Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 041816
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT MON MAY 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES SLIGHTLY. COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA TUESDAY NIGHT...THEN LIFTS NORTH LATE
WEDNESDAY.  TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AT 18Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT IN LWR MI NEAR ARB AND IN NRN IL NEAR
ORD.  BASING FORECAST ON FRONT SAGS SOUTH TO NEAR I-70 CORRIDOR AND
OUR PERRY COUNTY BY 00Z WEDNESDAY...OR THE END OF THIS NEAR TERM.
A BIT MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS DURG TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WILL
CONTINUE WITH ABOUT 40 POP ACROSS THE NORTH.

MEANWHILE...TONIGHT...WEAK MID LEVEL 500 MB DISTURBANCES MOVING EAST
INTO THE RIDGE...BUT HEIGHTS STILL TRYING TO RISE.  SO FAIRLY WEAK
SUPPORT...AND LIMITED MOISTURE...THOUGH HAVE SURFACE DEWS INCREASING
INTO THE 50S.

WILL GENERALLY STAY AOB NAM AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE POPS...BUT STILL
AROUND A 40 POP MOVING W TO E ACROSS EASTERN OHIO AND OUR NORTHERN
WV COUNTIES TONIGHT FOR SHOWERS.  COOLEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE IN THE
SOUTH WITH LESS CLOUDS AND WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLS THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FOR THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

WARM FRONT WILL OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH ALONG THE NORTHERN CWA
BOUNDARY WITH PBZ THROUGH MID WEEK WHICH WILL DICTATE THE CHANCES
FOR CONVECTION EACH AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP CONSISTENCY WITH THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR DAYS 2 AND 3 WITH HIGH CHANCE VALUES OVER
NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. ALSO KEEPING POPS IN
THE ELEVATED HEAT SOURCE REGIONS IN OUR EASTERN HIGHLANDS.

CONVECTION MAY OR MAY NOT INITIATE IN OUR CWA...BUT 0-6KM BULK SHEAR
VECTORS INDICATE STORMS WILL ADVECT INTO OUR AREA ACROSS THE NORTH.
THIS IS TRUE FOR BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE SURFACE FLOW THURSDAY...AND HAVE ONLY
CHANCES FOR CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

SPC KEEPS ANY RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER WELL NORTH AND WEST FOR THE
CWA.

IN THE MEANT TIE...TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CREEP UPWARDS...WITH THE
LOWLANDS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL NOT DROP
OUT OF THE 60S BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS.  A FRONT SHOULD BE LOCATED JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  THE
BOUNDARY SHOULD THEN PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE AREA AS AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE LIFTS NORTHEAST INTO CANADA.  THIS WILL LEAVE THE
FORECAST AREA IN THE WARM SECTOR. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...HIGH PRESSURE
 SHOULD BE IN CONTROL.  THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME MAINLY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING STORMS POSSIBLE.  HOWEVER...MUCH OF THE REGION WILL REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO MEDIUM.  WITH FRONT STILL WELL TO THE
NORTH...TRYING TO STAY BELOW GUIDANCE IN COVERAGE OF SHOWERS
OVERNIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK 500 MB DISTURBANCES TRYING TO RIDE
EAST INTO THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...500 MB HEIGHTS DO NOT EVEN LOWER.

HAVE CEILINGS BECOMING 4 TO 8 THSD FT BKN IN EASTERN OHIO AND
NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA OVERNIGHT FROM WEST TO EAST. INCLUDED A VCSH
FOR PKB TO CKB.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPING TOWARD END OF THIS TAF PERIOD...OR 18Z
TUESDAY.  THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN OHIO OR NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA BUT THINKING AFTER 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SHOWER COVERAGE COULD BE MORE THAN FORECAST
OVERNIGHT TO 12Z TUESDAY...WITH SOME BRIEF 5 MILES VSBY EASTERN
OHIO AND NORTHERN WV.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB









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