRESSING DOWN FROM NEW YORK DURING THE MIDDLE TO LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE PICKING UP ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE AFTERNOON
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DIP INTO THE 25 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE OVER
ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA. DRYING FINE FUELS AND GUSTY WINDS MEET THE
RED FLAG WARNING CRITERIA. WILL KEEP THE RFW TO JUST THIS
AFTERNOON SINCE WE WILL BE IN FOR JUST ONE AFTERNOON OF REALLY LOW
RH/S AND GUSTY WIND. WHILE IT MAY BE GUSTY ON SUNDAY...WE WILL SEE
AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S/SE AND A STEADY MODERATE RAIN
WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ006-011-
012-018-019-025>028-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-056>059-063.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LAMBERT
NEAR TERM...LAMBERT
SHORT TERM...LAMBERT/DANGELO
LONG TERM...RXR
AVIATION...FITZGERALD/LAMBERT
FIRE WEATHER...LAMBERT/DANGELO



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