Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Jacksonville, FL

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FXUS62 KJAX 180127
AFDJAX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
920 PM EDT FRI APR 17 2015

...WARM/WET AND UNSETTLED PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...

.UPDATE... NEXT SHORTWAVE IN THE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OVER ALABAMA HAS
TRIGGERED A LARGE MASS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST GEORGIA WHICH IS HEADED TOWARDS
THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND WILL IMPACT MAINLY SOUTHEAST GEORGIA WITH
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...IT MAY PUSH A FEW ISOLD TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG THE I-10
CORRIDOR OF NORTH FLORIDA THAT MAY SKIRT THE JAX METRO AREA LATER
TONIGHT...BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SE GA.
MIN TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. LATE
TONIGHT STILL EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG ACROSS NORTH FLORIDA WITH VSBYS
POSSIBLY DOWN INTO THE 1-3 MILE RANGE...ALONG WITH SOME POTENTIAL
FOG FOLLOWING THE RAINFALL ACROSS SE GA...BUT OVERALL WITH ABUNDANT
CLOUD COVER AND ENOUGH LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TO KEEP LOW LEVELS MIXED
TO KEEP MUCH IN THE WAY OF ANY DENSE FOG FORMING. THE TIMING OF THIS
SHORTWAVE EXITING THE REGION DURING THE MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY IS
CAUSING ALL SORTS OF PROBLEMS WITH THE HI-RES MODELS TRYING TO
RESOLVE SATURDAY`S CONVECTION AND BELIEVE THEY ARE ALL WAY TOO HIGH
WITH MORNING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS SE GA/NE FL AND BELIEVE SOME WEAK
SUBSIDENCE (DOWNWARD MOTION) LEFT IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORTWAVE WILL
MAKE FOR LOWER RAIN CHANCES DURING THE MORNING (20-30%) BECOMING
HIGHER WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND SCATTERED TO POSSIBLY NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS A WARMER WEST TO
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUMP DAYTIME HIGHS INTO THE 80S.

&&

.AVIATION... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH AROUND 06Z AT THE
REGIONAL TERMINALS. SHOWERS MAY IMPACT SSI BETWEEN 06Z-10Z...WITH
PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE DURING THAT TIME FRAME. LIFR
CIGS OF 200-400 FT ARE EXPECTED AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS FROM
AROUND 10Z THROUGH ABOUT 14Z. MAINLY MVFR VISIBILITIES ARE EXPECTED
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS...WITH A PERIOD OF IFR VISIBILITIES
POSSIBLE AT VQQ. CIGS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR TOWARDS 14Z...WITH VFR
EXPECTED AROUND 17Z AT THE REGIONAL TERMINALS. A SEA BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP AT SSI...CRG...AND SGJ TOWARDS 17Z...WITH ONSHORE WINDS
AROUND 10 KNOTS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
AFTER 17Z...BUT CONFIDENCE IN TIMING AND INTENSITY WAS TOO LOW FOR
ANYTHING MORE THAN VICINITY SHOWERS FOR THE 00Z TAFS.

&&

.MARINE... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS EVENTUALLY
BECOMING SOUTHWEST TOWARDS MORNING...CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY UNTIL
LOCAL EAST TO SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES AT 10-15 KNOTS SET UP DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

RIP CURRENTS: MODERATE RISK WILL LINGER INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A FEW
SWELLS IMPACTING THE COAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  64  82  67  82 /  60  30  30  70
SSI  66  78  69  79 /  50  20  30  60
JAX  66  85  68  84 /  20  40  30  60
SGJ  67  84  69  80 /  10  40  30  50
GNV  66  87  67  84 /  20  50  30  60
OCF  67  88  68  86 /  20  50  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$

HESS/NELSON/WALSH



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