Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD

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FXUS63 KFSD 270331
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
1031 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

SURFACE RIDGE NOSING FROM GREAT LAKES BACK INTO THE CWA AND STRONG
RIDGE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN QUIET CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. DRY AIR
AND DIMINISHING WINDS TONIGHT WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR SOME TEMPS IN
LOWER ELEVATIONS TO DIP TOWARD LOWER TO MID 30S...AND LIKELY TO FIND
A BIT OF PATCHY FROST. UNLIKELY TO GET ANY APPRECIABLE TIME WITH
TEMPS NEAR FREEZING.  IF ANYTHING...GRADIENT SURFACE AND ALOFT IS
EVEN WEAKER ON MONDAY...SO EXPECT FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS FOR SPRINGTIME
STANDARDS...WITH MIXING OF NORTHEAST WINDS AND LOWEST DEWPOINTS
ALONG AND EAST OF WEAKENING RIDGE AXIS ALONG AND EAST OF A TRACY TO
SIOUX FALLS TO YANKTON. DRY AIR AGAIN SUGGESTS EXPANDING DIURNAL
RANGE...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...WITH ONLY A FEW
HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST IN THE AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 249 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...AND CLIPS THE NORTHEAST FORECAST
AROUND MIDDAY. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW TRENDING TOWARDS
STALLING THE WAVE ALONG OUR EASTERN BORDER AS IT SLOWLY DIPS
SOUTHWARD AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO THE CUT OFF LOW DRIFTING ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALSO BECOMES
STALLED OVER THE AREA BUT WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN LIGHT WITH
SOME SCATTERED MID AND HIGH CLOUDS LINGERING THROUGH THE DAY. THIS
SYSTEM STILL APPEARS TO BE QUITE MOISTURE STARVED...WITH THE
STRONGER DYNAMICS REMAINING WELL NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE A
FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES MAY BE POSSIBLE NEAR HIGHWAY 14 AND ACROSS OUR
EASTERN COUNTIES...WILL LEAVE OUT ANY MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION.
HIGHS ON TUESDAY WILL BE QUITE PLEASANT IN THE LOW TO MID 70S.
AGAIN...HEDGED A BIT TOWARDS THE WARMER BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE.

UPPER RIDGE STRENGTHENS OVER THE PLAINS MID WEEK...BRINGING A
CONTINUATION OF PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS AS SOUTHERLY WINDS
REBOUND. NOT EXPECTING MUCH OF ANY MOISTURE RETURN DURING THIS
PERIOD AND WITH DECENT MIXING POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED SUIT IN TRENDING
LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS. WITH TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE 70S WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...AFTERNOON HUMIDITY SHOULD DROP TO AROUND 25 TO 30
PERCENT. WHILE WINDS WINDS DO NOT LOOK PARTICULARLY STRONG...THEY
WILL BE SOMEWHAT BREEZY...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS TIME FRAME FOR
POSSIBLE FIRE DANGER CONCERNS.

LATER IN THE WEEK...THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES MORE UNCERTAIN AS
THE MODELS BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN THE RIDGE HEADING TOWARDS A MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN. THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THE WAVES...AND
THE RESULTING UPPER FLOW DIFFERS BETWEEN EACH MODEL. AS A
RESULT...THE ALLBLEND POPS WERE A SMATTERING OF LOW POPS ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY WHICH WERE REMOVED DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY. A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ARRIVES ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY
AS BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS SHOW MUCH GREATER MOISTURE RETURN AHEAD OF
SHORT WAVE ACTIVITY. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 70S AND LOWER 80S THIS
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1030 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CHAPMAN
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...DUX


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