Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 190042
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
842 PM EDT SAT APR 18 2015

.UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGE DEPICTS A SLOW EASTWARD PROGRESSION
TO THE MID-UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHEAST
COLORADO THIS EVENING. A TRIO OF JET STREAKS WILL DETERMINE THE
FATE OF THIS UPPER LOW WHICH WILL INEVITABLY IMPACT THE WEATHER
ACROSS FLORIDA. AN 80 KNOT JET STREAK ENTERING MONTANA UPSTREAM
FROM THE UPPER LOW ... COMBINED WITH A 100 KNOT STREAK STRETCHING
FROM NORTHEAST TEXAS TO SOUTHERN MISSOURI ... AND A 120 KNOT
STREAK ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO WILL ALL ENABLE THE UPPER VORTEX TO
WEAKEN AND OPEN UP TO THE EAST OVER THE SOUTH- CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES AND LIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH SUNDAY
AND BECOME ABSORBED WITHIN A LONGWAVE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE
GREAT LAKES STATES MON-WED. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF LEAN TOWARD A
STALLED OR QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT/SHEAR AXIS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITHIN THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE BROAD
CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE GREAT LAKES LOW PROVIDING INCREASED CLOUD
COVER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR RAINFALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
HIGH RESOLUTION MODEL VISIBILITY PROBABILIY OUTPUT SUGGESTS
ANOTHER MORNING OF PATCHY LOW STRATUS BELOW 1000 FEET OVER THE
SOUTHERN TERMINALS WITH AREAS OF BR. GIVEN THE ADDITIONAL CIRRUS
STREAMING OVERHEAD FROM THE APPROACHING TROUGH AND CONVECTIVE
DEBRIS OVER THE NORTHERN/NORTHEAST GULF OF MEXICO WILL HOLD OFF ON
MENTION OF FG OR MIFG IN THE TAFS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO FLAGS EXPECTED AS A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER THE WEST-CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED LATER TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY WITH A MODERATE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO CEDAR KEY CLOSER TO THE
FRONTAL GRADIENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES AND WINDS
REMAIN BELOW THRESHOLDS. RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL BE INCREASING
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY-MID NEXT WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  74  86  74  83 /   0  20  20  50
FMY  73  89  73  87 /   0  10  20  60
GIF  72  89  71  85 /  20  50  20  60
SRQ  73  86  73  82 /   0  10  20  60
BKV  68  87  69  84 /   0  40  20  50
SPG  75  85  75  82 /   0  10  20  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...10/LAMARRE
DECISION SUPPORT...02/GARCIA
UPPER AIR/OBSERVATIONS...007/DOUGHERTY



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