Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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FXUS63 KDDC 020528
AFDDDC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1228 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

...UPDATED AVIATION SECTION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1212 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

TONIGHT:

CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS HAS DIMINISHED. THE CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS OKLAHOMA HAS IMPEDED FROM MOISTURE COMING BACK TO KANSAS.
THE NET RESULT IS MUCH LOWER INSTABILITY. THINK SOME HIGH BASED SHOWERS
COULD DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE HIGHWAY 83 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY
MIGHT STRENGTHEN A BIT AS IT HEADS EAST INTO BETTER (READ: MARGINAL)
MOISTURE. FORECAST DCAPE IS STILL MODERATE VIA A MIXED SOUNDING PROFILE
AND THINK SOME DOWNDRAFTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. PROBABLY BE MORE DRY MICROBURSTS
THEN WET, SINCE MOISTURE HAS BACKED OFF. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.
REDUCED POPS TO MAINLY THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS LIKELY POPS BY I-70 WHERE THE COLD FRONT
IS AND BETTER LIFT COMES INTO THE CONVECTIVE PICTURE. WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED
IF MOST AREAS WERE DRY AND DID NOT EXPERIENCE ANY STORMS. A COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH COOLER MINIMUMS EXPECTED - 40S
TO A FEW LOW 50S SOUTHEAST.

TOMORROW:

A COOLER DAY IS EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. COOLER LOW LEVEL
AIR WILL SPREAD IN FROM THE EAST. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RETURN BY EVENING.
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE
OF THE SHORT TERM DOMAIN.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 221 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING, A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES INTO WESTERN KANSAS WITH A VERY STRONG UPPER JET OF NEAR
150KT. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BY
MORNING. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO MIX IN WITH THE RAIN ACROSS FAR
WESTERN KANSAS FROM JOHNSON CITY TO NEAR GARDEN CITY AND WAKEENEY
TOWARDS MORNING AS 850MB TEMPS GET CLOSE TO ZERO CELSIUS. NOT
EXPECTING ANY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE FROM .01 TO .10 INCHES EXPECTED. AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES
EAST BY AFTERNOON THE PRECIP WILL END AND SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY
CLOUDY. LOWS ON FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 30S FAR WEST
AND NORTHWEST TO 40 TO 45 OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. HIGHS ON FRIDAY
WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE WITH MID TO UPPER 50S.

FOR SATURDAY INTO NEXT TUESDAY, A DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST AS
SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE
TROUGH SCHEDULED AROUND WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL PLAINS. HIGHS WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S SATURDAY, MID TO UPPER 70S ON SUNDAY, AROUND 80
ON MONDAY, MID TO UPPER 70S TUESDAY, AND COOLER 60S ON WEDNESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT AND A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
BE MILD IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1225 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL WITH A FEW LOW CLOUDS AOA020 FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND DECREASING HIGH CLOUDS. STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS AROUND 25 KNOTS WILL BE FELT BEHIND A COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT, DECREASING
TO AROUND 12 KNOTS BY SUNRISE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  40  57  34  67 /  30  20   0   0
GCK  37  56  33  67 /  40  30   0   0
EHA  37  54  35  67 /  20  20   0   0
LBL  40  56  35  67 /  20  20   0   0
HYS  37  58  32  68 /  40  30   0   0
P28  45  60  35  67 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SUGDEN
LONG TERM...KRUSE
AVIATION...HOVORKA_42


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