Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Huntsville, AL

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000
FXUS64 KHUN 020928
AFDHUN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
428 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015

.DISCUSSION...
AN INTERESTING SETUP THIS MORNING...WITH MULTIPLE BOUNDARIES NOTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AL/GA. IN ADDITION TO THE BOUNDARIES THERE ARE TWO
SHORTWAVES NOTED ON WV IMAGERY...THE FIRST WAVE WAS LIFTING INTO W
IL AND THE SECOND WAS LOCATED IN THE ARKLATEX REGION. CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE IS MOVING INTO NC TN AND SHOULD
MISS THE AREA. LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE FORMED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS
ACROSS MS/LA ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECOND WAVE. A WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED ACROSS CENTRAL AL...SHOWN BEST IN REGIONAL RADAR
IMAGERY OVERNIGHT...AND WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N INTO THE REGION THIS
MORNING. ANOTHER FEATURE WAS SHOWN ON RADAR MOVING NWWD FROM SE GA
INTO THE ATLANTA AREA. THIS SECONDARY BOUNDARY IS MOVING QUICKLY NWWD
AND SHOULD COLLIDE WITH WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR NE AL/NW GA EARLY
THIS MORNING. WITH WEAK MU CAPE OF AROUND 500 J/KG OVER THE AREA AND
THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE...THE COLLISION OF THE BOUNDARIES COULD
INITIATE SOME CONVECTION ALONG THE AL/GA BORDER EARLY THIS MORNING.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO FILL IN ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SHORTWAVE AND MOVE FAVORABLE
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT MOVES OVER THE AREA. WHILE INSTABILITY WILL NOT
BE LACKING WITH 1000-2000 J/KG OF CAPE DEVELOPING BY AS EARLY AS
15Z...SHEAR ON THE OTHER HAND IS NOT VERY IMPRESSIVE THIS AFTERNOON
WITH 0-6KM SHEAR BELOW 30 KTS. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND HAIL
GREATER THAN 1 INCH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
THAT DEVELOP TODAY. ALL ACTIVITY SHOULD BEGIN TO WIND DOWN LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE SHORTWAVE EXITS TO THE EAST AND THE ATMOSPHERE
BECOMES MORE STABLE.

FRIDAY...THERE WILL BE A THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE ENTIRE AREA
BUT IS NOT EXPECTED TO DEVELOP UNTIL THE EVENING HOURS. SPC HAS
PLACED OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES IN THE ENHANCED RISK WITH THE
REMAINING COUNTIES UNDER THE SLIGHT RISK. A STRONG CAP IN PLACE FOR
MOST OF THE DAY WILL PREVENT STORMS FROM FORMING. FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA.
CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 60KTS
WILL SUPPORT WIND GUSTS AND SEVERE HAIL. THE QUESTION WILL BE WHETHER
OR NOT ANY THUNDERSTORMS CAN FORM AHEAD OF THE FRONT...THERE WILL BE
A NARROW WINDOW JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WHERE LOW LEVEL SHEAR BECOMES
FAVORABLE TO SUPPORT LOW LEVEL ROTATION AND A TORNADO MAY BE
POSSIBLE. THE MAIN FRONT SHOULD BE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY AND THE
THREAT WILL QUICKLY BECOME WIND GUSTS AND HAIL.

HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN BEHIND THE FRONT WITH MUCH COLDER AIR
SPREADING INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY THIS WEEKEND. LOWS DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 40S BY SATURDAY MORNING AND INTO THE MID TO UPPER 30S BY
SUNDAY MORNING. SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR FOR A MAJORITY OF
THE WEEKEND WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE 60S BOTH DAYS. SUNDAY THE
HIGH PRESSURE AREA SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA AND WE RETURN TO A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. A QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE LIFTING NE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO COULD SPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA AS
EARLY AS SUNDAY EVENING.

NEXT WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BE ANOTHER UNSETTLED WEEK WITH MULTIPLE
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL FOR MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.


STUMPF

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 1242 AM CDT THU APR 2 2015/
FOR 06Z TAFS...

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS N AL/S MIDDLE TN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOW MVFR CIGS CLOSER TO 02/10Z-
17Z AS LOW CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM SE GA EXPAND NORTH AND WEST. THEN
TSRA ARE POSSIBLE AFTER 17Z AND HAVE INCLUDED VCTS BTWN 17-01Z FOR
THIS POSSIBILITY. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE AND VEER TO THE SW AFTER
17Z AS A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES OVER AR.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    79  60  75  44 /  40  20  60  80
SHOALS        79  61  75  45 /  40  20  70  70
VINEMONT      77  59  74  44 /  40  20  60  80
FAYETTEVILLE  75  59  73  42 /  40  20  60  70
ALBERTVILLE   75  57  74  43 /  40  20  50  80
FORT PAYNE    76  56  74  43 /  40  20  50  80

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

$$

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.


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