Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Lake Charles, LA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KLCH 020445
AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1145 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015

.AVIATION...ALTHOUGH SLIGHTLY DELAYED, STILL EXPECTING LOWERING
CIGS TO MVFR WITH GUSTY WINDS BY MID-MORNING AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS AND IMPROVEMENT TO VFR CIGS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

SWEENEY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1005 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...
LOCAL 88DS SHOW MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED OR
WEAKENED WITH LOSS OF HEATING THIS EVENING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVING INTO THE AREA ATTM WHICH WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SOME LIFT TO THE REGION AS IT PASSES...WHILE
AREA 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW GOOD MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST H8. COMBO
OF THESE FACTORS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTION TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WRN/NRN AREAS WHERE
MOISTURE/THETA-E RIDGING IS PROGGED TO RUN A LITTLE BETTER. ONE
CHANGE THAT WAS MADE WAS REDUCING THUNDER TO JUST AN ISOLATED
MENTION THE REST OF THE NIGHT BASED ON DIMINISHING INSTABILITY.
ELSEWHERE NO REAL ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED BASED ON SFC OBS/TRENDS
THIS EVENING.

UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.
25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 652 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

AVIATION...MOISTURE IN THE LOWER LEVELS WILL INCREASE FROM THE
WEST. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE FOR LCH WITH TEMPO LIFR TOWARDS
MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT FOG AT LFT AND ARA BUT LIFR WILL MORE
LIKELY BE DUE TO CIGS. A STRONGER GRADIENT TO THE WEST WILL RESULT
IN LIFR CIGS WITH GOOD VSBY AT BPT AND MVFR CIGS AT AEX.

MVFR CIGS AFTER MID-MORNING THURSDAY FOR ALL EXCEPT BPT AND AEX
WHERE STRONGER WINDS WILL LIFT CIGS TO VFR.

11

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 220 PM CDT WED APR 1 2015/

DISCUSSION...A RIDGE AT THE SURFACE REMAINS STRETCHED FROM
CENTRAL FL ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A WARM AND MOIST SOUTH FLOW. ALOFT A WEAK MID
LVL RIDGE IS SHIFTING EAST WHILE A MODEST SHORT WAVE OVER TX
APPROACHES. WITH THE DEPARTING OF THE UPPER RIDGING AND INCOMING
DISTURBANCE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED WITH AFTERNOON
HEATING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE INTO LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY
EVENING WITH MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING OVER SE TX. THE WEAK UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA TONIGHT LEAVING THU WITH
ONLY A FEW ISOLD AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS, HOWEVER BY FRIDAY A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
BY AFTERNOON. THE DAY SHOULD START QUIET, HOWEVER CONVECTION MAY
MOVE INTO THE AREA WITH THE BOUNDARY MID/LATE AFTERNOON AND ONE OR
TWO STORMS MAY BE STRONG ACROSS CENLA WHERE THE MARGINAL
INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHER. AS THE FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTH AND INTO
THE EVENING THE STORMS WILL BE LESS VIGOROUS. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
OFF THE COAST DURING THE EVENING LEAVING COOLING TEMPS AND WINDY
CONDITIONS FOR SATURDAY MORNING. STRONG CAA WILL DROP TEMPS 10 TO
20 DEGREES ACROSS THE REGION FROM FRI INTO SAT AND SUN MORNING,
HOWEVER A QUICK WARM AND MOISTENING UP IS EXPECTED LATE IN THE
WEEKEND INTO MONDAY AS THE RETURN FLOW SETS UP BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AS THE RIDGE PUSHES INTO THE SE STATES. A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL
KEEP A SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN PLACE FROM SUNDAY
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

MARINE...A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN STRETCHED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM THE ATLANTIC THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING
KEEPING A LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IN PLACE. FRIDAY EVENING
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE GULF WITH STRONG NORTH
WINDS EXPECTED BEHIND THE BOUNDARY. AN SCA MAY BE NEEDED FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY AS WINDS TOP 20KTS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS.
WINDS AND SEA WILL DIMINISH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH WINDS VEERING
BACK ONSHORE BY SUNDAY MORNING. A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW IS THEN
EXPECTED THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A RIDGE MOVES ACROSS
THE SE STATES.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AEX  64  84  67  82 /  20  20  10  30
LCH  67  80  68  82 /  20  20  10  20
LFT  66  83  67  85 /  20  10  10  20
BPT  67  81  68  83 /  20  10  10  20

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$


AVIATION...11


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.