Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FXUS64 KJAN 270302 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1002 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015

.UPDATE...EVENING SURFACE ANALYSIS HAD A COLD FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE
CWA JUST SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR. THE DRIER AIR BEHIND
THE FRONT WAS NOTED ALONG HIGHWAY 82. THE FRONT AND THE DRIER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO SAG INTO SOUTH MISSISSIPPI BY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG
CONVECTION WAS NOTED THIS EVENING OVER CENTRAL TEXAS AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS STILL SHOW THIS ACTIVITY
DEVELOPING INTO A COMPLEX OF STORMS AND TRACKING JUST SOUTHWEST OF
OUR CWA BY MORNING. MOST HI-RES MODELS SUGGEST A FEW STORMS OVER OUR
SOUTHWEST MOST ZONES BY SUNRISE. DEPENDING ON THE ACTUAL TRACK AND
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT...A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BE STRONG OVER THE
SOUTHWEST MONDAY MORNING. THE ONLY ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED TO THE FORECAST
WAS TO INCREASE DEW POINTS AND CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. /22/

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG AROUND
DAYBREAK MON AT HBG. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE
POSSIBLE AFTER 08Z MONDAY MORNING...WEST OF THE MS RIVER AND ACROSS
SW MS. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WL SPREAD ACROSS HBG MON AFTN. GUSTY NE
WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED MON OVER THE HWY 82 CORRIDOR. /DL/22/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 419 PM CDT SUN APR 26 2015/

DISCUSSION...IT HAS BEEN A NICE BUT SOMEWHAT WARM DAY TODAY AS A
COLD FRONT SLIDES DOWN INTO OUR REGION. TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT HAVE BEEN ABLE TO WARM INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. LOWER 80S ARE NOTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH DRIER AIR ALSO
BEING NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LINGER OR
STALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES LATER TODAY. MOISTURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
BACK INTO THE REGION AND SOME SHOWERS COULD OCCUR NEAR THE BOUNDARY
LATE TONIGHT MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK TO INCREASE ON MONDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINS
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. A SFC LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE TEXAS
COAST AND TRACK EAST ALONG THE BOUNDARY THROUGH LOUISIANA. THIS WILL
AT LEAST BRING SOME RAIN TO THE REGION. THERE IS SOME POSSIBILITY FOR
A FEW MORE ROBUST STORMS IN THE SOUTHWEST/SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS
LAPSE RATES APPEAR DECENT AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT.
THERE IS SOME THOUGHT THAT THIS COULD REMAIN STILL SOUTH OF MY CWA
AND HAVE NOT YET INCLUDED ANYTHING IN OUR HWO/GRAPHICS FOR THIS. THE
SFC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY. ELEVATED
INSTABILITY WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR SOME THUNDERSTORMS SOUTH OF I-20
WITH SHOWERS PREDOMINATE NORTH OF SAID INTERSTATE. GIVEN THE MORE
STABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION...NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN THE WAY OF
SEVERE WEATHER AT ALL BUT SOME BETTER LAPSE RATES EXIST THAT MAY
SUGGEST A SMALL POTENTIAL IN THE SOUTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SFC
LOW.

THE SFC LOW WILL MOVE EAST OF THE REGION INTO FLORIDA TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY. RAIN WILL BE TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS
THE REGION. MUCH DRIER AIR WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION AS SFC HIGH
AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVE IN. THIS WILL BRING COOLER AIR BACK INTO
THE REGION THE LATTER PARTS OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN
THE 60S AND 70S WITH LOWS IN THE 50S SHOULD MAKE FOR A SPECTACULAR
END TO APRIL AND BEGINNING OF MAY. /28/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       60  72  55  65 /   9  28  59  71
MERIDIAN      58  73  55  66 /   7  11  39  69
VICKSBURG     62  72  56  62 /  15  37  64  64
HATTIESBURG   64  76  60  71 /  12  47  65  66
NATCHEZ       64  73  58  65 /  29  53  70  60
GREENVILLE    57  68  54  60 /  10  24  51  69
GREENWOOD     56  69  54  61 /   7  13  35  68

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

22/28



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