Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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000
FXUS66 KMFR 270858
AFDMFR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEDFORD OR
158 AM PDT MON APR 27 2015

.DISCUSSION...OFFSHORE FLOW IS SPREADING ACROSS THE EAST SIDE THIS
MORNING WITH THE COMBINATION OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE AREA AND A THERMAL TROUGH DEEPENING OB THE COAST. THIS ABRUPT
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN COMBINING WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING A
WARM AIR MASS INTO THE REGION WILL RESULT IN DRAMATICALLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES TODAY COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEAK FRONT THAT BRINGS PRECIP TO THE
COAST MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT MOVES IN IN A FAVORABLE RIGHT
ENTRANCE REGION OF A +90KT JET BUT E PRECEDING FLOW IS FROM THE
NORTHEAST RESULTING IN POOR MOISTURE ADVECTION PRECEDING IT. THIS
FRONT WILL BRING IN A COLD AIR MASS IN BEHIND IT WITH 850 TEMPS
AROUND 1 C OVER THE WEST SIDE WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 27/06Z TAF CYCLE...
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT EXCEPT IN THE VALLEYS OF THE
UMPQUA BASIN AND POSSIBLY VALLEYS WITHIN AND NEAR THE COAST RANGE,
WHERE PATCHY IFR TO LIFR FOG IS POSSIBLE BETWEEN 09Z AND 16Z. SOME
EAST DRAINAGE COMPONENT TO THE WINDS IS LIKELY TO RESULT IN A SLIGHT
DRYING EFFECT ALONG AND NEAR THE IMMEDIATE COAST, PREVENTING FOG
FROM BEING MUCH OF A PROBLEM AT KOTH. BTL

&&

.MARINE...UPDATED 900 PM PDT SUNDAY, APR 26, 2015... WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE OVER THE ARE TONIGHT. A BRIEF AND
WEAK THERMAL TROUGH WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BUT NORTH WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA. SOUTH WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE
NEXT FAIRLY WEAK COLD FRONT. NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
FRONT...INCREASING ON WEDNESDAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY SOUTH OF CAPE BLANCO. THE LAST
TWO GFS MODEL RUNS HAVE INDICATED AN AREA OF GALES WEST OF
POINT SAINT GEORGE ON THURSDAY. BTL/FB

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...NONE.

CA...NONE.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...NONE.

$$

SBN/SBN/SBN


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