Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mt. Holly, NJ

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000
FXUS61 KPHI 020347
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1147 PM EDT WED APR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT
ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA
FRIDAY, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR SOUTH
SUNDAY, WHILE A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. THIS
FRONT MAY STALL NEAR THE AREA THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK,
WITH SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CLEAR BEAUTIFUL OVERNIGHT WITH IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS MUCH OF
THE COUNTRYSIDE AND SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TEMP TRENDS IN A FEW
COUNTRYSIDE LOCATIONS IN THE MIDNIGHT ESTF. MOST OF THE SNOW IS
GONE NOW EXCEPT IN THE WOODED REGIONS N OF I-80.

A SUNNY MILD THURSDAY FOLLOWS WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS 25
TO 30 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS.
AFTERNOON TEMPS 4 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...NEAR 65 EXCEPT
COOLER IN THE ELEVATIONS ABOVE 500 FEET.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT/...
BECOMING CLOUDY. SHOWERS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAWN FRIDAY AS A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW WITH ITS ASSOCIATED MODEST INSTABILITY
BURST. KI NEAR 32. LOWS 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, SETTING UP THE
BEGINNING OF A WET PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT DOES NOT
LOOK TO MAKE IT FULLY INTO OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT MAY STALL
JUST TO OUR NORTH, WHILE AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE
FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG
THE BOUNDARY DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, AND MOVE ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
NIGHT, FINALLY PULLING THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE
TRAVERSING THE AREA DURING THIS TIME PERIOD, WHICH WILL LEAD TO
SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THERE
REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY FORECAST ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY
INTO FRIDAY EVENING AS A PORTION OF THE AREA WILL LIKELY BE IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, SO WE WILL KEEP A MENTION OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST. DUE TO THE LACK OF STRONG
INSTABILITY AND STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, WE ARE NOT EXPECTING
SEVERE WEATHER. HOWEVER, IF THUNDERSTORMS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
PRODUCE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS. ACTUALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
FRIDAY MAY BE A GUSTY DAY IN GENERAL DUE TO THE SYNOPTIC PRESSURE
GRADIENT. AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT ENOUGH COLD AIR COULD MOVE INTO THE AREA TO CHANGE
THE RAIN OVER TO SNOW FOR A PERIOD ACROSS THE POCONOS.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO HAVE MOVED PAST THE AREA BY SATURDAY
MORNING. THERE COULD BE A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS EARLY IN THE DAY,
BUT WE EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO END THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AS
THE LOW MOVES WELL TO OUR NORTH, STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA, LEADING TO A GUSTY DAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH.
THE STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BEGIN TO DROP OFF OVERNIGHT.

ON SUNDAY, A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA FRONT THE NORTH, BUT
MAY NOT FULLY MAKE IT ACROSS THE AREA AS THE FRONT MAY STALL JUST TO
THE NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, THEN LIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST
EARLY MONDAY WHEN THE FRONT MAY FINALLY PUSH ACROSS THE AREA.
HOWEVER, THIS IS WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH THE LONG TERM
MODELS. THE GFS ENDS UP LIFTING THIS FRONT BACK NORTHWARD MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BEFORE PROGRESSIVELY MOVING AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE OUT OF THE MID-WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE ECMWF STALLS THE FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA FOR
MONDAY THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY, BEFORE SLOWLY MOVING AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WITH THE DIFFERENCE IN MODEL GUIDANCE AND THE FACT ITS STILL PRETTY
FAR OUT, WE`VE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE WHICH MORE CLOSELY
RESEMBLES THE ECMWF AND ENSEMBLES. THAT BEING SAID, THE EARLY TO
MID PART OF NEXT WEEK COULD BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...CLEAR. CALM TO LIGHT SSW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR CLEAR OR SCT CLOUDS AOA 20000 FT. SW WIND
INCREASING WITH GUSTS DURING THE AFTERNOON OF 25-30 KT.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CIGS AOA 6000 FT BECOME MVFR OR IFR IN SHOWERS
AFTER 10Z. MODEST LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. SW SFC WIND 10-15 KT WITH
WINDS AT 1000 FT 210 35-40 KT MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND 230 50 KT AT
2000 FT, ESPECIALLY NEAR 05Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...PERIODS OF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH
SHOWERS LIKELY; THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY. GUSTY SOUTHWEST
WINDS 20-30 KNOTS FRIDAY.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS 20-30 KNOTS
DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES PRIOR TO NOON THURSDAY AS THE WINDS TURN S-SW AT
10-15 KT.

SCA THIS AFTN-TONIGHT AS THE SW WIND GUSTS NEAR 25 KT, ESPECIALLY
NEAR SHORE THURSDAY AFTN.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AS A COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AFFECT THE AREA AND MOVE THROUGH.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...WINDS MAY APPROACH ADVISORY LEVELS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WE ARE FORECASTING A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WIND INCREASING TO 15 TO
20 MPH FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 MPH
AT THAT TIME. ALSO, RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
AROUND 30 PERCENT AND FUEL MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE ON THE
DECREASE.

THERE WILL PROBABLY BE AN ENHANCED THREAT OF WILDFIRE SPREAD ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT FOR THOSE AREAS THAT STILL HAVE SNOW
COVER. WE WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AT ABOUT 4
AM FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION WITH OUR PARTNERS FOR ANY
FURTHER UPGRADES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THURSDAY TO 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/IOVINO/NIERENBERG 1147
SHORT TERM...DRAG/IOVINO 1147
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO/ROBERTSON 1147
MARINE...DRAG/IOVINO/ROBERTSON 1147
FIRE WEATHER...1147



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