Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL

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FXUS64 KMOB 041632 AAA
AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1132 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

.MARINE...LATEST UPDATE NOW INCLUDES A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE
OFFSHORE LEGS FROM PASCAGOULA TO DESTIN FROM 20 TO 60 NM OUT
BEGINNING EARLY THIS EVENING CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDS AT 20 KNOTS SUSTAINED WILL BE LIKELY AT TIMES TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY WELL OFFSHORE. SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS UP TO 7 FEET WILL
ALSO BE LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. FOR ALL OTHER
MARINE AREAS WINDS WILL RANGE FROM 13 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS
A RESULT SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. 32/EE

&&

.AVIATION...
04.18Z TAF ISSUANCE...VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 05.18Z. WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHEAST AT 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING BECOMING EAST AT 8 TO 12 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY TUE...
THEN INCREASING TO 12 TO 16 KNOTS BY LATE TUE MORNING. 32/EE

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 613 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

UPDATE...WE DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUED A HIGH RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS FOR THE BEACHES OF ALABAMA AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
FOR TODAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE PERSISTENT MODERATE
TO OCNLY STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASED RISK
OF RIP CURRENTS. ALREADY UPDATED GRIDS/ZONES TO REFLECT THIS HAZARD.
12/DS

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 423 AM CDT MON MAY 4 2015/

SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...ANOTHER MILD AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAY.
SOME AREAS THOUGH WILL EXPERIENCE SOME EARLY MORNING FOG BUT THIS
WILL RAPIDLY DISSIPATE FOLLOWING SUNRISE THIS MORNING. SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ALOFT WILL KEEP CLOUDS SPARSE AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES. COASTAL AREAS WILL EXPERIENCE A BREEZY EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW DUE TO THE TIGHTENING OF THE SURFACE
GRADIENT AROUND THE ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE CENTERED JUST EAST
OF THE NORTH CAROLINA COASTLINE. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE
FROM THE MID 80S TO UPPER 70S ALONG THE COAST AND ONSHORE FLOW WILL
KEEP OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 60S NEAR THE
COAST WHILE FURTHER INLAND THEY WILL FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S.
PATCHY FOG DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AGAIN PRIOR TO SUNRISE TUESDAY
MORNING. 08/JW

(TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY)...STILL LITTLE TO NO REAL CHANGE IN THE WEATHER
PATTERN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY FROM PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. SFC HIGH
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
SEABOARD WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A GENERALLY EAST WIND
FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...WITH DIURNAL FLUCTUATIONS IN DIRECTION WITH
MORE OF A NORTHEASTERLY COMPONENT (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST)
OVERNIGHT THEN MORE OF A SOUTHEASTERLY COMPONENT DURING THE DAY ON
BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME HINT THAT ANOTHER EASTERLY WAVE WILL
MOVE WEST OVER THE GULF...BUT SOUTH OF THE FCST AREA ON TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED GENERAL RIDGING ALOFT WILL ACT TO SURPRESS
CLOUDS AND ANY REAL CHANCES FOR PCPN. WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITY
OF LATE NIGHT PATCHY FOG FOR TUESDAY NIGHT (ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN HALF
OF FCST AREA). HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 80S BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
(BUT POSSIBLY A FEW UPPER 70S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST). LOWS
TUESDAY NIGHT RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S INLAND TO THE LOW TO MID
60S COASTAL. 12/DS

LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS STILL CONSISTENTLY
CONTINUE TO SHOW NO REAL CHANGES TO THE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. SFC HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
RIDGE INTO THE REGION...BUT AS NOTED YESTERDAY MORNING BECOMES MORE
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTED AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIKELY
DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST US COAST. MID/UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY INFLUENCING THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FCST AREA AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS ANY ANY CHANCES FOR PCPN. THERE COULD BE A
VERY ISOLATED SHOWER OR TWO EACH DAY AS LOLVL MOISTURE GRADUALLY
INCREASES...BUT CHANCES TOO LOW TO INCLUDE AT THIS TIME. HIGH TEMPERATURES
REMAIN RATHER CONSISTENT THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY AS WELL...MAINLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
EACH NIGHT. 12/DS

MARINE...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING WESTWARD OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WILL CREATE A
PERSISTENT MODERATE TO STRONG EASTERLY WIND FLOW THROUGH MID WEEK.
08/JW

AVIATION...(03/12Z ISSUANCE)...ASIDE FROM SOME PATCHY EARLY MORNING
FOG/LOW STRATUS PRODUCING VLIFR...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS
THE FLYING AREA. 08/JW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      81  61  83  61  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
PENSACOLA   80  65  80  66  80 /  05  05  05  05  05
DESTIN      81  66  77  67  76 /  05  05  05  05  05
EVERGREEN   85  58  85  59  83 /  05  05  05  05  05
WAYNESBORO  84  57  84  59  84 /  05  05  05  05  05
CAMDEN      84  58  85  59  84 /  05  05  05  05  05
CRESTVIEW   85  58  85  59  85 /  05  05  05  05  05

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR LOWER
     BALDWIN-LOWER MOBILE.

FL...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING FOR COASTAL
     ESCAMBIA-COASTAL OKALOOSA-COASTAL SANTA ROSA.

MS...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM CDT TUESDAY
     FOR WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
     WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS FROM 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

$$


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