Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Hastings, NE

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FXUS63 KGID 202314
AFDGID

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
614 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

ALTHOUGH IT IS NOT A "GUARANTEE" TO STAY COMPLETELY DRY OVER
EVERY SQUARE INCH OF THE CWA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHAT
LITTLE RISK THAT EXISTS FOR LIGHT SPRINKLES/SHOWERS MAINLY WITHIN
FAR SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT AND NORTHERN ZONES TUESDAY AFTERNOON
HAS BEEN DEEMED UNWORTHY OF AN OFFICIAL FORECAST MENTION. IN OTHER
WORDS...WAS NOT WILLING TO "RUIN" THE GOING DRY FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. OTHERWISE...FOLLOWING A CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT THAT MAY EVEN
FEATURE SOME LIMITED FROST IN SOME SPOTS...HIGH TEMPS TUESDAY ARE
EXPECTED TO GENERALLY CLIMB 6-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY.
ALTHOUGH TUESDAY WILL NOT BE AS WINDY AS TODAY (ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN 1/2 OF THE CWA)...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY IN
CENTRAL/NORTHERN COUNTIES AND ACTUALLY RAISED THESE WIND SPEEDS
ABOUT 5 MPH FROM BEFORE.

BEFORE DIVING INTO THE FORECAST DETAILS...WANT TO ADDRESS THE TWO
TOPICS OF FIRE WEATHER AND FROST/FREEZE MENTION:

1) FIRE WEATHER: DESPITE A FORECASTED COMBO OF LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY/GUSTY WINDS FOR TUESDAY...RECENT RAINFALL HAS
TEMPERED THE OVERALL FIRE WEATHER THREAT ENOUGH THAT AT LEAST IN
THE SHORT TERM WE WILL NOT BE HIGHLIGHTING FIRE DANGER IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS DECISION
PLEASE REFER TO THE SEPARATE FIRE WEATHER SECTION BELOW.

2) FROST/FREEZE: DESPITE THE FACT THAT FORECASTED LOW TEMPS
TONIGHT SUPPORT AT LEAST A LITTLE PATCHY FROST AND EVEN SLIGHTLY
SUB-FREEZING TEMPS IN THE NORTH/WEST...WE ARE STILL ANYWHERE FROM
4-12 DAYS AWAY FROM THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA (ESPECIALLY NEB ZONES)
REACHING THEIR 30-YEAR AVERAGE LAST FREEZE DATE (SEE STORY ON TOP
OF OUR WEB PAGE FOR MORE FREEZE CLIMO DETAILS). AS A RESULT...WE
STILL PLAN ON HOLDING OFF ON FORMAL FROST ADVISORIES/FREEZE
WARNINGS UNTIL AFTER MAY 1ST. THIS ALSO MEANS WE WILL NOT BE
MENTIONING FROST IN THE ROUTINE FORECAST PRODUCTS UNTIL THAT TIME
AS WELL. PUT ANOTHER WAY...WE ARE "HOPING" THAT FOLKS REALIZE IT
IS STILL EARLY ENOUGH IN THE SPRING THAT FROST AND/OR MARGINALLY
FREEZING CONDITIONS CAN STILL BE EXPECTED AND ARE NOT UNUSUAL
ENOUGH TO WARRANT FORMAL HEADLINES.

SWITCHING GEARS NOW AND COVERING THE HERE AND NOW AS OF 330 PM
THIS AFTERNOON: OVERALL TODAY HAS TURNED OUT PRETTY MUCH AS
ANTICIPATED 12 HOURS AGO...WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION OF A LITTLE
MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD THAT HAS TURNED SKIES
MAINLY PARTLY CLOUDY TO LOCALLY MOSTLY CLOUDY. OTHERWISE...A
FAIRLY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACKSIDE OF DEEP SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES ALONG WITH DEEP
MIXING HAS RESULTED IN SEVERAL HOURS OF SUSTAINED 20-30 MPH WIND
AND GUSTS OCCASIONALLY HIGHER THAN 35 MPH ESPECIALLY NORTHEAST
ZONES. IT IS ASSUMED THAT ANY VERY LIGHT PRECIP RETURNS ON RADAR
THIS AFTERNOON ARE NOT EVEN REACHING THE GROUND IN THE DRY LOW-
LEVEL AIRMASS. HIGH TEMPS ARE ON TRACK TO TOP OUT BETWEEN 56-61
ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS..WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE AND SHORT TERM MODEL DATA CONFIRM A DEEP LOW CENTERED
OVER THE NORTHERN MN/CANADA BORDER...WITH THE MAIN ZONAL SOUTHERN
STREAM JET STRETCHED ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN CONUS AND A BROAD
RIDGE IN THE WEST.

LOOKING AHEAD NOW FOR THIS EVENING/TONIGHT...IN THE MID-UPPER
LEVEL BIG PICTURE THE EXPANSIVE GREAT LAKES REGION CLOSED LOW WILL
CONTINUE ITS SLOW EASTWARD DEPARTURE...LEAVING THE LOCAL AREA
UNDER FAIRLY BENIGN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE FEW
PASSING PATCHES OF MID LEVEL CLOUDS...GENERALLY EXPECT SKIES
TONIGHT TO AVERAGE MOSTLY CLEAR IN MOST AREAS ONCE THE CURRENT
DIURNALLY-DRIVEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS FIELD DIMINISHES THIS
EVENING. SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAN AREA OF MAINLY SPRINKLES/LIGHT
SHOWERS COULD AT LEAST FLIRT WITH THE FAR SOUTHERN REACHES OF OUR
CWA IN KS LATE TONIGHT AS A REINFORCING DISTURBANCE SWINGS IN FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST...BUT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS KEEPING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THIS POTENTIAL AT LEAST 1-2 ROWS OF COUNTIES SOUTH OF
THE LOCAL AREA WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY. OTHERWISE AT THE
SURFACE...BREEZES WILL STEADILY DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ONLY
AVERAGE AROUND 5 MPH FROM A GENERALLY WESTERLY DIRECTION MOST OF
THE NIGHT. GIVEN THE LIGHT BREEZES AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...OPTED
TO LEAN AT OR JUST BELOW SOME OF THE COLDER GUIDANCE TEMPS FOR
LOWS TONIGHT...RESULTING IN LITTLE CHANGE FROM BEFORE...AIMING FOR
LOW-MID 30S IN MOST AREAS BUT SOME POTENTIAL FOR COLDER UPPER 20S
IN TYPICAL SPOTS SUCH AS ORD IN THE FAR NORTH. NOT AN IDEAL FROST
SETUP...BUT AT LEAST SOME PATCHY FROST CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY DAYTIME...IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A MODEST DISTURBANCE
ROTATING AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF THE MEAN TROUGH WILL FORCE A WEAK
COLD FRONT INTO THE FAR NORTHERN CWA LATE IN THE DAY/EARLY
EVENING...TURNING BREEZES MORE NORTHERLY. PRIOR TO ITS ARRIVAL
HOWEVER...MOST OF THE DAY SHOULD FEATURE A GENERALLY WEST-
NORTHWEST BREEZE. ALTHOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS TODAY...NUDGED UP
SPEEDS GENERALLY 5 MPH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THANKS TO
ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP MIXING...CALLING FOR SUSTAINED SPEEDS
MAINLY 15-20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS NORTH...AND LIGHTER SPEEDS OF
10-15 MPH SOUTH (ESPECIALLY KS ZONES). ALTHOUGH SKIES SHOULD
AVERAGE MOSTLY SUNNY THROUGH THE BALANCE OF THE DAY...THE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON SHOULD FEATURE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS NORTH...WITH
MODELS SUCH AS THE 18Z NAM AND SOME RUNS OF THE 4KM WRF-NMM EVEN
SUGGESTING THAT COUNTIES MAINLY NORTH OF I-80 COULD SEE SOME LATE
AFTERNOON SPRINKLES/ISOLATED SHOWERS. ALTHOUGH THIS IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...JUST DID NOT SEE ENOUGH EVIDENCE IN MOST MODEL DATA
TO INSERT ANY PRECIP MENTION AT THIS TIME. TEMP-WISE...WITH LOWER
LEVEL TEMPS RISING SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE THOSE OF TODAY...EXPECT
HIGHS AT THE SURFACE TO DO AS WELL...AND MADE FAIRLY LITTLE CHANGE
TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...AIMING MOST NEB ZONES MID-60S AND MORE SO
UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 IN KS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

WE START OUT THE LONG TERM TUESDAY NIGHT WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM ROUNDS INTO THE BASE OF A VORTEX CENTERED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. ALSO A CLOSED LOW WILL UNDERCUT AN AMPLIFIED
RIDGE TO THE WEST. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT...BUT THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE A DRY PASSAGE AS THE AMBIENT
ENVIRONMENT LOOKS DRY ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IS RATHER STRONG BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND I HAVE BUMPED UP
WIND SPEEDS MANUALLY DIRECTLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY
NIGHT...AND ALSO INCREASED WIND GUSTS USING CONSRAW. WIND SHOULD
BECOME RELATIVELY LIGHT TOWARD DAWN FOR MOST AREAS AS THE INCREASED
WIND SPEED WILL BE PRIMARILY JUST BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

AS THE VORTEX MOVES EAST...WE WILL BE SITUATED WITHIN WEAK FLOW BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAMS. WE
SHOULD REMAIN GENERALLY DRY...ALTHOUGH THIS MAY NOT BE CERTAIN AS
NORTHWEST FLOW CAN BE A BIT UNPREDICTABLE...BUT AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT
CONTINUES TO LOOK PRETTY DRY.

SPLIT FLOW CONTINUES FOR THURSDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND POTENTIAL FOR A STATIONARY BOUNDARY NEARBY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST. THE INSTABILITY AXIS SHOULD STILL BE OFF TO THE
WEST...AND WILL GENERALLY HOLD OFF MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION TO THE
SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY...AS WE SHOULD BE STABLE WITH NOT MUCH
SUPPORT FOR GENERATING PRECIPITATION...BUT THERE COULD BE JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN TO GET A FEW SHOWERS GOING. MUCAPES INCREASE
ENOUGH IN OUR SOUTH TO INCLUDE THUNDER FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IN MOST OF
OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS AREA.

FRIDAY COULD BE SOGGY AS A GOOD AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AND LIFT OCCUR
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE MOVING OUT OF THE ROCKIES. NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING AND
PLACEMENT...PLACING THE TRACK OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW NEAR OR SOUTH OF
OUR CWA...PLACING US IN A FAVORABLE AREA FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION. I BUMPED UP CHANCES OF RAIN A BIT MORE COMPARED TO
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR FRIDAY. MUCAPES INDICATE A CONTINUED SHOT
AT ISOLATED THUNDER IN OUR NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS COUNTIES...BUT THERE
REALLY IS NOT ENOUGH INSTABILITY ADVERTISED TO SUPPORT THUNDER TO
THE NORTH OF THIS.

THE WEEKEND...HOWEVER...IS LOWER CONFIDENCE. NUMERICAL MODELS
DIVERGE AS THE ECMWF TAKES THE CLOSED LOW EAST OF THE CWA AND THE
GFS OPENS UP THE WAVE AS IT MOVES EAST. DRY CONDITIONS ARE NOT
GUARANTEED FOR THE WEEKEND AS PERTURBATIONS WITHIN NORTH STREAM FLOW
COULD MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA...ESPECIALLY BY SUNDAY NIGHT AS
MODELS PRODUCE SPOTTY QPF IN THE REGION DURING THE WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY. THIS IS ADVERTISED AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING RIDGE TO THE
WEST...WHICH IS MUCH MORE AMPLIFIED IN THE LATEST RUN OF THE GFS
COMPARED TO A MORE BROAD SOLUTION BY THE ECMWF. THEREFORE...I LEFT
SMALL CHANCES OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...BUT LEFT OUT
THUNDER AS INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE LACKING.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z KGRI/KEAR TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 612 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AND WEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE TUESDAY BY MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS NEAR 25KTS. CLOUDS WILL
REMAIN AT VFR LEVELS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CDT MON APR 20 2015

FOR THE FIRST TIME THIS SPRING...RECENT RAINFALL AND THE SLOW-
BUT-STEADY GREEN-UP OF VEGETATION IS LEGITIMATELY TEMPERING THE
OVERALL FIRE DANGER WITHIN THE CWA...DESPITE A COMBINATION OF LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) AND GUSTY WINDS THAT IS MEETING/WILL MEET
AT LEAST "NEAR-CRITICAL" METEOROLOGICAL THRESHOLDS BOTH THIS
AFTERNOON AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH NOT EVERYBODY
WITHIN THE CWA (ESPECIALLY EASTERN/SOUTHEAST ZONES) SAW
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH SINCE THE MIDDLE OF LAST
WEEK...CONVERSATIONS WITH LOCAL FIRE WEATHER MANAGERS EARLIER
TODAY REVEALED THAT THEY DO NOT CONSIDER FUELS (VEGETATION) TO
BE PRIMED FOR "EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH" AT THIS TIME ACROSS THE CWA
AS A WHOLE.

AS A RESULT OF THIS...WE WILL AT LEAST TEMPORARILY BE FOREGOING A
MENTION OF "NEAR-CRITICAL" FIRE DANGER IN PRODUCTS SUCH AS THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK (HWOGID) FOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE FACT THAT THE FORECAST CALLS FOR AN
OVERLAP OF RH VALUES AS LOW AS 20-25 PERCENT AND WINDS GUSTING
GENERALLY 20-25 MPH (ESPECIALLY WITHIN THE NORTHERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA). FORTUNATELY...THERE ARE NO DAYS IN THE 7-DAY FORECAST BEYOND
TUESDAY THAT CURRENTLY APPEAR TO CARRY A HEIGHTENED FIRE DANGER
DUE TO EITHER LACK OF WIND AND/OR INCREASING RH. IF AND WHEN THE
NEXT DAY(S) WITH A SUFFICIENTLY LOW RH/STRONG ENOUGH WINDS PRESENT
THEMSELVES DOWN THE ROAD...WE WILL GET WITH AREA FIRE MANAGERS AND
RE-EVALUATE THE VEGETATIVE FUEL STATUS.

CLOSING WITH A QUICK REVIEW OF OUR LOCAL FIRE WEATHER THRESHOLDS:
"CRITICAL" FIRE WEATHER IN OUR CWA IS DEFINED AS THE 3+ HOUR OVERLAP
OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY (RH) OF 20 PERCENT-OR-LOWER AND SUSTAINED
WINDS/GUSTS OF 20+ MPH/25+ MPH. "NEAR-CRITICAL" IS DEFINED AS THE
OVERLAP OF 25 PERCENT-OR-LOWER RH AND SUSTAINED WINDS GUSTS OF 15+
MPH/20+ MPH (IN THE PRESENCE OF DRY VEGETATION OF COURSE).

&&

.GID WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...NONE.
KS...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PFANNKUCH
LONG TERM...HEINLEIN
AVIATION...FAY
FIRE WEATHER...PFANNKUCH


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