Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Melbourne, FL

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FXUS62 KMLB 210224
AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1020 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015

.UPDATE...

CONVECTION HAS ENDED ACROSS ALL BUT EASTERN MARTIN COUNTY..AND WILL
MOVE OFFSHORE FROM THERE INTO THE ADJACENT ATLC WITHIN THE HOUR.

HAVE SLASHED POPS BACK TO JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
SPRINKLES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. NW-N WIND SURGE ASCD WITH
LARGE SCALE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS LIKELY ALREADY PUSHED TEMPS TO
THEIR MINS...OR VERY NEARLY SO. CURRENT READINGS ARE 67-70F OVER THE
NORTH HALF CWA AND L70S TO THE SOUTH...AND EXPECT NEARLY STEADY TEMPS
THE REST OF THE NIGHT UNDER MCLDY SKIES.

&&

.AVIATION...MID LEVEL DECK OVC100-120 WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
OVERNIGHT. WSW TO WRLY H85 FLOW AROUND 20KT OVER THE TOP OF LIGHT
WINDS BEHIND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOT AN CLASSIC RECIPE FOR LOW
CLOUDS/MIST...BUT ADDED SOME TO THE TAFS FOR LATE TONIGHT GIVEN HWO
MOIST THE NEAR SFC LAYER IS FROM COPIOUS RAINS.

&&

.MARINE...NW-NRLY WINDS BEHIND OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ALREADY STARTING TO
VEER TO NE...AND WILL CONTINUE TO COME ALL THE WAY BACK AROUND TO
LIGHT SRLY THROUGH SUNRISE. SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3FT.

&&

UPDATE/AVIATION...CRISTALDI
RADAR/IMPACT WX...SEDLOCK/KELLY
PUBLIC SERVICE...ULRICH

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 326 PM EDT MON APR 20 2015/

TUE-WED...(MODIFIED PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) WEAK COOL FRONT WILL MOVE
INTO THE AREA TUE AND EVENTUALLY STALL TOWARD TO JUST NORTH OF LAKE
OKEECHOBEE. GRADUAL DRYING WILL ENSUE NORTH TO SOUTH BEHIND THE
FRONT WITH DIMINISHED RAIN CHANCES FOR AREAS NORTH OF ORLANDO TO
LESS THAN 30 PERCENT. SOUTH OF ORLANDO...WILL STILL REALIZE
SCATTERED POPS UP TO 50 PERCENT ACROSS OKEECHOBEE COUNTY AND THE
SOUTHERN TREASURE COAST AS FRONT MAINTAINS ELEVATED MOISTURE IN THIS
REGION. DUE TO THE WEAK NATURE OF THIS BOUNDARY TEMPS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO WITH HIGHS MID-UPPER 80S.

HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WED WITH CONCENTRATED MOISTURE STILL
SHUNTED SOUTHWARD IN VICINITY OF STALLED/WEAKENING BOUNDARY...EVEN
WHILE LOCAL SURFACE FLOW VEERS ONSHORE. A FLATTENED UPPER PATTERN
WILL ALLOW LOCAL CIRCULATIONS TO GOVERN CONVECTIVE PATTERN.
SUFFICIENT HEATING AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO DRIVE
SCATTERED POPS WITH SOMEWHAT BETTER CHANCES INLAND AND SOUTH TOWARD
TREASURE COAST AND LAKE OKEECHOBEE. MAX TEMPS SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
CLIMO FOR INLAND LOCATIONS.

THU-SUN...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION) SCT POPS EACH DAY AS OVERALL DEEP
LAYER MOISTURE AVAILABILITY RETURNS TO CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH OLD AND
MEANDERING BOUNDARY. SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT EXACTNESS OF PATTERN BUT
END RESULT IS ESSENTIALLY THE SAME UNDER BROAD SYNOPTICS. MODELS
TENDING TOWARD POSSIBLE SURFACE LOW COMING OFF THE CENTRAL PLANS AND
MOVING EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. IF SO...A MORE
PRONOUNCED SW FLOW TO RE-ESTABLISH IN ADVANCE. IN THE INTERIM...20-
40 PERCENT DIURNAL RAIN CHANCES AND MAX TEMPS IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90
AND MIN TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...TEMPO IFR/MVFR CONDS AS WELL AS VARIABLE STRONG TO ISO
SVR WIND GUSTS IN NMRS SHRA/TSRA EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH
SUNSET. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE EVENING
WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS CONTINUING OVERNIGHT.
THEREFORE MAINLY VFR AFT MIDNIGHT THROUGH TUE MORN. WEAK FRONT WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION TOMORROW WITH SOME DRIER AIR BUILDING IN BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. SCT AFT/EVE SHRA/TSRA WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY SOUTH OF
ORLANDO TOMORROW.

&&

.MARINE...

TUE-THU...WEAK FRONT FORECAST TO MOVE DOWN THE FL
PENINSULA ON TUE WITH WIND FLOW W/NW 10 KNOTS. FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT
MID WEEK WILL BECOME ONSHORE AROUND 10 KNOTS. SEAS WILL REMAIN 4
FEET OR LESS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  66  83  62  83 /  40  10  10  20
MCO  67  89  68  87 /  40  20  30  40
MLB  68  85  70  83 /  50  30  30  30
VRB  68  84  69  84 /  50  40  40  30
LEE  66  86  67  87 /  30  20  20  30
SFB  66  87  65  87 /  40  20  20  30
ORL  67  88  68  87 /  40  20  30  40
FPR  69  85  69  85 /  50  50  40  40

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$


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