Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Phoenix, AZ

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FXUS65 KPSR 260949
AFDPSR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
250 AM MST SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER ARIZONA WILL MOVE INTO NEW
MEXICO TODAY. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CONFINED TO EASTERN ARIZONA...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND WESTERN ARIZONA. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND IS FORECAST THIS WEEK...WITH LOWER DESERT TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING THE 100 DEGREE MARK BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

TODAY...A STRONG NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WORKED ITS WAY ACROSS
CENTRAL AZ FROM THE NORTHWEST LATE LAST EVENING. THE COMBINATION OF
A COLD FRONT AND LONG LIVED CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS MOVED THROUGH THE
GREATER PHOENIX AREA BETWEEN 1030 PM AND MIDNIGHT PRODUCING WIND
GUSTS TO 44 MPH AT WILLIAMS GATEWAY AIRPORT...AND 43 MPH AT PHOENIX
SKY HARBOR AIRPORT...LUKE AIR FORCE BASE...AND DEER VALLEY AIRPORTS.
ITS INTERESTING THAT MOST OF THE GREATER PHOENIX AREA SAW RAINFALL
OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THUNDERSTORMS SEEMED TO HAVE LEAP-FROG OVER
PHOENIX WITH NUMEROUS STRIKES NOTED IN PINAL COUNTY BETWEEN CASA
GRANDE AND QUEEN CREEK...INCLUDING SACATON AND COOLIDGE AROUND 11 PM.

THE NEGATIVE TILT DIFLUENT TROF WILL CONTINUE TO WORK ITS WAY
THROUGH AZ THIS MORNING AND INTO NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. AS A
RESULT...SCT LIGHT SHOWERS WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY FROM PHOENIX EAST AND SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH
AFTERNOON...THEN BE CONFINED MAINLY OVER MOUNTAINOUS OF SOUTHERN
GILA COUNTY ZONE 24 THIS EVENING.

TONIGHT...A FEW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY THIS EVENING...OTHERWISE MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA...SOUTHEAST CA TO SOUTH CENTRAL AZ.
THE ONLY PROBLEM AREA WILL BE MODERATELY STRONG POST FRONTAL NORTH
WINDS DOWN THE COLORADO RIVER TONIGHT IN THE 15 TO 25 MPH RANGE.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT IS WILL DEVELOP
MONDAY AND TUESDAY FOLLOWED BY A BUILDING RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WITH A STRONG WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED. AFTERNOON TEMPS ON THE WARMEST DESERTS SHOULD APPROACH 100
DEGREES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...DRY WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH A LITTLE COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

AVIATION DISCUSSION...

SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA INCLUDING KPHX...KIWA...AND KSDL... MAIN
FRONTAL FEATURE AND PREDOMINANT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS CLEARED MOSTLY
EAST OF THE PHX METRO. WINDS IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL
BE MUCH CALMER IN TERMS OF SPEEDS AND ON THE MORE VARIABLE SIDE IN
TERMS OF HEADINGS. THERE MAY BE SOME SUBTLE DRIFT TO EAST HEADING
TOWARDS SUNRISE...AS RAIN COOLED AIR FLOWS INTO THE METRO FROM THE
HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST...HOWEVER SPEEDS SHOULD STILL REMAIN ON
THE LIGHT SIDE AND UNDER 6KTS EVEN IF EAST HEADINGS ARE REALIZED.
MID-LEVEL CIGS AOA 8-10KFT WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITH SOME
POCKETS OF FEW-SCT PATCHES AROUND 5KFT. ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG WEST
WINDS PROGGED LATER TOWARDS MIDDAY...WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT RANGE
POSSIBLE AGAIN.


SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST ARIZONA INCLUDING KIPL AND
KBLH... MAIN WEATHER ISSUE IN THE TAFS WILL BE GUSTY WEST WINDS
TONIGHT...AND WE MAY SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30KT THROUGH 05Z OR
SO BEFORE THEY START TO TAPER OFF. FOR THE MOST PART EXPECT VIS
VALUES AOA 6SM FOR THE REST OF TONIGHT AS WINDS SLOWLY TAPER OFF.
MAY SEE A FEW CIGS AROUND 8-10K FEET AT KBLH THROUGH MIDNIGHT WITH A
SHOWER POSSIBLE...BUT THEN CLEARING WILL OCCUR AS THE MAIN TROF
EXITS TO THE EAST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT KBLH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS
SURFACE WINDS TAPER OFF BELOW 12KT...BUT 35KT NORTHWEST WINDS SET UP
JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE. HAVE MENTIONED THIS IN THE KBLH TAF. EXPECT
A RETURN TO GUSTY NORTHWEST/NORTH WINDS DOWN THE RIVER SUNDAY WITH
OCCASIONAL GUSTS ABOVE 25KT POSSIBLE. BREEZY WEST WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCUR AT KIPL SUNDAY...UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR AMENDED TAFS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING
TROUGH...NEXT WEEK WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE SOUTHWESTERN CONUS FROM MONDAY THROUGH MOST OF THE WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SUBSTANTIALLY AND APPROACH THE TRIPLE DIGIT
MARK FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. AFTERNOON HUMIDITIES WILL DROP
INTO THE LOWER TEENS AND UPPER SINGLE DIGITS WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE GNLY LIGHT AND SHOULD FOLLOW
TYPICAL DIURNAL PATTERNS.

&&


VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/PHOENIX

DISCUSSION...VASQUEZ
AVIATION...NOLTE
FIRE WEATHER...NOLTE/LEINS



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